Pragyan Talk 100227

1. Regaining Intellectual Leadership Ramesh Jain  jain@ics.uci.edu  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 1

2. A New Star   Who is on Left? Who is on Right? Where is K R Sridhar from? REC, Trichy. Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 2

3. Discussion Today  •  Personal note  •  India: Then and Now  •  Some facts  •  Sharing and disseminaAng Experiences  •  Role of Technology  •  An Opportunity  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 3

4. Personal Note: A passage  •  Spent ﬁrst 12 years of life reading in candle light.   Now … read on Kindle among other things.  •  As a Regional College of Engineering (Nagpur)  student, was against leaving India.  But,  ended  up (with the privilege of) experiencing the East  and the West and more.  •  Would love to contribute my bit.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 4

5. A journey in life begins with understanding:  •  Where you are,   •  Where you want to be, and   •  What are constraints and techniques  available.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 5

6. And Then  •  Be Passionate about the goal,  •  Think out‐of‐the‐box,   •  Be irreverent, and  •  Think the Unthinkable and just do it.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 6

7. Einstein  •  Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for  tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop  quesAoning.   •  Once we accept our limits, we go beyond  them.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 7

8. Leadership of India: Well recognized  India had the start of the whole world in the beginning of  things. She had the ﬁrst civiliza8on; she had the ﬁrst  accumula8on of material wealth; she was populous with  deep thinkers and subtle intellects; she had mines, and  woods, and a frui?ul soul.   Mark Twain Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 8

9. Nalanda  •  The ﬁrst great university in recorded history.  •  Started in 5th Century.   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 9

10. Today the country that created  Nalanda:  •  Literacy rate 61% ‐‐ 147th out of 177 Countries  •  No Indian University in top 100 in the World  •  Even among Asian universiAes the ﬁrst name  appears at 30th place.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 10

11. Mohenjo‐daro and Harappa  2600 BC  •  Top ciAes in the world.  •  Beber planned than most ciAes in India today.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 11

12. Mohenjo‐daro  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 12

13. Harappa  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 13

14. India Today    •  In Per Capita income: 165th ($3,100) out of  212 countries.  •  1.5 Personal Computers per 100 people    –  US has 76.2    –  Switzerland has 86.2 (Source:  hbp://www.naAonmaster.com/red/graph/ med_pc_percap‐media‐number‐pcs‐per‐ capita&b_map=1)  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 14

15. Thousands of Entrepreneurs   •  “our naAon, though it has no drinking water,  electricity, sewage system, public  transportaAon, sense of hygiene, discipline,  courtesy, or punctuality, does have  entrepreneurs.  Thousands and Thousands of  them.”  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 15

16. InnovaAons in India  (Vikas Bajaj in New York Times Ar4cle)   •  Mr. Raghavan and others say India is held back by a  ﬁnancial system that is reluctant to invest in  unproven ideas, an educa4on system that  emphasizes rote learning over problem solving, and  a culture that looks down on failure and  unconven4onal career choices.  •  Did you see  Three Idiots?  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 16

17. What is the most important  invenAon in the last 1000 years?  •  Einstein: Theory of relaAvity.  •  Turing: Digital Computer.  •  Curie: X‐rays  •  Gutenberg: Moveable print  •  Edison: Electric Bulb  •  .  •  .  •  .  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 17

18. It is all about  ExperienAal   CommunicaAon      among Humans  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 18

19. Events Life = + Experiences  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 19

20. Recording Experiences  •  Modes  –  Visual  –  Aural  –  Text  –  Log of acAviAes  –  TacAle  •  Technology and Sharing Experiences  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 20

21. Share experiences : Languages   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 21

22. Across Time : Writing   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 22

23. Making it portable : Paper   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 23

24. DemocraAzaAon : Gutenberg’s Movable Press   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 24

25. Telegraph: Instantaneous Remote  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 25

26. Telephone: Remote Speech  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 26

27. Photography: Recording Visual  Experience  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 27

28. Audio Recording: Electrical Signals  enter recording space   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 28

29. Radio: Live Broadcast   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 29

30. Television: Live Broadcast combines  two Media  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 30

31. Digital Processing  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 31

32. Internet: The Game Changer   Medium is the message. – McLuhan was right THEN. Medium is just that – Medium. Pragyan, February 27, 2010 NOW © Ramesh Jain 32

33. CommunicaAng Experiences:    SpaAal and Temporal   Inventions Application Impact Languages Communicate symbolic experiences Written Languages Record Symbolic experiences (time) Paper Portability (space) Most influential Print Invention in history distribution (time and space) Mass Telegraph Remote narrow communication (space) Telephone Remote analog communication (space) Radio Analog broadcasting of sound (space) Television Combining two senses – media (space) Recording media Photos, audio, video (time) Digital processing Machine enhancement and processing Future of Internet Communication Interactive Multimedia communication Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 33

34. The only source of knowledge is  experience.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 34

35. Knowledge SocieAes  The empires of the future are the empires of  the mind.                                                                                                        Winston Churchill  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 35

36. Digital World: Knowledge  RevoluAon  •  Limited to less than 15% populaAon of the  world.    •  Touches less than 2% of populaAon in  developing countries.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 36

37. Digital Dividend: An Opportunity  •  Technology is liberal in rewards and  ruthless in punishment   –  Rich get richer and poor stay poor  •  At each technology inﬂecAon point, new  leaders emerge.  •  We are in a major technology inﬂecAon  period.  Some aggressive countries have a  great opportunity.  Can that country be India? Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 37

38. Widening Gap  •  Income disparity raAo in the 18th Century  between the richest and the poorest  countries was a mere 2:1, today it is more  than 100:1.   •  In 1988, median income in the richest 10  percent of countries was 77 Ames that in  the poorest 10 percent; by 1999 the gap  had grown to 122 Ames.   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 38

39. Some InteresAng Facts:  Then and now   •  India and China  – Accounted for 40% of world trade in 1840  – Accounted for 3.4% of world trade in 1998  •  India established the ﬁrst University in the  world in Nalanda‐Taxilla  – India published less than 2% of world’s  scienAﬁc research papers (includes Indian  journals)  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 39

40. Turning Time: Almost 600 Year Ago  •  Columbus was searching for fame and fortune –  was going to India for  –  Spices  –  Wealth  –  Technology  –  Source of knowledge  •  Gutenberg invented the prinAng technology  that started  –  Growth of wealth in west  –  DominaAon of western technology  –  Inﬂuence of western knowledge  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 40

41. Why is Gutenberg’s Moveable Print so  influenAal?  •  Brought knowledge creaAon and access to  masses.  •  Resulted in increased awareness of scienAfic  approaches.  •  Reduced misinformaAon and influence of  religions.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 41

42. India missed the last disrupAve  ‘knowledge revoluAon’.   How can it parAcipate and lead the  current disrupAve wave brought on  by recent innovaAons?   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 42

43. DisrupAve Stages in CompuAng:1  Data Data: Numbers, Text, (Computation) Statistics, Sensors (Video) Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 43

44. CompuAng 1: Data  •  Device: Mainframe and workstaAons  •  Main applicaAons:  –  ScienAﬁc and engineering  –  Business  •  Users:   –  Sophis8cated  –  Expected to be trained  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 44

45. DisrupAve Stages in CompuAng:2  Information Information: Search, Specialized sources (Communication) Data Data: Numbers, Text, (Computation) Statistics, Sensors (Video) Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 45

46. CompuAng 2: InformaAon and  CommunicaAon  •  Device: PC and Internet  •  Main applicaAons:  –  InformaAon  –  CommunicaAon  •  Users:   –  Common people in ‘developed world’  –  Easy access using keyboards  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 46

47. DisrupAve Stages in CompuAng:3  Experience Experience: What Next? Direct observation or (Insights) participation Information Information: Search, Specialized sources (Communication) Data Data: Numbers, Text, (Computation) Statistics, Sensors (Video) Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 47

48. CompuAng 3: Experience  •  Device: Mobile phones  •  Main applicaAons:  –  Experience management  –  ExperienAal communicaAon  •  Users:   –  Humans  –  No language issues  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 48

49. Mobiles everywhere  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 49

50. DistribuAon of Mobile Phones   Rank Country or region Number of mobile phones Population % of population Last updated — World 4,100,000,000 6,797,100,000[1] 60.6 Dec 2008[2] 1 China 747,380,000 1,335,330,000 55.97 Dec 2009[3] 2 India 525,147,922 1,174,040,000 44.73 Dec 2009[4] 3 United States 276,610,580 308,505,000[1] 89.0 June. 2009[5] 4 Russia 207,900,000 141,915,979 143.2 Feb. 2009[6] 5 Brazil 173,960,000 191,480,630 90.84 Dec. 2009[7][8] [9] 6 Indonesia 140,200,000 231,369,500 60.53 Dec. 2008[10] 7 Japan 107,490,000 127,530,000 84.11 Mar. 2009[11] 8 Germany 107,000,000 81,882,342 130.15 2009[12] 9 Pakistan 97,579,940 168,500,500 59.60 Dec 2009[13] 10 Italy 88,580,000 60,090,400 147.41 Dec.2008[14] 11 Mexico 79,400,000 109,610,000 72.44 Mar.2009[15] 12 United Kingdom 75,750,000 61,612,300 122.95 Dec. 2008[16] 13 Vietnam 70,000,000 87,375,000 80.11 2009[17] 14 Philippines 67,900,000 92,226,600 73.62 Dec. 2008[18] 15 Turkey 66,000,000 71,517,100 92.29 2009[19] 16 Nigeria 64,000,000 154,729,000 41.36 Dec. 2009[20] 17 France 58,730,000 65,073,842 90.25 Dec. 2008[21] 18 Ukraine 55,170,908 46,143,700 119.56 April. 2009[22] 19 Thailand 51,377,000 65,000,000 79.0 2008 20 Spain 50,890,000 45,828,172 111.05 Dec. 2008[23] Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 50

51. What is a Mobile Phone?  Mobile phone used to be a phone. It is : •  Phone •  Camera and an album •  Music system •  Video Game console •  Communication device •  Personal BUTLER •  Computer •  Information source •  … much more Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 51

52. A Mobile Phone is  Everybody’s loyal personal multimedia communication and experience associate. Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 52

53. A Great Opportunity  Leading the World in bringing next  genera4on compu4ng: the Folk  Compu4ng.   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 53

54. Opportunity: Folk CompuAng  Taking CompuAng to Masses – focus on people  in remote parts of even underdeveloped parts  of the world.   Social Networking as a driving applicaAon.  May solve many interesAng problems.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 54

55. Challenges  •  InteracAon environment,  •  Content CreaAon,  •  Content Management, and   •  Content Access.  Key: Content created by culturally similar people is more useful. Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 55

56. InteracAon Environment  Keyboard is the BIGGEST problem.  Use natural communicaAon:  Audio, Visual, TacAle.  Good ﬁrst step towards Folk  CompuAng.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 56

57. Content CreaAon  •  Literacy = Knowledge  •  All the worlds knowledge is primarily in text.  •  Cameras and microphones are easier to use  than keyboard and even pen.    Develop interactive content creation tools for masses using phones.   Can we develop ‘Word’ like Photoshop and Director? Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 57

58. Content Management: Challenges   •  MulAmedia  •  Diﬀerent Languages  •  Event‐Object‐based Indexing  •  Fast access on Mobile devices  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 58

59. Access: Must be Natural   •  On Mobile phone like devices  •  My mother should be able to ‘ask’  –  Natural language – not only keywords  –  Voice/Image/Touch interfaces  •  Culturally sensiAve  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 59

62. Limited Success of most such  approaches. Why?   •  PC Based.    –  Very few PCs (less than 0.5 per 100 people)  –  PC are diﬃcult to learn for ‘users’  •  Approaches were not very ‘natural’ for ‘users’  –  Tried to push approaches successful in developed  world  •  Failed to understand needs of people and  develop appropriate applicaAons.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 62

63. mKrishi approach  An innovaAve approach by TCS.   I am working with them in this.   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 63

64. Taking the PROBLEM to an EXPERT  Using Modern Technology  •  PaAent to Doctor  •  Field to Agriculture Expert  •  ConstrucAon to Engineers  •  …  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 64

67. Query No. 1519  In Text: Grapes have turned pink in color. Please suggest the reason and medicine to be applied. Expert’s Response Meaning: Causes of Pink berry: (1) Haphazard use of fertilizer (2) Deficiency in Sulphur or access Potash (3) Pest on flowers (4) Excess use of Gibberellic acid. Pragyan, February 27,5Gm/Litre of Calcium Nitrate. Remedy: Use 2010 © Ramesh Jain 67

69. Expert Console  Info specific From public to crop website Sensor data – if applicable Voice query Ready references for expert Picture Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 69

71. Name 4 most popular companies that emerged  in the last 4 years.   •  Flickr  •  YouTube   •  Facebook  •  Twiber  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 71

72. Name 3 most popular Internet  concepts in the last 3 years.   •  Social Networks  •  Micro‐blogging (Ambient Awareness)  •  Tags  Interestingly, they did not come from Google Yahoo Microsoft or Academia. Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 72

73. InteresAng!!!   •  Flickr  •  Social Networks  •  YouTube  •  Microblogging  •  Facebook  •  Tags  •  Twiber  What does this tell us? Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 73

74. Messages are clear   People want: •  New media:  Text based media is not enough.  •  Experiences: People want to experience and  share experiences – with minimal latency.  •  Socialize: Family and friends remain a strong  inﬂuence in all facets of life.  –  Family and friends are closer to each other today  than ever!!!  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 74

75. I have a dream … Next GeneraAon of Social  Networks  For Masses in developing countries  using Folk CompuAng on Mobile  Phones.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 75

76. Knowledge and InnovaAon Sharing  Networks  •  InnovaAon Systems PerspecAve.  •  Social Networking, B2B, Wiki, Twiber  •  Put people in the centre  •  System becomes ‘intelligent’ facilitator of  learning, interacAons, communicaAons, and  collaboraAons.  •  Organic development to suit local context  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 76

78. Create KISN for    •  Agriculture  •  Health  •  EducaAon  •  Societal problems  •  . . .  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 78

79. SelecAng RaAonal over MysAcal   Jawaharlal Nehru •  “The future belongs to science and those who make friends with  science.”  •  “No country or people who are slaves to dogma and  the dogmaAc mentality can progress, and unhappily  our country and people have become  extraordinarily dogmaAc and lible‐minded”    More true today than when he said this about 60 years ago. Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 79

80. Time is Right  •  We are at a major ‘Technology InﬂecAon’ point.  •  India maybe the best place to do research in the  new wave.  •  This may be the best Ame to seed processes  leading to revoluAonary results.  •  Products developed for India are relevant to 80%  of the world – all developing countries.  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 80

81. You are in India at the Right Time.   Be ambiAous, driven, and bold and you  will bring back the Intellectual  Leadership to India.   Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 81

82. I invite you to join me in this Dream. Please join me! Thanks.  For more informa4on, comments, cri4cisms  contact:  Mail: jain@ics.uci.edu  Facebook: jain49  TwiTer:jain49  Pragyan, February 27, 2010 © Ramesh Jain 82

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