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Measuring the Impacts of theNational Flood Insurance ProgramJames P. Howard, IIUniversity of Maryland Baltimore Countyhowa...
Flood Disaster Management Flood recovery   Insurance program/payout   Federally administered   Privately financed Flo...
Benefit-Cost Analysis     Analytical Method                      Data Estimates social costs and    County-level data  b...
Theoretical Models       Flood Insurance             Flood Mitigation Benefits                   Benefits transfer   In...
Valuing Flood Insurance   ∆S = ∆C + ∆P + ∆G + ∆E              ⇓     ∆S = κ(e + m) + φϖπ
Valuing Flood Mitigation     BCR = 5.0 at 2% SDR              ⇓     ≅17.4% annualized
$16.7 Billion Covers 1996-2009 Represents net benefits from nationwide data Preliminary, baseline figure Does not cons...
Future Directions Sensitivity analysis to find bounds of value Social weighting by impact quality Break-even analysis ...
Acknowledgements        Photo Credits                  Advising and Review Brisbane City Council              Prof. Scot...
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Measuring the Impacts of the National Flood Insurance Program

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Presented at the Eleventh William and Mary Graduate Research Symposium.

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Measuring the Impacts of the National Flood Insurance Program

  1. 1. Measuring the Impacts of theNational Flood Insurance ProgramJames P. Howard, IIUniversity of Maryland Baltimore Countyhoward5@umbc.edu or jh@jameshoward.usWilliam and Mary Graduate Research Symposium23 March 2012
  2. 2. Flood Disaster Management Flood recovery  Insurance program/payout  Federally administered  Privately financed Flood mitigation  Dams, flood control  Building codes  Planning laws
  3. 3. Benefit-Cost Analysis Analytical Method Data Estimates social costs and  County-level data benefits  Provided by FEMA Monetizes social costs and benefits  Includes insurance financial statements Uses social discounting  Grant program information
  4. 4. Theoretical Models Flood Insurance Flood Mitigation Benefits  Benefits transfer  Insurance payments  Uses estimates of other  Administrative fees mitigation projects  Tax benefits  Scales-up estimates to national level  Willingness-to-pay  Assumes estimate is broadly Costs applicable across time  Insurance premiums  Environmental impacts
  5. 5. Valuing Flood Insurance ∆S = ∆C + ∆P + ∆G + ∆E ⇓ ∆S = κ(e + m) + φϖπ
  6. 6. Valuing Flood Mitigation BCR = 5.0 at 2% SDR ⇓ ≅17.4% annualized
  7. 7. $16.7 Billion Covers 1996-2009 Represents net benefits from nationwide data Preliminary, baseline figure Does not consider social impact factors Should not be used for policymaking
  8. 8. Future Directions Sensitivity analysis to find bounds of value Social weighting by impact quality Break-even analysis Incorporation of different estimators  Willingness-to-pay for flood insurance  Benefit-cost ratios for flood mitigation projects
  9. 9. Acknowledgements Photo Credits Advising and Review Brisbane City Council  Prof. Scott Farrow, UMBC United States Fish and Wildlife Service Grant Support  University of Maryland Baltimore County Graduate Student Association

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