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The local JSNA and its evolution 30 March 2011, Birmingham Jim McManus Joint Director of Public Health
The Search for perfection <ul><li>In an ideal world a JSNA would aggregate up </li></ul><ul><li>In the real world we come ...
The Next Ten Years <ul><ul><li>Older population will grow at less than national average but BME elders will double. Curren...
Some Issues <ul><li>What is the intention of the JSNA and Why?  </li></ul><ul><li>Support the  investment  and the long te...
Our Approach <ul><li>Thematic rather than a single document </li></ul><ul><li>Regular work periodically updated </li></ul>...
The History <ul><li>2008  “skin of our teeth”  - a review document </li></ul><ul><li>Dec 2008 – Stakeholders meetings </li...
 
Current Model Current Model
JSNA Achievements <ul><li>Health profiles for City and PCTs </li></ul><ul><li>Childrens’ JSNA </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast 5...
SWOT <ul><li>Strengths </li></ul><ul><li>Prioritisation process </li></ul><ul><li>Thematic Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Avai...
JSNA Priorities <ul><li>Link between poverty and health </li></ul><ul><li>Population change will bring new challenges to 2...
Next Five to Ten Years <ul><li>Next Five Years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic downturn and ceasing new housing development...
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JSNA Summary Birmingham

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Key findings and messages from Birmingham\'s JSNA

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JSNA Summary Birmingham

  1. 1. The local JSNA and its evolution 30 March 2011, Birmingham Jim McManus Joint Director of Public Health
  2. 2. The Search for perfection <ul><li>In an ideal world a JSNA would aggregate up </li></ul><ul><li>In the real world we come top down, with data which is late…… </li></ul>
  3. 3. The Next Ten Years <ul><ul><li>Older population will grow at less than national average but BME elders will double. Currently some older peoples services predominate with white elders.(Source: Demographic modelling) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Young population will grow by 26% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Health and Social Care workforce may not keep pace with need for it – need to enhance efforts, net outward migration of young people will create workforce challenges.(Source: Demographic modelling crosstabulated with core economic assessment) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Private rented housing sector currently houses those most affected by health inequalities. Regulation and quality of this sector needs to change to improve health outcomes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>City Ecosystem may become less hospitable – more flooding, more heat islands, poorer air quality (Source: University of Birmingham) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economy will continue to change requiring a workforce with more adaptable skills- increasing competition in our core areas of industry and service from global competitors </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Some Issues <ul><li>What is the intention of the JSNA and Why? </li></ul><ul><li>Support the  investment  and the long term vision </li></ul><ul><li>What we have done:   the thematic approach? </li></ul><ul><li>Create the leadership to promote the changes </li></ul><ul><li>The process does not finish with a report </li></ul><ul><li>Where we are going </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Evolution from  descriptive figures to actions and plans--> Outcomes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More involvement -commissioning and local leaders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve the linkage and collection of evidences </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Our Approach <ul><li>Thematic rather than a single document </li></ul><ul><li>Regular work periodically updated </li></ul><ul><li>Detailed reports and summary reports </li></ul>Ambitions yet to realise <ul><li>Point and click interactive environment </li></ul><ul><li>Wikki technology for co-production </li></ul>
  6. 6. The History <ul><li>2008 “skin of our teeth” - a review document </li></ul><ul><li>Dec 2008 – Stakeholders meetings </li></ul><ul><li>Dec 2008 – JSNA Board (Chaired by NHS CEO, stakeholders across sectors on it) </li></ul><ul><li>Jan 2009 – JSNA priorities </li></ul>
  7. 8. Current Model Current Model
  8. 9. JSNA Achievements <ul><li>Health profiles for City and PCTs </li></ul><ul><li>Childrens’ JSNA </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast 5 and 10 years </li></ul><ul><li>Health profiles for every Ward </li></ul><ul><li>Health Profiles for every Priority Neighbourhood </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change Work </li></ul><ul><li>Citywide overview </li></ul><ul><li>Population Modelling Tool </li></ul><ul><li>CVD Modelling Tool </li></ul><ul><li>Scrutiny overview of commissioning </li></ul><ul><li>JSNA Board – agreed priorities </li></ul><ul><li>User involvement (patchy but some good stuff) </li></ul><ul><li>Done with little dedicated funds </li></ul><ul><li>Resource Bank </li></ul><ul><li>Controversy </li></ul>
  9. 10. SWOT <ul><li>Strengths </li></ul><ul><li>Prioritisation process </li></ul><ul><li>Thematic Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Available online </li></ul><ul><li>Learning in user and citizen engagement </li></ul><ul><li>Weaknesses </li></ul><ul><li>Some stakeholders haven’t taken part in the process but chimed in from sidelines </li></ul><ul><li>Local data partially available but still top down </li></ul><ul><li>Need more champions in organisations </li></ul><ul><li>Formats </li></ul>Opportunities Threats <ul><li>Data from bottom up </li></ul><ul><li>Stakeholders still often cannot agree what they want </li></ul>
  10. 11. JSNA Priorities <ul><li>Link between poverty and health </li></ul><ul><li>Population change will bring new challenges to 2026 </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic shift in investment to prevention </li></ul><ul><li>Some good progress – education outcomes, </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce CVD related deaths and improve early detection </li></ul><ul><li>Address the common risk factors for the six biggest killers </li></ul><ul><li>Bring young people out of poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Disabled people and social care </li></ul><ul><li>Continue social housing work </li></ul><ul><li>More universal services for children and adults to prevent drift into specialist services </li></ul><ul><li>Improve life for Older People – transport and isolation especially </li></ul>
  11. 12. Next Five to Ten Years <ul><li>Next Five Years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic downturn and ceasing new housing developments meaning squeezing both luxury and keyworker affordable ends of market. Council tax pool in higher bands of rating will grow less fast meaning council tax income hit. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assessment of PCT strategic plans mean a reversal of current real terms growth. Could be equivalent to net 23% cuts over 3 years (Source: Institute of Fiscal Studies) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenario planning for means £40 - £65m gap between demand and provision if transformation does not work (Source:LSE) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Current infrastructures of statutory bodies will become difficult to sustain financially against a picture of developing need </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing and diverging need and insufficient money to meet it </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Next Ten Years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Older population will grow at less than national average but BME elders will double. Source: Demographic modelling) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Young population will grow by 26% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Health and Social Care workforce may not keep pace with need for it – need to enhance efforts, net outward migration of young people will create workforce challenges.(Source: Demographic modelling crosstabulated with core economic assessment) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Public sector housing stock achieved decency but private rented housing sector now a priority for those affected by health inequalities. Regulation and quality of this sector needs to change to improve health outcomes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>City Ecosystem may become less hospitable – more flooding, more heat islands, poorer air quality (Source: PHIT/Bucanneer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economy will continue to change requiring a workforce with more adaptable skills- increasing competition in our core areas of industry and service from global competitors (Source: Economic overview) </li></ul></ul>

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