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Finding big trends

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Big Trends - How to Find Them, Ride Them and Get Off

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Finding big trends

  1. 1. Big Trends – How to Find Them, Ride Them and Get OffHoward Lindzon Ivaylo IvanhoffFounder and CEO of StockTwits @ivanhoff@howardlindzonhoward@lindzon.com 1
  2. 2. Finding Big Market Winners 2
  3. 3. The Harsh Reality1 in 3 Stocks Eventually Decline 75% from Their IPO Price; Only1 in 4 Stocks Outperform the S&P 500 during their lifetime 3
  4. 4. Stock Picking Matters 4
  5. 5. Where to Find the Winners? 5
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  15. 15. What Do big Winners Have inCommon? Many of them have explosive earnings and sales growth; Many had new product/service that was loved by their customers; Many looked expensive on the way up (and paradoxically – cheap on the way down) But… 15
  16. 16. All Big Stock Market Winners Spend the Majority of Their Time on the 52-week high list (and better yet, the all-time highlist) Substantially Outperform market benchmarksin good and bad times 16
  17. 17. Price Is the Most Important Part ofCatching a Trend It doesn’t matter how smart you are; how ingenious your investing idea is; Until the market agrees with you, you won’t make a cent. Market agrees with you, when you see your stocks on the 52-week high, better yet the all-time high list; The 52-week high list is a raw data point, which could be enormously useful if you know how to read it properly. The 52-week high list is basically a short-cut into the minds of people, who can create and sustain trends. 17
  18. 18. U.S. Housing Recovery Is the MarketStory of the Year and It was Told by the52-week High List Long Before Itbecame front-page news 18
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  26. 26. The Magic Of RelativeStrength 26
  27. 27. Relative Strength How A Stock Performs Against the Market; StocksThat Are Holding Near 52-week highs and Even Better, Break Out to New Highs While the General Market Is In Correction Mode, Are Likely To Become the Leaders of the Next Rally 27
  28. 28. Trades Near 10-year High whileMarket Is In a Free Fall 28
  29. 29. Makes New All-Time High whileMarket is in Correction Mode 29
  30. 30. New All-Time Highs While Market isMaking New 3-month Lows 30
  31. 31. In Good Markets, There Will Be Hundreds ofStocks Hitting the 52-week High List Daily. YouCan’t Own Them All. How to Choose from suchBig Pool of Stocks? 31
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  33. 33. The St50 List The purpose is to Improve the Odds of Finding the Next Bigwinners. It Saves Research Time By Ranking All Liquid Stocks by theCriteria that Matters:-Distance from 52-week high;-Relative Strength;-Earnings and Sales Growth; Acceleration in growth;-Earnings Surprises;-And Most Importantly – Setup score (based on Moving averagesratios), which keeps us away from extended stocks. 33
  34. 34. But There Is More to the St50 List –Social Data You Could See Which of the StrongMomentum Stocks Are: Least followed = no one pays attention tothem; there is no hype; Least mentioned = undiscovered gems with alot more potential to appreciate; Gaining social momentum. 34
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  36. 36. Momentum In All Markets IsInterconnected 36
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  38. 38. A Glass HalfFullNo matter what isgoing on in the world,there will always becompanies that willmanage to monetizeon an undergoingsocial or businesstrend. If you followthe 52-week high list,and better yet theStockTwits 50 list,you will know theones that are trulyripe to be owned 38
  39. 39. Ride Them Long Enough To Make aDifference 39
  40. 40. Holding Is An Important Part 40
  41. 41. Starbucks Might Be the NextStarbucks 41
  42. 42. Trend Following Is Not for the Faintof Heart and Get Rich QuickDreamersAnybody Can Buy A Stock, but You AlsoHave to Hold It While It Rises In Order to MakeMoney Don’t Sell Until A Stock Gives You A Reason And Yet, Conviction Without Discipline Is aRecipe for Disaster…You Have To Stick ToYour Sell Rules, No Matter How Much YouBelieve in the product/service 42
  43. 43. Pruning Is Important. You Will HaveLosers. Get Rid Off Them 43
  44. 44. How To Get Off 44
  45. 45. Have An Exit Strategy Some Trends Last Longer Than Others, ButSooner or Later They all Come To An End Everything Is For Sale At the Right Price No Gain Is Really A Gain Until It is Booked 45
  46. 46. 80/50 Rule 80% of All Big Stock Market WinnersLose 50% of Their Move 50% of All Big Stock Market WinnersLove 80% of Their Move 46
  47. 47. “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, butnot the madness of people.” 47
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  52. 52. Why Trends End No company can sustain high growth forever; No company can sustain high expectations forever. Anything priced for perfection eventually disappoints Valuation Matters When Market’s Mood Shifts from Complacency and Euphoria to Doom and Gloom Wall Street is a tireless printing press; sophisticated distribution and marketing machine. It is in the business of printing stocks that are under demand by the market 52
  53. 53. Partial Profit Taking Too Extended from Its Rising 200dma (40%+) Reacts Poorly to “Good” News Look for Sudden Increase in Short-Term Volatility. It is often a sign of ownership transfer – from strong to weak hands 53
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