Patterns of Aspiration: An ABM of school choice

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Presented by James Millington at IGU 2013 (http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/research/events/conferences/applied-gis-and-spatial-modelling/)

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Patterns of Aspiration: An ABM of school choice

  1. 1. http://landscapemodelling.netJames D.A. MillingtonKing’s College LondonPatterns of AspirationSpatial agent-based simulationof school choice policyIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  2. 2. School Choice and Admissions Distance-based admissions policies hierarchies of school popularity lead to the reproduction of social inequalityhttp://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  3. 3. The Admissions Processhttp://landscapemodelling.net Other boroughs account for: Special Educational Needs Medical/Social Needs SiblingsIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  4. 4. Empirical Patternshttp://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  5. 5. Empirical Patternshttp://landscapemodelling.netBarking AbbeyWarrenIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  6. 6. Empirical Patternshttp://landscapemodelling.netBarking AbbeyWarrenIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  7. 7. Empirical Patternshttp://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  8. 8. Parental Aspirationhttp://landscapemodelling.net“I don’t want my kids towork in the supermarket.I want my sons tobecome a doctor, or apilot or something likethat.” [p.102]“I just want them to behappy and enjoy their lifeand obviously, yes, dowell at school but so longas they’re happy” [p.104]IGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  9. 9. Parental Aspiration“I think [education is] reasonably important. Iwouldn’t put it up there as really top ranked justbecause, you know, I think there’s moreimportant things in a child’s life. As long as yourchild is well adjusted and doesn’t suffer inschool think, you know, the school isappropriate” [p.105]“Oh, the single most important thing that aparent can give to their children in life is a first-class education” [p.98]http://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  10. 10. Parental Aspiration“My gift to my children…you could sayinheritance, what I pass on to them, is thatthey’ve all achieved a university education. Ifthey’ve done that then I’ll feel I’ve done my bitas a parent” [p.101]“I’d like [my daughter] to go to university but ifshe didn’t it wouldn’t be the end of the world.”[p.104]http://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  11. 11. Model Structurehttp://landscapemodelling.net Family Attributes Aspiration Child Age Location Attainment Strategy Rankings Catchment (schools) Satisfactory (schools) Avoided (schools) School Attributes Value-added Location GCSE score Available Places List of applicants List of allocated pupils(i.e., families)IGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  12. 12. Model Procedures Families rank schools for moving & applying Families can move once prior to application Move anywhere or only into areas with lower orequal aspiration (location constraints) Schools allocate places to applicants basedon distance alone School value-added influences pupilattainmenthttp://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  13. 13. School Ranking StrategiesCriteriaCatchment Satisfactory AvoidedRankingCatchmentSatisfactoryAvoidedOther Schoolshttp://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  14. 14. School Ranking StrategiesCriteriaCatchment Satisfactory Avoided[not empty] [empty] [not empty]RankingCatchmentSatisfactoryAvoidedOther Schoolshttp://landscapemodelling.net1st by GCSE descendingN/ARemove from ranking2nd by distance ascendingIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  15. 15. Model Analysis Reproduction of system-level patterns Identify necessary structures and rules Identify agent-level patterns Which agents move? Which agents fail to secure preferred school? Explore implications of policy scenarios Closing poor schools Improving school value-addedhttp://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  16. 16. System-Level Analysis What conditions needed to reproduceempirical system-level patterns? Variation in school value-added? Constraints on family movement? Examine combinations of rules No value-added (nVA), no location constraints (nLC) Value-added (VA), no location constraints (nLC) No value-added (nVA), location constraints (LC) Value-added (VA), movement constraints (LC)http://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  17. 17. http://landscapemodelling.netnLC nVA nLC VALC nVA LC VAIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  18. 18. http://landscapemodelling.net20 40 60 80GCSE score0246810A:Pratio20 40 60 80GCSE score0246810A:PratioIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  19. 19. http://landscapemodelling.netA:P ratio2 4 6 8 100020406080100Max.DistanceA:P ratio2 4 6 8 100020406080100Max.DistanceIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  20. 20. Parent-Level Analysis What are consequences of system-levelpatterns at agent-level? ABM without agent-level analysis under-utilisesthe approach Identification of agent-level patterns tosearch for empirically Not predicting from past to future Predicting from ‘known to unknown’http://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  21. 21. Which parents move?http://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  22. 22. Which parents succeed?http://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  23. 23. Scenario Analysis Explore implications of policy scenarios Examine consequent patterns at system-level andagent-level Closing poorest school Re-allocate pupils to ‘best’ school Re-allocate pupils to all schools Improving all schools’ value-added Implications for parent allocation strategies andsuccesshttp://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  24. 24. A:PratioGCSE score20 20 2080 80 80010Scenario: remove ‘poorest’ schoolhttp://landscapemodelling.netPoorest to Best Poorest to AllNo RemovalIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  25. 25. Scenario: improve schools’ VAhttp://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  26. 26. Scenario: improve schools’ VAhttp://landscapemodelling.netIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  27. 27. Future directions Simulating reproduction of social inequality? Ethnicity? Religion? Class? Wealth? Definition of a ‘good’ school? GCSE score used here – but what other factors? ‘Gaming the system’? And other options (e.g., leaving state schooling)http://landscapemodelling.netAspirationIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13
  28. 28. Summary ABM of school allocation policy Results support arguments about drivers ofempirical (system-level) patterns Agent-level patterns identified to exploreempiricallyhttp://landscapemodelling.netjames.millington@kcl.ac.uk@jamesmillingtonIGU 2013 | Leeds, UK | 01/06/13

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