Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 3 – Item 2 C_Prudhomme

30 views

Published on

IUKWC Workshop November 2016: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security
Session 3.2 Christel Prudhomme

Published in: Environment
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 3 – Item 2 C_Prudhomme

  1. 1. Need for a set of consistent hydrological projections for water-related climate change assessment in GB Climate services for the water sector: EDgE a prototype for Europe Christel Prudhomme
  2. 2. Problem statement: what is out there? • Uncertainty in climate change modelling • Large volume of data • Choice of model (CMIP5 ~ 20 Global Climate Models) • Complex climate information • Water-related projections (drought; flood; water availability indices) absent ... HadRM3-PPE 25-km grid future climate forcing 10,000 monthly change factors (P, T, ..) 25-km grid; 3 ES; 9 TH 5km reference historic climate Daily 1961-2014; monthly from 1910
  3. 3. UK experiment: Future Flows products • Ensemble of nationally consistent hydrological & groundwater level daily projections (1951-2099) • Regulators and policy • EA: ‘Case for change’ evidence to Government • Defra: White water paper • Water companies: must use Future Flows for Water Resource Planning • Research and development • Water abstraction licensing reform (Risk solution) • Water Framework Directive River status assessment (SEPA) • Noro virus through shellfish (CEFAS) • Electrical earthing installations and heat pump potential (BGS) • Aquatic bird population (U B’ham) • Soil saturation and runoff processes (Cranfield U)
  4. 4. EDgE End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe Christel PRUDHOMME Copernicus Climate Change Service Programme Prototype Climate Service Information System for the water sector
  5. 5. pace On behalf of for the European Commission EDgE vision Hydrological Modelling For Climate Impact Indicators Stakeholder View Web Delivery System Define Case Studies Design Implement An hydro-climate service co-designed with stakeholders to break down barriers for users of different backgrounds to access and understand state-of-the art hydrological predictions
  6. 6. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Stakeholder view: Focus groups Norway UK Spain What information do you use now? What would you prefer to have?
  7. 7. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Common needs High resolution information about future climate drought indices Norway SpainUK Metrics Skilful seasonal hydrological forecasts Hydrological indices Potential evapotranspiration Water temperature Norway SpainUK Interface Simplicity No post-processing Interactive maps Maps and graphs for download Maps of thresholds or triggers Choice of scenario Different spatial resolutions EDgE results in wider context Skill & uncertainty information Norwegian Spanish
  8. 8. pace On behalf of for the European Commission State-of-the-art modelling framework CMIP5 (ISI-MIP): 5-GCMs ensemble GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M Seasonal Forecast: 4-NWP ensemble NMME: CanCM4, GFDL(FLOR) (12 real.); ECMWF: ECMF, LFPW (15 real.) Hydrology: 3/4-model ensemble Noah-MP, mHM, PRC-Glob, VIC routed by mRM High Resolution Products at 5km resolution/ spatial areas Time series: P, T, PET, Q, SWE (daily CP; monthly SF) Up to 33 indicators of river flow, GWR, SWE, SM and climate
  9. 9. pace On behalf of for the European Commission SF SCIIs: Drought Event Aug. 2003 ecmf_sm_quantile_dist_08_2003_lead_from_1month_1quantile % e.g. Soil Moisture Drought Likelihood for SM to be in lowest quintile Uncertainty representation? Skill representation? Access to data for low skill predictions?
  10. 10. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Data store and web interface The EDgE demonstrator is a web-based application to: • Deliver information on climate services • Allow different types of users to interact with the data • Help users to make basic decisions • Allow users to download information
  11. 11. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Co-generation: e.g. uncertainty representation Indicators Interface Case Studies Capturing the Stakeholder View Evidence Gathering & testingFocus Groups Live demo and Exercises Display examples Voting sheets for preferred options
  12. 12. pace On behalf of for the European Commission The EDgE demonstrator Live demo On chrome http://edge.climate.copernicus.eu/Apps/#map http://edge.climate.copernicus.eu/Apps/#climate-change
  13. 13. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Next steps Hydrological Modelling For Climate Impact Indicators Stakeholder View Web Delivery System Define Case Studies Design Implement Case studies: assessment of value/utility Low skill vs access to data Operationalisation roadmap Feedback on interface Lessons learnt from other services http://edge.climate.copernicus.eu/ edge@ceh.ac.uk chrp@ceh.ac.uk
  14. 14. Thank you chrp@ceh.ac.uk
  15. 15. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Metrics  Changes in soil moisture  Changes in groundwater recharge  Changes in potential and actual evapotranspiration  Changes in precipitation  Changes in snow water equivalent  Changes in appropriate drought indicators, including drought duration  Area under drought  Changes annual high flow (e.g. Q10 – the flow exceeded 10% of the time on average)  Changes in annual maximum flood  Changes in annual low flow (Q90 or Q95)  Changes in seasonal flow  Changes in mean annual flow  Probability distributions of future flows, for both seasonal forecasts and for climate change

×