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Framing Analytic Requirements with Decision Modeling

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One of the most important steps in a predictive analytic effort is correctly framing the problem a way that creates a shared understanding of the business problem across business, IT and analytics teams. A decision requirements model makes it clear how to best leverage analytics. Watch the webinar recording at http://decisionmanagement.omnovia.com/archives/223762

Published in: Data & Analytics

Framing Analytic Requirements with Decision Modeling

  1. 1. Framing Analytic Requirements with Decision Modeling JamesTaylor CEO
  2. 2. Your Presenter – James Taylor CEO of Decision Management Solutions We work with clients to improve their business by applying analytic technology to automate & improve decisions I have spent the last 12 years championing Decision Management and developing Decision Management Systems ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 2@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  3. 3. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 3 Today: Insight Without Impact Beautiful visualizations Powerful predictions Gut decision-making Dumb enterprise applications @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  4. 4. Today: Requirements Telephone Decision Makers ask for data or analysis But the analysis does not help them make the decision So they ask for more data or different analysis But that doesn’t help either so they ask for yet another view And when that doesn’t help they stop using BI and do something in Excel … ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 4@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  5. 5. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 5 Today: Workflow Thinking Identifying decisions in workflows does not define decision making Workflows show When decisions are made Who makes decisions What information they use What the consequences are Workflow doesn’t show HOW @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  6. 6. Decisions First
  7. 7. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 7 Decision AND Workflow Thinking Explicitly shows Information used Questions answered Policies, regulations used Role of analytics Adding Decision Modeling explains HOW a decision is made @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  8. 8. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 8 From Decision To Data Decision Analytic Insight Data …not the other way around @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  9. 9. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions Example: Hold or sell distressed mortgage Information Knowledge Decision Precise Definition Link to analytic Identify decision to be improved Uses a non-technical notation @jamet123 #decisionmgt 9
  10. 10. Why Frame Predictive Analytic Projects? Provides “structure” (who, what, how, when) Provides “transparency” of decision process Promotes “buy in” Fosters innovation Standardizes approach to decision making Provides an audit trail for decisions Improves/changes the business model Steve Knode, University of Maryland University College ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 10@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  11. 11. Decision-Centric Analytic Requirements
  12. 12. Business Requirements for Analytics Decision Modeling focuses on business needs first Decision Models identify information, knowledge needs ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 12 Decision Model Information Architecture User Interface Design Knowledge Architecture Implementation @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  13. 13. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 13 Business Case and Project Comparison Analytic Decisions KPIs Processes and Systems Organizations Monitoring @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  14. 14. Find The Analytics That Work Ask If Only… If only we knew if this customer is unhappy If only we knew if this piece of equipment was going to fail soon If only we knew where we were most likely to get a delivery this afternoon If only we knew if this provider was ripping us off … ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 14@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  15. 15. If Only We Knew What They’d Accept ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 15@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  16. 16. If Only We Knew Who Was Loyal ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 16@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  17. 17. Link Analytics Explicitly To Action ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 17 Identify decision to be improved Uses a non-technical notation Model can be built by business analysts @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  18. 18. Re-use Across Projects Every project builds a model Models are cumulative, adding to organizational understanding Common decisions and the analytics that support them are identified Business-level reuse ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 18@jamet123 #decisionmgt Shared Models
  19. 19. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 19 Manage Business Performance Decision Models link Business Performance to Execution Improve Cross-Sell @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  20. 20. The Business Impact of Information ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 20 Data Warehouse What information don’t we store? What information can’t we integrate? What information must now be analyzed? @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  21. 21. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 21 An Advanced Analytic Methodology CRISP-DM @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  22. 22. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 22 "This is the critical path to monetizing advanced models." - Head of Analytics "Decision modeling enables us to model our business by dividing it into concrete parts that are understandable to business people without being too detailed.“ - Process Director "What used to be one week of requirements work was done in a few hours." – Lead Business Analyst @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  23. 23. Getting Started with Decision Modeling
  24. 24. Decision Modeling and Notation (DMN) “… provide a common notation that is readily understandable by all business users... DMN creates a standardized bridge for the gap between the business decision design and decision implementation.” Use Cases Modeling Human Decision-making Modeling Requirements for automated Decision-making Implementing automated Decision-making Finalized OMG Specification – a peer to BPMN Decision Management Solutions, EscapeVelocity, FICO, IBM, KPI, KUL, Model Systems, Oracle,TIBCO, Visumpoint ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 24@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  25. 25. Define Decisions Describe Decisions with A question Possible answers ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 25 Q: Which marketing offer should be presented to this customer during this interaction? A: Any current, available marketing offer in the database @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  26. 26. Map Decisions To KPIs KPIs impacted by decision Customer Churn Customer Service Calls Service Availability … … What is the best up sell/cross- sell for this customer? * * What is the price of this service? * * Can this customer buy this service? * * What retention offer should we make this customer? * … ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 26@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  27. 27. Map Decisions To Organizations Own Who specifies how the decision should be made? They will have to approve your analytics Make Who must make these decisions day to day? They will have to believe your analytics Impacted by Who is impacted e.g. because their KPIs are impacted? They care about results ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 27@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  28. 28. Put Decisions In Context Business Processes Business Events Existing Systems Which business processes need decisions made? When will decisions be required? Your analytics will need to be correct at that moment Where will you have to deploy your analytics? ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 28@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  29. 29. Decisions Require Information What Information is needed? Transaction Data Case Data Reference Data ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 29@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  30. 30. Decisions Require Knowledge How to make this decision What tells me what I must do? What tells me what I should do? What tells me what I can do? What tells me what I will probably do? What would help me do it better? ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 30@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  31. 31. Decisions Require Decisions Describe Decisions by modeling the other decisions that must be made first ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 31@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  32. 32. A Decision Requirements Diagram ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 32 Top Level Decision Input Data Knowledge Sources Additional Precision Gaps Specificity Additional Requirements @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  33. 33. A Complete Decision Definition Definition Question and Allowed Answers Purpose andValue – KPIs impacted Processes, Events, Systems Organizations Decomposition Decisions Input Data Knowledge Sources ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 33@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  34. 34. Framing Predictive Analytic Projects Provides “structure” (who, what, how, when) Provides “transparency” of decision process Promotes “buy in” Fosters innovation Standardizes approach to decision making Provides an audit trail for decisions Improves/changes the business model Steve Knode, University of Maryland University College ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 34@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  35. 35. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 35 Lessons Learned Decision Models frame and communicate analytic requirements accurately Decision Models are accessible to all teams involved, building shared understanding Decision models show how analytics will add value and deliver business impact The requirements for deployment and usage are clear @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  36. 36. Questions?
  37. 37. Takeaways
  38. 38. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 38 Lessons Learned Decision Models frame and communicate analytic requirements accurately Decision Models are accessible to all teams involved, building shared understanding Decision models show how analytics will add value and deliver business impact The requirements for deployment and usage are clear @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  39. 39. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 39 Decision Management Solutions Providing Decision Management consulting and training since 2009 DMN Submitter BABOK ® Contributor IIBA Endorsed Education Provider Recognized experts in decision management Services Free Resources Consulting Decision Modeling Software and Services Training and Workshops http://decisionmanagementsolutions.com info@decisionmanagementsolutions.com @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  40. 40. Example Engagements Predictive Analytics Project FramingWorkshops Decision Discovery Workshops Decision Modeling Capability Rollout Center of Excellence Decision Modeling Services ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 40@jamet123 #decisionmgt
  41. 41. DecisionsFirst Modeler A collaborative decision modeling software that conforms to the new Decision Model and Notation (DMN) standard. ©2015 Decision Management Solutions 41 DecisionsFirst Modeler is available as a free BasicVersion (SaaS) and a paid Enterprise Edition (SaaS or on-premise). Sign up at www.decisionsfirst.com @jamet123 #decisionmgt
  42. 42. Thank You JamesTaylor, CEO james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com

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