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Lecture 4 Teaching Futures, Systems and Strategic Thinking 2016

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Part of the Technologies Education course at Griffith University

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Lecture 4 Teaching Futures, Systems and Strategic Thinking 2016

  1. 1. Teaching Futures, Systems and Strategic Thinking Technologies Education
  2. 2. 6:00
  3. 3. Systems Thinking Computational Thinking Design Thinking Futures Thinking Strategic Thinking Solutions Thinking
  4. 4. Futures Thinking
  5. 5. 2:30
  6. 6. • conceptualise more just and sustainable human and planetary futures. • develop knowledge and skills in exploring probable and preferred futures. • understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures. • conscientise responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures. Why study the future
  7. 7. Fashion
  8. 8. Environmental Scans
  9. 9. Trend Analysis
  10. 10. Cyclical Pattern Analysis
  11. 11. Visioning
  12. 12. Scenarios
  13. 13. Backcasting
  14. 14. www.nmc.org Horizon Reports
  15. 15. 1:00
  16. 16. Technological Evolution Tool Age Machine Age Automation Age
  17. 17. Technological Evolution Neolithic Revolution Stone, Bronze, Iron Ages Ancient Greek, Roman, Chinese technology Medieval technology Renaissance technology Industrial Revolution Atomic Age Space Age Digital Revolution Information Age
  18. 18. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic Arthur C Clarke
  19. 19. Linear model of innovation Invention Innovation Diffusion
  20. 20. It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity Albert Einstein
  21. 21. Once a new technology rolls over you, if you’re not part of the steamroller, you’re part of the road Stewart Brand
  22. 22. 0:30
  23. 23. We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology and yet have cleverly arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. That’s a clear prescription for disaster Carl Sagan
  24. 24. Systems Thinking
  25. 25. Systems Thinking makes it possible to analyse and understand complex phenomena Systems Thinking
  26. 26. Instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to consider larger and larger numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied Systems Thinking
  27. 27. Thinking consists of two activities: constructing mental models and then simulating them in order to draw conclusions and make decisions Barry Richmond
  28. 28. Understanding the concept of a tree requires more information than is available through sensory experience alone.  It’s built on past experiences and knowledge.
  29. 29. The image of the world around us, which we carry in our head, is just a model. Nobody in his head imagines all the world… they have only selected concepts, and relationships between them, and uses those to represent the real system Jay Forrester
  30. 30. The problems we have created in the world today will not be solved by the level of thinking that created them Albert Einstein
  31. 31. We are limited in our capacity to form and reform mental models. Systems modelling allows us to move from “what” to “what if” and make our thinking visible The basic building blocks of dynamic models are stocks, flows, and loops
  32. 32. Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful George Box
  33. 33. A supermarket can be seen as any of the following kinds of systems, depending on the perspective: a "profit making system" … from the perspective of management and owners a "distribution system“… from the perspective of the suppliers an "employment system“… from the perspective of employees a "materials supply system“… from the perspective of customers an "entertainment system“… from the perspective of loiterers a "social system" …from the perspective of local residents a "dating system" …from the perspective of single customers
  34. 34. Students need learn to identify the properties of the various subsystems they explore, for example of a bicycle, and examine how they relate to the whole. Children tend to think of the properties of a system as belonging to individual parts of it rather than as arising from the interaction of the parts. A system property that arises from interaction of parts is therefore a difficult idea.
  35. 35. Students should already know that if something consists of many parts, the parts usually influence one another. Also they should be aware that something may not work as well (or at all) if a part of it is missing, broken, worn out, mismatched, or misconnected.
  36. 36. 1:00
  37. 37. Students can learn about the choices and constraints that go into the design of a bicycle system. Depending on whether the bicycle is intended for racing, mountain roads, or touring, influences its design and such choices as the type of tires, frame and materials, and drives and gears.
  38. 38. In addition, accommodating one constraint can often lead to conflict with others. For example, the lightest material may not be the strongest, or the most efficient shape may not be the safest or the most aesthetically pleasing. Therefore, every design problem lends itself to many alternative solutions, depending on what values people place on the various constraints.
  39. 39. Subsystems could include: The Wheel Drivers & Gears Frames & Materials Brakes & Steering Aerodynamics Power System
  40. 40. 1:00
  41. 41. Speed Safety Comfort Durability Endurance The Wheels Drivers and Gears Frames and Materials Brakes and Steering Aerodynamics Power System
  42. 42. Parts Function Inputs Outputs Boundaries The Wheels Drivers and Gears Frames and Materials Brakes and Steering Aerodynamics Power System
  43. 43. Wheel & Axle (subsystem) The wheel & axle transfer energy from rubber band to the surface to move the car. Rubber band (energy) Elastic potential energy will be transferred to the wheel and axle subsystem Energy Conservation Most of the energy results in motion.Some energy is transformed into heat through friction with the surface Boundaries: The Surface The Person My hand (input) A person provides the energy that is stored in the stretched rubber band. Motion (output) The car moves as a result of the energy that is put into the system. A Physical System Energy Transfer (Big Idea context) A Rubber Band Car System
  44. 44. Part Function of the part Part Function of the part Part Function of the part Predict: What if a part is missing? Function of the whole system Other systems with a part like this Name all the parts Parts & Wholes Function of the Part Predict F-2 Whole System What form of energy makes this system work?
  45. 45. Subsystem Function Subsystem Function Predict the effect of a broken subsystem (part) Inputs Changes in input Outputs What the whole system can do Subsystems Inputs & Outputs Functions & Predictions 3-4 Whole System Describe how the output will change if we change the input
  46. 46. Subsystem Subsystem Energy Output Receiving System Matter Input Predict Changes Matter Output Receiving System Energy Input Inputs & Outputs Boundaries & Flow Open & Closed Systems 5-6 Whole System Give an example of how a change in a subsystem influences the entire system Is this system closed or open? Explain. Boundaries of the system
  47. 47. Whole System Subsystems Negative Feedback? Inflow compared to outflow Feedback from output Positive Feedback? Interaction with another system Is the system in equilibrium or is it changing? Positive Feedback Negative Feedback Equilibrium 7-8 How are models of this system used to make predictions? What are the limitations of the model in accurately making predictions?
  48. 48. Behaviour (changes) over time
  49. 49. Weather
  50. 50. Weather
  51. 51. Attendance
  52. 52. Tying Shoes
  53. 53. Experiments
  54. 54. Literature
  55. 55. Literature
  56. 56. Tortoise vs the Hare
  57. 57. As you are reading, look for key words such as: change transform revolution becoming more rose went up increased got higher grew/growth gained less fell went down decreased went lower declined lost Write down one or more quotes in each box. Circle key words of change and underline what you think is changing. Draw a line graph of how the quote shows change over time. Explain why the change occurs. Identifying Change Over Time in Text Quotes from book Change over time Why this might be occurring
  58. 58. Identifying Change Over Time in Text
  59. 59. Behaviour over time
  60. 60. Behaviour over time
  61. 61. Behaviour over time
  62. 62. What important elements have changed over time? How has __________ changed over time? During what period of time have the changes occurred? Where on the y-axis should the graph start and why? How would you label the bottom/middle/top of the y-axis? What evidence supports the graph being created? Questions to ask when analysing a system that changes over time: What caused any changes in direction or slope? How are interpretations of a graphed element the same or different? What changes may happen in the future based on what has been happening? Do you see any connections (interdependencies or causal relationships) between/among graphs? Questions to consider once BOTGs have been created:
  63. 63. Stocks and Flows
  64. 64. Stocks are the foundation of any system and are the elements that you can see, feel, count, or measure Stocks do not have to be physical Stocks
  65. 65. Reservoirs
  66. 66. Reservoirs
  67. 67. Reservoirs
  68. 68. Money
  69. 69. Air Quality
  70. 70. Air Quality
  71. 71. Air Quality
  72. 72. Animal Populations
  73. 73. Animal Populations
  74. 74. Human Populations
  75. 75. Stock changes over time Increasing Decreasing Oscillating Stable
  76. 76. Stocks change over time through the actions of a flow A stock is the present memory of the changing flows within a system Flow
  77. 77. Stone Soup
  78. 78. The Waterhole
  79. 79. The Waterhole
  80. 80. The Waterhole 1:20
  81. 81. A feedback loop is formed when changes in a stock affect the flows into or out of that same stock Balancing feedback loops are stability seeking and try to keep a stock at a certain level or within a certain range Reinforcing feedback loops occur when a system element has the ability to reproduce itself or grow at a constant fraction of itself Loops
  82. 82. Population Change
  83. 83. Endangered Animals
  84. 84. Marker Pen Scarcity
  85. 85. Professional Development
  86. 86. What is a stock related to the horse in a horse race? What is a flow related to the horse in a horse race? What is the relationships between the two?
  87. 87. Stock represents an amount, e.g. distance travelled Flow represents a rate, e.g. distance/second They are related because they both relate to distance
  88. 88. What is a stock related to a freeway? What is a flow related to freeway?
  89. 89. Stocks generally are described by nouns Flow generally is described by verbs Number of cars (noun); Entering/leaving freeway (verbs)
  90. 90. Stock Flow How are they alike? How are they different?
  91. 91. Piggy Bank
  92. 92. Piggy Bank Game 1 Rule: Put 2 “coins” in, take 1 “coin” out Directions: 1. Write the rule at the top of the graph for Game 1. 2. Graph the number of “coins” in the piggy before you begin. 3. Write your prediction. 4. Round 1: Using the piggy handout, put 2 “coins” in, and then take 1 out. 5. Graph the number of “coins” left in the piggy on the line for round 1. 6. Round 2: Add two more “coins”, then take 1 away, graph... continue doing so for 3 more rounds; record the number of “coins” left at the end. 7. Was your prediction correct? Why or why not?
  93. 93. Piggy Bank Game 2 Make a new rule to save more money than in the first game but that can still be seen on the graph. Game 3 Make a new rule with money going in and out that shows how money can decrease (go down) over time.
  94. 94. Piggy Bank
  95. 95. Rats of Nimh
  96. 96. Rats of Nimh
  97. 97. Rats of Nimh
  98. 98. Rats of Nimh
  99. 99. Rats of Nimh
  100. 100. Symbols A converter holds information or relationships that affect the rate of the flows, or that affect the content of another converter A connector indicates that changes in one element cause changes in another element; only changes a stock by going through an accompanying flow A flow represents actions or processes; transports “stuff”, concrete or abstract, that directly adds to or takes away from accumulation in a stock; the verbs in the system A stock represents an accumulation, concrete or abstract, that increases or decreases over time; the nouns in the system
  101. 101. Feedback Loops
  102. 102. World Population Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
  103. 103. Avalanche Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
  104. 104. Epidemics Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
  105. 105. Rumours Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
  106. 106. Fads Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
  107. 107. Interest Rates Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
  108. 108. Confidence Decreasing or collapsing Reinforcing Feedback
  109. 109. Soil Fertility Decreasing or collapsing Reinforcing Feedback
  110. 110. Predator / Prey Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
  111. 111. Exercise Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
  112. 112. Supply and Demand Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
  113. 113. Fire Management Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
  114. 114. Cruise Control Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
  115. 115. Growing Plants Causal Loops
  116. 116. Immunisation Causal Loops
  117. 117. Connecting Loops Central B indicates a Balancing loop, R a Reinforcing loop Central + or - indicates positive (growth or decline) or negative (oscillating or seeking) loops Arrowed signs indicate the direction of causality + (adds to or changes it in same direction or - (takes from or change direction) o reverses direction or subtracts, s same direction or adds to it
  118. 118. Friendships Reinforcing Causal Loops
  119. 119. Literature Balancing Causal Loops
  120. 120. Connecting Loops 0:22
  121. 121. Food and Fibre Production Both Types of Causal Loops
  122. 122. Slavery Reinforcing Causal Loops 0:34
  123. 123. Types of loops Lilly Pads
  124. 124. Types of loops Reinforcing Feedback
  125. 125. Types of loops Body Temperature
  126. 126. Types of loops Balancing Feedback
  127. 127. Types of loops Rebellions
  128. 128. Types of loops Balancing Feedback
  129. 129. Types of loops Savings
  130. 130. Types of loops Reinforcing Feedback
  131. 131. Types of loops Cruise Control
  132. 132. Types of loops Balancing Feedback
  133. 133. Types of loops An odd number of negative (-) connections indicates a balancing loop. An even number of negative (-) connections indicates a reinforcing loop.
  134. 134. Rats of Nimh
  135. 135. Rats of Nimh
  136. 136. Rats of Nimh
  137. 137. Rats of Nimh
  138. 138. Rats of Nimh
  139. 139. Air Pollution respiratory disease air pollution (CO2) coal burned economic development factories cancer death rate coal production coal dust power stations environmental regulation pollution outsourcing to China standard of living cars natural resources Audio article and transcript
  140. 140. Air Pollution Stock/Flow Map Connection Circle finding feedback loops
  141. 141. Stock/Flow Map
  142. 142. Stock/Flow Map
  143. 143. Identifying Loops
  144. 144. Causal Loop
  145. 145. Stock/Flow Map
  146. 146. Identifying Loops
  147. 147. Causal Loop
  148. 148. Connection Circle
  149. 149. Connection Circle
  150. 150. Connection Circle
  151. 151. Causal Loop
  152. 152. Connection Circle
  153. 153. Causal Loop
  154. 154. Connection Circle
  155. 155. Causal Loop
  156. 156. Systems Thinking Stocks Flows Causal Loops Flow Maps Connection Circles Simulations
  157. 157. Strategic Thinking
  158. 158. Thinking as a leader, manager and entrepreneur
  159. 159. Entrepreneurial Thinking
  160. 160. Pitching business plans
  161. 161. Applying for business loans and managing project budgets
  162. 162. Planning and running events
  163. 163. Marketing their solutions
  164. 164. Determine if their solutions are profitable and sustainable
  165. 165. Enthusing their teams
  166. 166. Managing differences and conflicts
  167. 167. Understanding the benefits of diverse viewpoints
  168. 168. Opportunities to bring in outside help and outsource
  169. 169. Creativity
  170. 170. Project Planning
  171. 171. Teamwork
  172. 172. Budgeting
  173. 173. Griffith University Dr Jason Zagami www.zagami.info

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