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From weather to big data by Stefan Bornemann

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In this presentation Dr. Stefan Bornemann is talking how weather effects business and customers and how wetter.com is analyzing this weather impact.

Topic was presented at Women in Big Data Munich event at Usercentrics:
https://www.womeninbigdata.org/

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You can watch the recording of the presentation in our YouTube channel:
https://youtu.be/u-gZoj326ec

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From weather to big data by Stefan Bornemann

  1. 1. FROM WEATHER TO BIG DATA wetter.com breaks new ground Munich, 28. November 2019 Dr. Stefan Bornemann, wetter.com GmbH wetter.com
  2. 2. advertising solutions weather content productions weather & geo data products Berlin Constance Munich 3 wetter.com Desktop, iOS, Android snowthority.com Desktop, iOS, Android Unique users per month
  3. 3. THREE PILLAR STRATEGY – FROM PUBLISHING TO DATA COMPANY CONSUMER DATA Data OptimizationAnalytics wetter.com 5 MEDIA
  4. 4. WEATHER MATTERS
  5. 5. WEATHER IS A RELEVANT BUSINESS FACTOR WITH PRECIOUS INSIGHTS
  6. 6. wetter.com 8 WEATHER EFFECTS FROM CUSTOMER`S PERSPECTIVE WEATHER AWARENESS ACTIONINTEREST DESIRE MOOD DESIRE IMPACT OF ADVERTISING CHOICE OF PRODUCT & BRAND SHOPPING BASKET CHECK-OUT
  7. 7. wetter.com 9 WEATHER EFFECTS FROM ENTREPRENEUR´S PERSPECTIVE August 2018 warmer than 2017 2017 2018 „Ungewöhnlich heißes Wetter“ Ungewöhnliche Gewinnwarnung aus Düsseldorf: Der Metro- Ableger Ceconomy leidet mit seinen Elektronikmärkten Media Markt und Saturn unter den Folgen der sommerlichen Hitze. „Hornbach hat auch Wetter“ In den prominenten Kreis der Händler, die sich aufgrund der extremen Temperaturen von ihrem Umsatzprognosen verabschieden müssen, gesellt sich jetzt auch Hornbach hinzu. „Das liebe Wetter“ Gewinnwarnung und Kurssturz an der Börse: Auch der Mode- Onlinekonzern Zalando bemüht das Wetterargument für die rückläufige Nachfrage. „Außergewöhnlich warmes Wetter im zweiten Quartal“ Außergewöhnlich warmes Wetter im zweiten Quartal 2018 hat Nachfrage im Markt für große Möbel spürbar zurückgehen lassen.
  8. 8. wetter.com 10 WEATHER IS A KEY FEATURE AT ANY STAGE OF THE VALUE CHAIN Planning Marketing CRMOperationsSourcing BaseliningWetter-ContentForecasting Produkt-Faktor Prognose-Korrektur Wetter- Targeting Sales-Steuerung Transaction / POS Sales Performance €
  9. 9. wetter.com DATA BUSINESS MODELS Weather Location Audiences Meta vacation, holidays, POIs, events, socio Client e.g. clicks, orders, visits, bookings, … Media Optimizer Geo InsightsBaselining Forecast Optimizer Application & Optimization Automated prediction & standardized targeting products “Weather-based Advertising” “Specify weather business impact“ “Analyze geo audiences” “Plan business using weather” 11 Data Enrichment, Big Data Analytics Predictive Modelling
  10. 10. Forecast Optimizer
  11. 11. Customer: Bakery chain Problem: High out-of-stock and overstocking ratio Idea: Optimization of existing autoregressive forecasts by weather data Goal: Automatic integration of weather data via machine learning SETTING wetter.com 13
  12. 12. wetter.com 14 LESS APPLE CAKE ON RAINY DAYS 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 salesperday rainfall (mm)
  13. 13. 15 WEATHER OPTIMIZED SALES FORECAST WITHIN THE SUPPLY CHAIN Sales data Sales planning Order ERP-System Forecast-Software Order proposal Production Weather optimized forecast Algorithm Model-Training wetter.com
  14. 14. 16 RESULTS: 12 % FORECAST IMPROVEMENT wetter.com Mon WedTue Thur Fri SunSat error overestimation underestimation -12% -8% -20% with weather without weather Sales numbers Forecast with weather Forecast without weather
  15. 15. Media Optimizer
  16. 16. Customer: beverage company Problem: o highly weather dependent products o advertising spendings with tremendous waste coverage Idea: Targeting segments based on product and weather Goal: Standardized weather targeting for programmatic advertsing + dynamic messaging + budget optimizing SETTING wetter.com 18
  17. 17. BOTTLED WATER SALES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR 19wetter.com Weekly GfK Panel sales water segment (LEH, indexed) 1. HY 2018 1. HY 2019 -4% 99103
  18. 18. Data OptimizationAnalytics REGIONAL WEATHER INDEX BASED ON GFK CONSUMER PANEL Absatz Temperatur DMP|DSP|CDP wetter.com Raw data Mapping Model Index AdTech AdCampaign 20wetter.com
  19. 19. TARGETING ON PRODUCT AND DAILY BASIS FOR EVERY LOCATION wetter.com 2019-06-10 2019-06-11 2019-06-12 2019-06-13 2019-06-14 2019-06-15 2019-06-16 temperature in °C water index sports drinks index
  20. 20. SUCCESS STORY: 26% CTR UPLIFT WITH WATER INDEX 22wetter.com Click CTRImpressions without targeting with targeting index – very high WATER BRAND 2.5% 3.1% +26%
  21. 21. WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT?
  22. 22. WEATHER / METEOROLOGY DATA SCIENCE help to avoid risks analyses & forecasts weather is a big business factor data evaluation weather is not just weather help to make the right decisions ask the right questions weather is not a force majeure weather is the missing key to understand the business 24
  23. 23. OUR GOALS  cross the bridge from publisher to data company  we want to be data driven in all aspects  we want to grow and enter new markets  we want to extend our culture of responsibility 25
  24. 24. Thank you! stefan.bornemann@wetter.com +49 89 412 007 272

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