2011 outlook presentation


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2011 outlook presentation

  1. 1. Real Estate Outlook:2011<br />Sales Meeting<br />December 29, 2010<br />
  2. 2. Video<br />Housing prices likely to fall in 2011<br />CNN Money Team<br />Optimism Is Fading in U.S. Housing Market<br />Featuring Robert Shiller<br />Economics Professor at Yale University, and<br />co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Index of Property Values<br />
  3. 3. Look Back at 2010<br />1st time Home Buyer tax credit<br />Historic Affordability Levels<br />Low Mortgage Rates<br />Rising Household Incomes<br />Rising Foreclosure Rates<br />Concerns over proper foreclosure procedures<br />Attack on homeownership<br />Low Consumer Confidence<br />For Sale by Owner’s Decline to 11% of the market (Down from 13% in 2009)<br />
  4. 4. November Foreclosures in Douglas County<br />realtytrac.com<br />
  5. 5. Home Sales Price Gains<br />realtytrac.com<br />
  6. 6. www.realtor.org<br />www.trulia.com<br />
  7. 7. 5 Reasons to Buy a Home in 2011<br />Mortgage rates will stay low. <br />Tax cuts could help.<br />Americans want to be home owners. <br />Recent Fannie Mae surveys show that Americans still believe a home is a safe and desirable investment.<br />Builders are about to begin building. <br />Homes are shrinking and becoming more affordable. <br />
  8. 8. Recovery Mode<br />Trend will be a rise in home sale activity<br />Lawrence Yun with NAR:<br />Est 5.2 million existing-home sales in 2011, up from 4.8 million last year (0.09% increase)<br />Home prices to rise about 1% this year on a national basis<br />Biggest Factors: <br />Businesses Spending Money<br />Job Growth, Commercial Sales/Leases, etc.<br />Concerns: Health Care Reform, Wall Street<br />Business cash reserves have grown to the point where corporate leaders have to start deploying their money to get the kinds of returns their investors want to see.<br />Consumer Confidence<br />Will return with employment, stable home prices<br />
  9. 9. Recovery Mode<br />Majority of Americans Expect <br />housing to recover after 2012<br />realtytrac.com<br />
  10. 10. Commercial Predictions<br />
  11. 11. Residential Predictions<br />Prices & Mortgage Rates Stay Low or fall lower<br />Loan guidelines tighten up, and down payments may rise.<br />Condo’s will become even more difficult to buy<br />Most lenders require that no more than 15% of HOA members be 30 days or more behind on their dues<br />Conventional (non-FHA) loans require at least 25% of the units be owner-occupied<br />Increase in conservative buying<br />
  12. 12. Foreclosures<br />The driving force behind price declines<br />2010:<br />About one-third of home sales were Foreclosures<br />Average price discount of 26% (RealtyTrac) <br />More such sales are on the way, but estimates vary. <br />
  13. 13. Low Price Factor<br />Interest Rates @ Historically Low Levels<br />National Level: <br />Median Home Prices down 30% <br />(From $239,000 @ peak in 2006, to $172,000 @ end of 2010)<br />High Volume of Foreclosures in market<br />Yun of NAR expects foreclosed homes to account for 1/3 of sales in 2011<br />"My best guess is that this year, people will be buying a lot of the foreclosed properties, but it will still take an additional one-and-a-half years to bring the inventory down to a more normal level."<br />
  14. 14. Inventory<br />Higher Inventory= Decline in Pricing<br />Fate of Fannie and Freddie will be announced in January<br />Will there be another home buyer tax credit?<br />
  15. 15. Inflation<br />Risks of entering a period of Japanese-style deflation<br />Expectation for continuing price drops keeps people from spending<br />Biggest impact: <br />First-time buyers: If interest rates rise along with inflation, home ownership will become increasingly out of reach.<br />"Some inflation isn’t a bad thing, but high inflation isn’t optimal," Yun says. "So as long as inflation can be kept in check—and business and consumer confidence restored—look for a slow return to normalcy in the months ahead."<br />
  16. 16. 2011: Game Plan<br />Another year of Buyers Market<br />Work on Expanding your role as buyers agent<br />Market more towards buyers and investors<br />Keep working with banks on REO’s<br />Become affluent in the world of short sales<br />Always provide sellers with CMA’s in order to list at right price, or slightly underpriced<br />Keep Positive Attitude<br />
  17. 17. Real Estate Technology in 2011<br />Smart Phone Search:<br />Google Goggles<br />QR Codes<br />Real Estate Based App’s<br />Social Media, Blogging and Video Stick Around<br />
  18. 18. Good Luck in 2011!<br />