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IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 7 – Item 2 D_Lumbroso

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IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 7.2 Darren Lumbroso

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IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 7 – Item 2 D_Lumbroso

  1. 1. November 2016 An overview of the effectiveness of early warning systems and risk assessments for weather-related hazards in South Asia Darren Lumbroso
  2. 2. © HR Wallingford 2016 Bangladesh November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 2  80% of land is floodplain  160 million people  57,000 square miles  Per capita GDP US$1,170  144th poorest country in the world  Dominated by the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta
  3. 3. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 Page 3 Bangladesh – The human cost of cyclones and coastal floods Numberoffatalities Population(millions) India UK Water Centre
  4. 4. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 Page 4 Numberoffatalities Population(millions) Bangladesh – The human cost of cyclones and coastal floods
  5. 5. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 Page 5 Numberoffatalities Population(millions) Bangladesh – The human cost of cyclones and coastal floods
  6. 6. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 Page 6 Numberoffatalities Population(millions) 0 Bangladesh – The human cost of cyclones and coastal floods
  7. 7. © HR Wallingford 2016 1980 1990 2015 Multipurpose Cyclone Shelters Programme commissioned in 1991. Almost 2,000 cyclone shelters constructed. One hundred cyclone shelters built, early 1960s Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) of Bangladesh Red Crescent Society set up, 1972 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies request the setting up of a warning system for coastal communities, 1965 National Forecast Centre of the Institute of Meteorology adopted a user oriented philosophy, 1980 1.5 million people take refuge in cyclone shelters during Cyclone Sidr, 2007 Standing Orders for Cyclone (SOC) proclaimed by the Government of Bangladesh, 1985 Agreement on constructing cyclone shelters reached. World Bank funds construction of some 200 shelters,1970 Under Second Primary Education Programme 924 new cyclone shelters planned, 2009 Comprehensive Community-Based Disaster Preparedness programme, 1997 Two S band radars implemented on the coast for cyclone forecasting installed, 1988 Upgrading of coastal radar 19701960 2000 Number of CPP volunteers reaches 32,000, 2000 2010 Number of CPP volunteers reaches 50,000, 2012 November 2016 India UK Water Centre 7
  8. 8. © HR Wallingford 2016 Bangladesh - Portfolio of measures November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 8
  9. 9. © HR Wallingford 2016 Hyogo Framework for Action core indicators 2.1 and 2.2  Core indicator 2.1: “National and local risk assessments based on hazard data and vulnerability information are available and include risk assessments for key sectors”  Core indicator 2.3: “Early warning systems are in place for all major hazards, with outreach to communities” November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 9 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) level Achievements Level 1 Minor progress with few signs of forward action in plans or policy Level 2 Some progress, but without systematic policy and/or institutional commitment Level 3 Institutional commitment attained, but achievements are neither comprehensive nor substantial Level 4 Substantial achievement attained but with recognized limitations in key aspects, such as financial resources and/or operational capacities Level 5 Comprehensive achievement with sustained commitment and capacities at all levels
  10. 10. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 10 Hyogo Framework for Action - Core indicator 2.1: National and local risk assessments for South Asia HFA level No reporting 1 2 3 4 5
  11. 11. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 11 Hyogo Framework for Action - Core indicator 2.3: Early warning systems for South Asia HFA level No reporting 1 2 3 4 5
  12. 12. © HR Wallingford 2016 How to assess the “effectiveness” of risk assessments and early warning systems for weather-related hazards? November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 12 Aspect Factors evaluated Robustness Are data availability/quality a constraint in providing information? Reliability Is there evidence that people are using the information and if so what are they using it for? Access Is the information clearly communicated? How is it communicated? Aspect Factors evaluated Robustness Can sufficiently accurate and timely warnings be generated? Is data availability/sharing a constraint in providing information? Are data quality a constraint in providing information? Reliability Are the warnings dependent on the forecasts of Meteorological Services from outside the country in question? Are there enough adequately trained staff/volunteers? Access Are a variety of warning methods used? Can all stakeholder groups access the information? Response Are there associated training programmes or mock drills in place? Is the institutional framework in place to respond to system information? Risk assessments Early Warning Systems
  13. 13. © HR Wallingford 2016 How to assess the “effectiveness” of risk assessments and early warning systems for weather-related hazards? November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 13 Score Factors evaluated 1 An early warning systems or risk assessments exists but it is not particularly effective 2 An early warning systems or risk assessments exists and is deemed to be “moderately effective” in reducing humanitarian impacts 3 The early warning systems or risk assessments that are in place are “effective” in that they lead to the desired response that results in a reduction in the impacts of the weather-related hazards No information There was insufficient evidence available to judge the effectiveness of the early warning system or risk assessment  Stakeholders engaged with via a range of routes including internet-based surveys and semi-structured interviews
  14. 14. © HR Wallingford 2016 Effectiveness of early warning systems for cyclones November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 14
  15. 15. © HR Wallingford 2016 Effectiveness of early warning systems for droughts November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 15
  16. 16. © HR Wallingford 2016 Risk assessments for cyclones November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 16
  17. 17. © HR Wallingford 2016 Barriers to effectiveness of risk assessments November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 17
  18. 18. © HR Wallingford 2016 Barriers to effectiveness of early warning systems November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 18
  19. 19. © HR Wallingford 2016 Conclusions  Main barriers to the effectiveness of risk mapping for weather-related hazards:  Availability of information on factors affecting people’s vulnerability  Lack of accessibility of risk maps to relevant stakeholders  Main barriers to the effectiveness of early warning systems:  Lack of technological capacity to generate forecasts  Lack of high quality data November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 19
  20. 20. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 20 Further reading www.evidenceondemand. info/final-report-science- for-humanitarian- emergencies-and- resilience-scoping-study
  21. 21. November 2016 Questions? Darren Lumbroso

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