Youth and islamic awakening1


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Youth and islamic awakening1

  2. 2. Scientific chart of the International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakening: Secretary General of the Conference: Dr. Ali Akbar Velayati Scientific secretary of the Conference: Dr. Abdullah Mobini Members of the Scientific Committee: Dr. Ibrahim Motaqi/ Dr. Manouchehr Mohammadi/ Dr. Seyyed Mohammad Raees-Zadeh/ Mohammad Ruivaran/ Ali Mohammad Fouladi/ Dr. Hamid Reza Akhavan-Fard/ Dr. Asghar Qaedan/ Dr. Mustafa Malakootian/ Dr. Hossein Sharifi Taraz-Karami/ Dr. Saeed Tavakoli/ Dr. Abdulhamid Sahrayi/ Ali Sabet/ Dr. Nabiollahi Rouhi/ Seyyed Mehdi Hosseini/ Dr. Niazi/ Dr. Reza Kalhor/ Dr. Hojjatollah Izadi/ Dr. Mostafa Izadi
  3. 3. Papers of the International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakening Compiled by the scientific committee of conference Editors: Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, Tahereh Zare, SeyedKamaloddin Rafiee, Seyyed Hossein Hosseini, Maryam Golbaz Layout: Rouholamini Institute Cover design: Abna’ Institute Translators: Abna’ Institute Publisher: Abna’ Institute First published in January 2012 (Bahman 1390) Circulation: 2000
  4. 4. CONTACT 09. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on United States’ security and interests in the Middle East and Northern Africa 57. Analytical glance to Supreme Leader’s attitude about aerial changes at Middle East & North of Africa 86. Clarifying Role of Islamic Revolution in Development of Islamic Awakening 109. Expansion of Islamic Awakening in the Middle East 130. Honor›s Significance from Viewpoint of Leader In Light of its Key Role In Islamic Awakening 144. Ideological transformations and Islamic movements in the Middle East and North Africa 159. Imam Musa al-Sadr›s role in encouraging the youth in the Islamic
  5. 5. awakening wave Awakening187. Establishinginternational Islamic unity 251. Role of Social networksbased on religion, wisdom, in Egyptian revolutionmorality and science 267. PEERS &203. Islamic awakening and STUDENT ACTIVISMYoung Generation IN MALAYSIA: FROM CHE GUEVERA TO214. ISLAMIC IMAM KHOMEINI TOAWAKENING; FACEBOOKMUSLIM NATIONSBACKWARDNESS AND 295. The challenges facingTHE ROLES OF YOUTHS Islamic awakening and theIN RESTORING THE LOST youth›s role in confrontingGLORY. them228. THE ENLIGHTNED 305. The Role of IslamicYOUTH; Awakening in Repelling theAN ISLAMIC WORDVIEW World Zionism ConspiracyAND AGE CHALLENGE 326. The Third Wave of239. Plots, Threats and Islamic Awakening in theMethods of Arrogant Powers Middle East And the West›sand International Zionism Plot, Regional Tensions andfor Tackling the Islamic Radicalism
  6. 6. Introduction: The raise in the awareness of the Islamic Ummah over the past years has led to the Islamic Awakening which can mark the beginning of series of institutional changes in the history and civilization. Islamic Awakening is the culmination of knowledge and experience, and magnificent representation of the Islamic heritage, civilization, and great Muslim figures and leaders. The movement is the rise of intelligence, energy and the increased knowledge of the people who are regarded as the principal beneficiaries of the uprising. This, in fact, has realized the long-standing expectations of the Islamic Ummah in the Muslim countries that were mostly ruled by puppet rulers over the centuries. The First Conference on Islamic Awakening, held in Tehran on September 17-18, 2011, was attended by more than 700 scholars, resistance leaders, media personalities and political and cultural6 activists from various Islamic parties and organizations from around the world. The intellectual and historical background and latest developments, challenges and prospects of the movement were discussed and analyzed during the conference and the prominent observers and intellectuals exchanged their ideas on the issue. The opening ceremony included the illuminating remarks of Supreme Leader of Islamic Revolution, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei. The «World Assembly of Islamic Awakening» and its permanent secretariat were also established in Tehran in order to extend the scope of the connections between the intellectuals and to monitor the developments taking place at the hearts of the Islamic awakening movement. Besides pursuing the legislations of the first conference, the Secretariat is assigned with the responsibility to facilitate the organization and holding of the following meetings, including the International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakening. The general objectives of the conference are as following:
  7. 7. A - Regeneration and the implementation of the Islamic principles,values and goals based on the Islamic Sharia and the Holy Quran;B – Revving the Islamic and national dignity of the Muslim countries;C – Establishing the new international Islamic power and civilizationbased on religion, rationality and morality;D – Facilitating the interaction between currents, personalities andfigures and exchange of experience and ideas between the movements;E – Confronting the influence of the hegemonic powers on the newpolitical order;F – Devising the new model of Islamic democracy to replace thecurrent Western models;G – Strengthening the national spirit of self-esteem and confidence indealing with the invasion of the hegemonic powers;Accordingly, the intellectuals and scholars were called to send theirpapers and analysis on six core subjects of discussion which is asfollowing:1 - Theoretical, ideological, intellectual and institutional issues and thefundamental framework of the Islamic awakening and youth2 - The role of youth and factors leading to the Islamic Awakening 73 – Examining the weaknesses and threats faced by the process ofIslamic Awakening and youth4 - Perspectives and future prospects of Islamic Awakening and Youth5 - The Islamic Revolution, models, achievements, youth and the waveof Islamic awakeningOf more than 200 papers received in the secretariat, a final number of40 papers and more than 70 abstracts were selected by the scientificcommittee of the conference. Some other papers will be delivered inthe marginal meetings and workshops.The broad range of issues discussed in the papers submitted to theconference proves the sensibility and importance of the IslamicAwakening among scholars and scientific experts in the Muslimcountries.We appreciate all people who have contributed to the conference andhelped us with their thoughtful comments. We hope this would be thebeginning of new chapter in the glory of the Islamic Ummah, Inshallah.
  8. 8. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ...
  9. 9. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on United States’ security and interests in the Middle East and Northern Africa Fatemeh Morsali Introduction We would fully understand the Middle East’s status and its strategic importance when we refer to “Jurdis Fon Luhausen”, the Austrian retired military General who believed that the Middle East was the center of the old world, whose center held the Persian Gulf, known as the center’s center (heartland). The thing matters in this region, is not just the oil, but if we consider the world atlas, we see that the oceans have penetrated into Africa and Eurasia nowhere else as much as this region. The Indian Ocean has10 penetrated into the region through its two arms of the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, while the Atlantic has entered the region through the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. Between the two oceans which are the same distance from African and Asian coasts, lies the ancient land of Ur on the estuaries of the rivers Dedjlah and Forat. The region is the most strategic part throughout the old world. Any turmoil caused by external factors in the region will have consequences for both Europe and Africa continents, that is, the evolutions occurred in the region are likened to a stone thrown into a pond, whose ripples are visible through the whole pond. The Middle East owns specific characteristics such as embracing or proximity to land bridges, passages, straits like Sina, Caucasus, the Strait of Gibraltar, Dardanelle,
  10. 10. International Conference on Youth and Islamic AwakeningBab-el-Mandab, Hormuz Strait; and having seas such asMediterranean, Black, Caspian, and Red seas togetherwith the Persian Gulf. These characteristics have providedthe best connection paths between the end of vast Eurasiaand Africa continents. Moreover, the Middle East andnorthern Africa are strategic regions in the center of Islamiccivilization and culture. The region holding a population of700 million people, with 22 government-nations; is dividedto different cultural (linguistic and ethnic) zones: Indo-European Plateau zones (Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistanwith a total population of 275 million people), Anatolia(Turkey with a 71 million-population), Mesopotamia (Iraqwith a population of 25 million), Persian Gulf and ArabianPeninsula (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UnitedArab Emirates, and Yemen with a total population of 54million), Mediterranean region (Jordan, Lebanon, Syria,Palestine and Israel with 31 million people), North Africaand Berber (including Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, 11Tunisia having a population of 165 million). Islam (exceptthe Hebrew-Jewish region in the occupied lands) is asuitable common point of convergence throughout the wholeregion. The very same common point of convergence has agood potential for having challenges with globalization andthe cybernetic cultural imperialism (which is imperialismequipped with virtual space, satellite, and web-basedmedia). More clearly, it has caused a bilateral conflictbetween the West and the Middle East in western secular’smodernity context and the political Islam. The Persian Gulf with an area of 233,000 squarekilometers, not only providing more than 30 percent ofthe global oil production capacity, but hosting the most
  11. 11. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... important and the biggest exporters of oil in the world, i.e. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates. 16 percent of global oil imports are produced in this region, which supplies 13 percent of consumption in the US, 45 percent in Germany, and 75 percent in France and Japan. So the interruption would cause a great loss in the US and other countries’ economies. Because of the geo-economic and geo-strategic importance of the Persian Gulf region, Washington is seeking major substantial goals in the region, caused by the great interests hidden in the Persian Gulf. These interests are of crucial importance for the United States. Following the occurrence of popular uprisings and revolutions in the Middle East and northern Africa, based on anti-totalitarian and anti-imperialistic natures, construed as Islamic Awakening; ultra-regional powers especially the United States and its regional ally, Israel, have faced12 security threats in different aspects. This article aims at determining the aspects and measuring the effects of Islamic Awakening on the security and national interests of the United States of America throughout the Middle East and northern Africa. The independent variant in this study is the Islamic Awakening, and the dependent variant is the US security, while the limiting factor has been considered as the Middle East and northern Africa. The article also tries to answer the basic question as “What security effects has Islamic Awakening had in the strategic Middle East and Africa for the US?” In order to answer this question, the article assumes that the popular uprisings among the Islamic nations have started to threaten the US security and crucial interests due to their anti-totalitarian
  12. 12. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningand anti-imperialistic natures. The article can be divided to three major sections, thefirst of which deals with US security and interests in theMiddle East and northern Africa; the second of whichstudies demarcating the popular uprisings; and the lastpart of which describes the effects of Islamic Awakening.In order to measure the effects of Islamic Awakening ondifferent elements of the US security in the Middle Eastand Northern Africa, the article tries to simultaneouslyemploy two methods for gathering necessary data, sothat the dimensions and aspects are clearly illuminated.The above-mentioned methods include documentation(library) and inductive (direct observation). Moreover,the research method is either descriptive (integrative) orexploratory, while the data analysis method is hermeneuticand descriptive. Theoretic issues 13 Islamic Awakening: A comprehensive phenomenonignited by the Muslim elites concurrent with the West’scolonial intentions together with the scientifically-underdeveloped Muslim world, which gradually spread tothe people. The Islamic Awakening emanates both fromintrinsic (colonialism) and extraneous (degeneration)factors. Since started by Sayed Jamaleddin Asadabadi, themovement has experienced four evolutionary waves: A-1) First wave of Islamic Awakening: This waveof Islamic Awakening which started since the ancientcolonialism in the Muslim world; has had characteristicssuch as being corrective and dialogue-centered,individualism, obscurity of the political system sought by
  13. 13. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... the reformists, and the lack of system. In the other words, no major revolutionary moves are seen in this stage, hence it was mostly carried out individually by the Muslim scholars or through trips or creating journals or books. During this period, the elites often prescribed no alternatives for the ruling governances, and usually expected the rulers to change their attitudes, rather than to change the systems. During the first wave, the reformists and activists enjoyed no major group, organization, nor political party. They merely managed to create an organization consisting of influential rulers or scholars and never tried to organize the people. The only exception in this category can be Hassan al-Banna who created Muslim Brotherhood organization in Egypt. Among the intellectual leaders of the first wave are Jamaleddin Asadabadi, Iqbal Lahuri, Sheikh Muhammad Abduh, Abdol-Rahman Kawakibi, Abul-Ali Maududi, and Hassan al-Banna.14 A-2) Second wave of Islamic Awakening: The second wave is different from its previous stage, as during this stage, reformism and individual moves almost disappeared, and more effective moves against the West’s multilateral pressure were proven to be necessary. During this stage, from 1948 to 1990, Islam gets more ideological, and Islamic political attitude moves towards armed conflict due to the specific evolutions in the Islamic world, and replaces the individual and passive Islam. Among numerous social, political, and cultural grounds of the second wave, one can mention the creation of Israeli Zionist regime recognized by the United Nations, Declination of Arab nationalism in fighting the occupiers of al-Quds, the necessity of alternative ideology, Colonists’ shift from traditional colonialism to
  14. 14. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningmodern colonialism, the distinction of aspects of westernculture in the Islamic world, West’s efforts to empowerseculars throughout the Islamic world and make themdepend on western powers, and finally the coherence andunity of the clerics after the unsuccessful experience ofthe Constitutional Revolution. During the time, Darul-Islam vs. Darul-Harb concepts (Muslim States versus Non-Muslim States) are bulked out among Muslims, agitatingIslamists to fight the West or unpopular West-backedregimes. The occurrence of the Islamic Revolution in Iranin 1979 is among the most important factors of the IslamicAwakening. The establishment of Islamic groups such asPalestinian Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas, IslamicJihad Movement, Lebanon Hezbollah, the Supreme Councilfor the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Islamic UnityParty of Afghanistan, Islamic Movement of Afghanistan,Tunisia al-Nahda, Algeria Islamic Najjah Front, is amongthe major results of the Islamic Awakening (table number 151). The substantial strategies innovated by the IslamicRevolution of Iran regarding the Islamic Awakeninginclude the innovation of Quds Day, the Rally to exoneratefrom the pagans during the Hajj ceremony, opposition tothe peace process in the Middle East and supporting theIntifada, media support for Islamists’ campaigns around theIslamic world, refraining from recognizing Israel, and theannual holding of International Conference to support thePalestinian Intifada. Among the common characteristics ofthe Islamic movements of the second wave are as follows:Reiterating Islam, handling the systems; intellectual,geographical, and social comprehensiveness; being multi-centered, and constancy and persistence. Imam Khomeini
  15. 15. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... (PBUH), Sayed Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, and Sayed Qutb are known as the intellectual leaders of the second wave of the Islamic Awakening. A-3) Third wave of Islamic Awakening: Islamic Awakening flourished following the restless period of the revolution and the subsequent defense in war. Iran’s religious democracy on one hand, and the experience of war and defense on the other hand made the Islamists in other countries with a good social status, to start forming a political system; a move which faced crack down. Other grounds and temporal conditions of the third wave, causing another aspect of Islamic Awakening are as follows: the end of the cold war and the collapse of the Soviet Union, globalization, normalization of fighting terrorism by the West, development of international media through Islamic world such as al-Alam, al-Kowsar, Aljazeera, al-Minar networks, increased military presence of the West in Islamic16 countries, starting the peace process in the Middle East, and Lebanon Hezbollah’s great victories in 2001 and 2006. A-4) Fourth wave of Islamic Awakening: The fourth wave was started in recent months in northern Africa and the Middle East after the 26-year-old Tunisian man Muhammed Bu Azizi committed suicide on December 17, 2010 in the city of Sidi Bouzid. The wave fast spread to Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and Algeria. The recent uprisings had some roots in common such as humiliation, internal totalitarianism, dependence on West, corruption of the ruling system, unemployment and vast poverty; and some properties such as being Islamic, being popular, opposition with the US, opposition with Zionism, and being affected by the Iranian
  16. 16. International Conference on Youth and Islamic AwakeningIslamic Revolution. Among the intellectual leaders of thetwo recent Islamic Awakenings are Ayatollah Khameneiand Sayed Hassan Nasrallah. National Interests: It is defined as the most importantmotives and values, the most supreme goals and the mostvital needs of a sovereign government-nation which formsand guides the international actions and behaviors. Priorityand the superiority of a national interest is also a dependentof its vitality and necessity. According to a report by theUS commission for the national interests, the US pyramidfor the national interests include: crucial interests, extra-important interests, important interests, minor or lessimportant interests. The crucial US national interests arethose interests that are crucial for protecting and insuringthe existence and the welfare of the American nation.These interests in the Middle East necessitate that Israel isrecognized as an independent nation, no general disruptionor permanent limitation is caused in supplying energy to 17the world; and none of the regional enemies of the US gainnuclear energy. The US extra-important interests are thosethat if breached, the US will suffer a great loss but it willstill be able to protect its nation. Based on these interests,the Persian Gulf must be free of any anti-US regionalpower; peace process in the Middle East progresses towardssuccess; Washington maintains a good relationship withpro-West Arab nations in the region and these countries areactively present in the region, and the terrorism is undercontrol. The US important interests are the interests that ifneglected, there will be consequences for the White Housein providing welfare for the American nation. Accordingly,regional countries need to adopt a balanced political system
  17. 17. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... and respect the human rights. The Commission adds that minor national interests are not dispensable in fact, but these interests are of importance, though their direct effect on the US ability to keep the welfare for its people is not that crucial (figure 1). In a broader point of view, the US key interests until 2025 are as follows: • Existence of Israel and complementing peace process in the Middle East; Accessing oil Preventing the emergence of a regional authoritarian foe; Preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; Winning political and economical reforms, and consequently bolstering internal stability;And fighting terrorism. Security: In an objective context, security means the lack18 of threats against the gained values; and in a subjective definition, it can be defined as the lack of fear over one’s interests. Among the many characteristics of security, one can mention the relativism which is the evolution of the semantics and the instance of security for the players in different situations. Meanwhile, subjectivism means emotional predominance in objective aspects of security and eventually inexpressiveness means refraining from limiting it in a special zone or level. Security could be gained through individual, social, national, regional, international, and global levels; and in different instances of cultural, social, judicial, military, economic, environmental, and political aspects. C-1) National interest is composed of two elements which
  18. 18. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningare completely coherent: internal and foreign security. Theinternal dimension of security is defined as the nation’ssecurity against evident and hidden threats inside theborders. These threats can be political (such as uprisings,separatism, etc.), economic (economic disruptions andcrisis, etc.), military (coup d’état, and domestic war), andsocial (riots and social mutinies); every one of which willpressure the national government and threats its existence. The foreign aspect of national security, deals withinternational threats against a government that can bepolitical (isolation and enforcing economic pressures),military (attack or threats of invasion, the enemy’s efforts toboost military capacities), economic (economic sanctions),cultural, or social. In fact, different aspects of nationalsecurity are likened to different links of a chain. If any singlelink is endangered, it will have considerable consequenceson other links. C-2) Regional Security has been presented by Barry 19Bouzan and a group of Copenhagen School scholars in1998. Accordingly, the world is divided to numeroussecurity bunches and every bunch is studied accordingto its specific issues. Therefore, the world is divided tosix security zones including Asia, Middle East, Europe,Africa, North America, and South America. The criteria forregional security are discipline, governments and regionalnorms. On the other hand, war, competition, imbalance,and organized crimes are considered as threats to regionalsecurity. Harsh and semi-harsh methods are also applied asmeans to provide security for the region. Security Threats: Security threats are located on theborder between threat and risks. In this context, danger and
  19. 19. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... terms related to that all mean passing the threat threshold, and entering potential security threats zone. Meanwhile, through the zone prior to security threats, the risk is recognized and considered as a stage of potential threats. The spectrum for potential threats (possible dangers) can be defined in two different ways. The starting point at this spectrum is known as the discussion, and the finishing point is called the challenge. Danger-threats spectrum can also be divided into three modes of alarm, danger, and the crisis. Therefore, this spectrum includes alarm, danger, and critical conditions (figure 2). This spectrum shows that the threat itself has six main conditions and the security threats include the border between potential threats and actual threats. Security threat is a situation in which the threat’s agent and issue have targeted the goals of security reference and the critical assets of threat zone, but it is not yet categorized as dangerous threats.20 The criteria to recognize the threat zone status (country, system, and the player) against the threats consist of general criteria and specific criteria. Briefly saying, general criteria for a threat in order to be considered in the danger spectrum- actual threats are as follows: - The threat has targeted the security reference goals or the critical assets’ infrastructures; - The threat has been proven to be true, or it is likely to be proven true; - Existence of a percentage of vulnerability in threat zone against the issue and the agent of the threat; - Inefficiency of capabilities in threat zone in order to create an equilibrium regarding the threat, - Support provided by a vast group of decision-makers
  20. 20. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningand strategic policy-makers to securitize the threat; - Fighting the threat as the most urgent solution. In order to define the degree of dangerous threats,the exclusive criteria can be mainly categorized as:Vulnerability against the threat, and the consequences ofthe threat. Accordingly, three criteria could be implementedto determine the degree of vulnerability and its proportionwith the danger degree in actual threats spectrum, which areas follows: preventive power-weakness, protective power-weakness, and restorative power-weakness. Consequently,three degrees can be mapped for the three conditionsof dangerous threats: very high vulnerability (criticalcondition), high vulnerability (dangerous condition), andmedium vulnerability (alarm condition). The second criterion to define the degree of dangerousthreats was introduced as the consequences of thethreat. This criterion can also be measured through threecharacteristics such as threat severity, threat range, and the 21threat depth. Considering the characteristics, three degreesof consequences for the three degrees of dangerous threatsinclude: Destructive consequences (critical condition),Severe consequences (dangerous condition), andConsiderable consequences (alarm condition). In a general description of security threat, one can defineit as the threat against the security values. Security values orcritical values are in fact the focal point for the security inevery system and security level. Some define this center asthe security reference. Security reference is something, thesecurity of which must be provided. Therefore, threateningthat would be interpreted as a security threat. On the other hand, as mentioned in the explanations of
  21. 21. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... national security, security threats can also be divided into categories as political, economic, environmental, military, cultural, social, and technological. So these threats can be dealt with in two domestic and foreign levels. In order to fully recognize the aspects and security consequences of Islamic Awakening, we need to study the Middle East’s role in defense and national security strategies of the United States. Then we will deal with plans and strategies taken by the White House regarding the Middle East, and finally the uprisings will be separated and categorized. 1. Considering the US security geography to separate the popular uprisings in the region Security geography is an expression similar to political geography, but due to its variety and vastness, provides a wide perspective for the researchers. All the centers that threaten the political and social stability of the society are22 dealt with in the security geography zone, together with recognizing the logic governing each center. Regarding the method, it is descriptive, and nature-wise, it is considered as inter-disciplinary. Security geography owns its particular levels, aspects, and priorities. The threat-producing centers can be divided into three levels of national, regional, and global. The most important aspects are cultural, political, social, environmental, economic, military, technical, and scientific. Regarding the priority or severity, it is categorized as potential or actual, and also medium-term, short-term, and long-term. One of such strategic regions in the US security geography is the Middle East. Following the September 11 events, the Middle East has been considered as key strategic interest
  22. 22. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningin Washington›s defensive and security policies, and alsoregarded as the White House›s focal point in internationalpolitics. The US strategies and security policies in the MiddleEast and its crucial subsystem, the Persian Gulf, are basedon a number of major axes, the most important of which areas follows: - Easy and inexpensive access to the oil in the region, - Securing a comprehensive security for Israel andachieving results in the peace process between Arabs andIsrael, - Preventing the emergence of regional powers in theMiddle East and the Persian Gulf, - Fighting Islamism. According to the final report presented by theUS Commission on National Security/21st Century(USCNS/21), the greater Near East is a region in whichWashington has key allies. It is the only region in the world 23where the US military deployment has been constantlycontinuing after the cold war era. Therefore, through theWest›s point of view, the greater Near East is a region witha great amount of importance and of course with numerousproblems. This report says the fundamental structure ofthe US regional policies must be based on maintaining andempowering the US allies and friends. By developing therelations between the allies, Washington will widen thepeace and stability. We, therefore, can conclude that the Americans andspecially the neo-conservatives believe that in theinternational arena, the basic roots of threat against the USsecurity lies in the Middle East. And so unless Washington
  23. 23. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... cannot cause serious changes in the region, these threats will be there. One of the strategies of the White House is to keep its presence in the region, both virtually and physically. Accordingly, the preventive policy does not always work and the US must maintain its preparation for a military action together with other countries when such cases happen: when the US friends or allies are endangered; when the access to critical resources has been endangered for the international community; and when a regime has decided to seriously hurt the US interests. The report also adds that the US might not be able to prevent more serious threat, having to bolster its military presence in order to back Israel, prevent the emergence of a regional power, and to prevent certain countries to gain weapons of mass destruction. As General James Jones, the former NATO commander said regarding Islamic world and the modern military policies, the new axial strategy for NATO in the 21st century is to24 focus on the Middle East and northern Africa. Therefore, regarding military presence in the Middle East, the US has carried out numerous plans. What follows are just a portion of different plans US has had in order to be present, be influential, control the situation of the regional countries and direct interference in those countries internal issues: Establishing several military bases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain together with reinforcing the present bases in the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean, increasing forces and equipments in the region with a full support for the Zionist regime of Israel (figure 2), Creating and empowering Taliban in Afghanistan, forming a trilateral military alliance composed of US, Turkey, and Israel, selling weapons to Persian Gulf Arab rulers, and increasing
  24. 24. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningwar ships and creation of marine installations in the region. So the US military presence in the region is necessary forestablishing the American hegemony in the internationalarena. This situation could enable the US to benefit fromthe future developments in the region, and consequentlyto reinforce its international status. We see that the newdocument for the US national security and the US projectfor the 21st century also confirm the issue. But the last caseof US soft policies is the plan known as Greater MiddleEast. This plan was first presented by General ColinPowel, the then Secretary of States, during a speech inHeritage Foundation. «Middle East is a vast region, beingso important to the Americans. Millions of people worshipin the churches and the mosques in ME and many holysites have been located there. The US and its policies facenumerous challenges and threats, each of which affects ournational interests and the regional countries› interests. We,therefore, will fight against these challenges and threats, as 25we are determined and insistent in this regard.» said Powel. At the time, Powel declared the establishment of theEnterprise Foundation, and vowed that the US wouldsupport the regional plans to perform political and socialreforms, and also to improve educational systems. Healso pledged to support region›s citizens regarding theircampaigns in gaining political freedoms and establishingdemocracy. The Republican administration of Bush inNovember 2003 publicized the Greater Middle East plan,in which there are a number of visible and hidden goalsby the United States. The announced goals for such a planhave been developing western democracy and civil society,purposefully developing of knowledge and developing
  25. 25. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... economic opportunities. But the hidden goals of the Greater Middle East plan are as follows: Maintaining Israel’s security: Some believe that the most important reason for the US to present such a plan and the subsequent attack on Iraq, was due to the close ties between Washington and Tel Aviv. In this regard, Mark Weber, the American expert and the director of the Institute for Historical Review in California says: “Greater Middle East plan is a part of Bush administration adventurous efforts to increase the US and Israel’s benefits in the region.” Dominating oil markets and deposing OPEC: The Middle East embraces some 70 percent of the global oil reserves. To fully understand the importance of oil for the United States, we could refer to Eric Lauran. He says by taking the office by Bush in January 2001, it was not the terrorism that topped his agenda, but the energy. The reason is evident through Dick Cheney’s comments when he said:26 “The future world needs a 50-million barrel of extra oil per day, and we will find these extra barrels in the Middle East.” On the relationship between the Greater Middle East plan and controlling the oil reserves in the region; Noam Chomsky’s comments are self-explanatory: The Greater Middle East plan is nothing but rhetoric, as the US main goal is to control the Persian Gulf, because this region is an incredible strategic source of power and the biggest oil reserve, so every country who seeks the global dominance must dominate this region. Changing the geographical map of the Middle East: This goal can be clearly seen in the then Secretary of State’s comments, Condoleezza Rice. On July 24, 2006 she met the then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Ulmert, saying: “And
  26. 26. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningnow it’s the time to build a new Middle East, and that’snot important whether others like this new Middle East ornot.” This goal was evidently obvious in the 33-day warof Lebanon. As the Zionist regime of Israel planned thewar with direct cooperation with the US in order to disarmHezbollah, and then attack Syria which is an opponent tothe Greater Middle East plan, and then to attack Iran tocompletely dominate the region. In fact, Israel and the USwanted to anchor the resistance crescent including Iran,Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas movement which are allamong serious opponents of the Greater Middle East. Maintaining the US hegemony: Among other US goalsin the Greater Middle East plan is to culturally dominatethe region which is being performed through soft policies.Another important region is the Horn of Africa includingmost of the Eastern African countries and the Nile valley.Horn of Africa is a titled used for the whole horn of Africa,Sudan, and the countries east of the great lakes. This region 27is geo-politically ranged through the Red Sea and its politicalgeography complies that of the Middle East. In the Pentagondoctrine and before establishing the AFRICOM (Africanregion Command), operational management of the regioncomplied the central Middle East command, and the wholeAfrica was commanded under the European Commandof the US military. Ben Gurion, the Israeli prime minister(1948-1954) commented on the strategic importanceof the Red Sea: “The existence of Israel depends on thissea”. The traditional attention of the US to this region hassubstantially changed after the Cold War. The US motivesand causes to be attracted to this region can be summarizedin the following dimensions:
  27. 27. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... Trying to increase political-military dominance in the region and develop its global hegemony; The US is aware of geo-strategic importance of the region. Horn of Africa has strategic reserves such as oil, natural gas, Iron, bauxite, and copper; Changing the regional power balance and coincidence in security-political goals of global powers, as China and India’s efforts to be present in this region and their high investments to extract and explore oil have made the White House take political-security measures to prevent the interference of opponents; Increasing Islamist movements in the region is a serious threat for the US national security and interests. Therefore, Washington has formed security-military alliances with Christian countries in the region such as Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda in order to tackle any possible danger from Islamic Fundamentalists.28 These strategic regions have recently undergone changes due to popular uprisings, with the result that the US regional security has been threatened. For instance, Foreign Relations Council, having a considerable influence on power centers and ruling structures in the US, held a meeting on June 5, 2006 titled as “The Emerging Shia Crescent Symposium” chaired by Richard Haass. One of the conclusions was that Shia political geography in the Middle East has a high potential to form some democratic uprisings in medium- term, which can have conflicts with the US Middle East interests in some areas. In separating these uprisings, we have tried to implement the parameter of US security and national interests. These criteria include military, economic, and political. In the other words, similar to Nickson’s
  28. 28. International Conference on Youth and Islamic AwakeningDoctrine, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and theCold War and attempts to establish a mono-polar system,the US created a new set of regional security based on threepillars: military pillar, political pillar, and economic pillar.In implementing this policy, countries like Bahrain, Yemen,Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in the militarypillar; Egypt, Tunisia, and Jordan in the political pillar; andLibya together with Saudi Arabia in the economic pillar arethe major players. The first separation and classification of the popularuprisings in the region: Bahrain Bahrain is a Sheikdom, ruled unconditionally by “SheikhIsa bin Salman al-Khalifah” and in next generations the ruleis passed from father to son. Since Mars 6, 1999 the countryis ruled by “Sheikh Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifah”. The mostimportant active political group in Bahrain is “Islamic 29Front for Liberation of Bahrain” which acts clandestinely.This group is basically Shia and it is mostly composedof Shia and Sunni lower walks of life in Bahrain society.Their slogans are Islamic Revolution against Al-Khalifahregime, contradicting any dependence on East or West andbelieving in the slogan “No West, No East”, and they aim atpreparing the Bahraini people, inciting their revolutionaryspirits, making them familiar with the spirits and realities ofIslamic principles. As majority are Shia and minority Sunnis rule in Bahrain,the relation between people and the ruling regime hasalways been likened to fire under the ash, and the regimehas threatened and suppressed the Islamists during the past
  29. 29. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... 30 years. As Ayatollah Modarresi, the leader of Bahraini Shias, has often been jailed or exiled due to his supporting the Islamic Revolution. On the other hand, despite the very limited area, the country is now considered as the most important US military base in the Persian Gulf and the Iraq Mission is mainly supported from Bahrain. Currently, a number of American air force and navy personnel and also a group of British Royal Air Force are stationed in Bahrain to patrol the air space and control the security of Hormuz Strait. Bahrain’s maximum passiveness can be seen against Washington when it delegated a part of its soil to the Fifth Fleet of the United States Navy to be stationed in al-Fajeer military base in return for an annual aid of 6.7 million dollars. In strategic defense analysis, Washington has defined a long-term presence in this base. As in February 2008 a 60-year contract was signed between US and Bahrain30 for the Navy’s Fifth fleet to be stationed. Around 5,000 Marine Corps are in the base. This fleet is operating under the management of US Central Command (CENTCOM), commanded by General James Mattis. The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet is commanded by Admiral Marc Fox. He claims that his fleet is one of the levers of the US power to maintain energy security especially in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, thorough which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. According to a report by the US Congress Research Center published on July 7, 2011 titled “Bahrain: US Reform, Security, and Politics”, US military aid to Bahrain Kingdom has been 279.333 million dollars from 2003 to 2011. (Table 3)
  30. 30. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakening Yemen Yemen, together with Jordan and Morocco are consideredin the US plan for democratization in the heart of the NewMiddle East. This country is the poorest among the Arabnations, with an annual mean income of less than 1300dollars. Almost half of the population has a daily income ofnot more than 2 dollars. The weak oil-dependent economyfaces increasing population challenges, the most importantreason of which must be sought in the vast povertycontaining the country. Yemen is another stage for the US military presence. TheAmerican air force and navy bases in Eden Gulf and Bab-el-Mandab Gulf have increased the US military power inthe Red Sea. One of the Pentagon plans is to establish amilitary center in Sukutra Island, located 360 km southeastof Eden. But the popular protests have caused ambiguitiesin building the center. Naturally, any shifts in powerstructure and the victory of Islamists could endanger the 31presence of US military bases in Yemen. Yemen’s militarygeography importance for the US is so high that the USCongress approved an aid of 58.4 million dollars in 2010.The Congress also allotted a 150-million-dollar aid totraining, supplying equipments for Yemeni security forces.(Table 4) Yemen has been one of the most intense countries inthe Middle East. The country has been facing crisis since2004 after the sextet war broke out between the centralgovernment and the Zaidi Houthis in north. The sixthwar was turned into a regional war after the Saudi forcesintervened. The country’s political and social conditionalso deteriorated after the crisis flared due to the Harak
  31. 31. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... separatist move to dismember the south, followed by al- Qaida’s increasing activities. Due to the great influence of Shia Houthis northern Sa’da, during the past 30 years, Saudi Arabia has always tried to cut the connections between Shias in eastern Saudi Arabia and Houthis. Accordingly, since the fall of Mubarak on February 11, 2011, the Yemenis have been holding rallies and staging sit-ins in most of the cities across Yemen. The main square in each city has been named al-Tagh’eer (Change) square. People have been demanding the ouster of Saleh and the fall of the regime. As 40 percent of the global oil is exported through this region with the strategic Strait of Bab-el-Mandab; the West sensitively follow the country’s developments, and the US is more fearful about losing its interests. By prolonging the crisis and Saleh’s inability to handle the unrest, plus protesters and opposition’s insist on his ouster; Washington is trying to manage the crisis as much as possible and find32 an acceptable solution. The Persian Gulf Council’s initiative must be evaluated in this regard. Kuwait Kuwait is situated in the northwest of the Persian Gulf and the southeast of Iraq, sharing borders with Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The official religion is Islam (Sunni) and 20 percent of the population is Shia. The sparks of Islamism in Kuwait were stricken concurrent with the Islamic Revolution in Iran. In 1980, Western embassies especially the US embassy were threatened and attacked several times. Kuwait political system is emirate, and the rule is ancestral. Kuwaiti emir is chosen from al-Sabah clan, with the current emir Sheikh Jaber al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah ruling since
  32. 32. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakening1977. Political parties are officially banned in Kuwait, butunofficial political groups are openly or secretly active.Among the most important groups, there are two SunniIslamist groups named Islamic Sharia (Law) Movement, and an Islamic mass-based party; and also a Shia Islamist group called Islamiccoalition for the country. Another older Shia group is calledDar al-Tawhid, composed of scholars of Kuwait society,having links with Shia communities in Iran and Iraq. Of the 21 US military bases throughout 6 Arab countriesin Persian Gulf, 6 bases are stationed in Kuwait, which enjoyconsiderable facilities despite their limited space and area.Studying the situation of these bases, defense agreements,and the slope of arms sales to Kuwait by Washington;reveals that after most of the joint military operations UShas had in the Middle East, its military presence in Kuwaithas increased. The examples are Earnest Will Operation(1987-1988), Desert Fox Operation (December 16, 1998), 33Southern Watch Operation, Desert Storm Operation (DesertShield), Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan(October 7, 2001) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (March 23,2003). The most important US bases in Kuwait are as follows: - Camp Arifjan: The presence of big arsenals, have madethis base be one of the support staff centers of the USoperations in the Middle East. In this camp, there are unitsfrom the navy, air force, and the coast guards stationed. - Camp Udairi (Buhering): This camp was given to theUS military for the Iraq war since 2003. - Center for commanding regional operations: Pentagonis building a permanent center in Kuwait to manage the full
  33. 33. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... range of operations in 27 regional countries. - Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base: It was taken over by the US since 1996, having a suitable situation in the southwest of the Persian Gulf. - Camp Doha: The Camp Doha has the highest role in commanding the forces. - Ali al-Salem Air Base: One of the most important military bases in Kuwait in which a British squadron of Tornado fighter jets has been stationed together with the American forces. The first separation and classification of the popular uprisings in the region: Egypt Egypt is a country located in the horn of Africa, which is limited to the Mediterranean Sea northward, to the Red Sea eastward, to Libya westward, and to Sudan southward.34 Al-Azhar University is one of the most influential scientific and religious centers in Islamic world, with almost 1,000 years of scientific and religious background. Al- Azhar’s most important goal is to publish and implement Islam’s laws and regulations, to keep the religious heritage of Sunnis and to make connections between different faiths of Islam. Political Islamism was started when Jamaleddin Asadabadi arrived to Egypt, and it entered a new phase when the Muslim Brotherhood was formed in 1928. Opposition and mutual mistrust between the Islamists and the government was started since 1948 when a number of cabinet members were assassinated, and resulted in assassination of the Muslim Brotherhood leader, Hassan al-Banna, in 1949. Muslim
  34. 34. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningofficers’ plot to assassinate Naser in 1954 deteriorated themistrust and its climax was in 1981, when Sayed Qutb,and the leaders of Jihad Islami, Jama’at al-Moslemin, al-Tahrir Islami were executed, and on the other hand, AnwarSadat was assassinated by Islamists. Contrary to some othercountries, Islamism in Egypt has two aspects of intellectualand military. Accordingly the country is both the center ofproducing Islamic thoughts, and at the same time the centerof the most radical Islamic campaigns. Not in many otherIslamic countries, one can find so many Islamist leaderswho were executed or were jailed for long terms. There aremore than 40 Islamist groups in Egypt, many of which arebranches of the Muslim Brotherhood, that have disengagedin different eras due to Muslim Brotherhood’s moderation,and they started armed conflict after separation. Thereare important factors in developing modern Islamism inEgypt like the assassination of Hassan al-Banna, SayedQutb’s thoughts, and the Islamic Revolution of Iran. After 35the assassination of Sadat, wide arrests of Islamists, and arelative short recession in the military phase; the Islamistsmoved towards peaceful and civil campaign in order tomaintain their popular bases. Egypt is considered as the gate of the Arab world andthe US base for the Middle Eastern policies. The closenessof Egypt to oil producing regions in the Persian Gulf andits active role in peace process between Arabs and Israelhave created such a status for Egypt in US policies. The USsupplies Cairo with an annual economic and military aid ofmore than two billion dollars. Based on a report by the USResearch Center, Washington has totally given more than392118 million dollars to Egypt after the second World War
  35. 35. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... until 2011 (table 5). Since 1979, Cairo has been Washington’s close ally in starting the peace process, facilitating the negotiations between Arabs and Israel, and legitimizing the US-led coalition against Iraq. Therefore, distinguished American experts like Paul Wolfowitz, recommended the US to support Egypt in fighting against terrorism. That’s why American authorities seek stability in Egypt, a country regionally situated in a dangerous zone. After Camp David Treaty was signed by Anwar Sadat, the dependence of Egypt to Israel and the US was visualized in the 22-day war against Gaza, when Egypt started killing Palestinian fighters. During the time, Egypt fully besieged Gaza strip, not allowing even the food, putting Palestinians in a hard economic situation. The servility continued until Omar Suleiman suggested Israel to station their military units in Rafah crossing to prevent any communication36 between the Palestinian fighters and the Gazan people. The Egyptians even spent millions of dollars to build the separation wall on their border with the Palestinians in order to complete the siege. So regarding Egypt’s importance for the US, there are two points: First, Cairo is located next to the occupied lands and its good relations with Israel could guarantee Israel’s stability and any disruption in ties will result in changes in favor of Muslims. For, Israel is not able to control Gaza fighters without close cooperation with Egypt. On the other hand, Egypt controls the strategic Suez Canal. An Islamist popular government in Egypt can benefit from the canal (which has no equivalent), pressuring the US in order to gain Islamic nation’s goals. For instance, regarding the Palestinian issue, the canal and its strategic
  36. 36. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningimportance can create many advantages for Muslims. The fourth wave of Islamic Awakening was started bygathering at al-Tahrir square, and turned into a stormycampaign by different occasions like the Day of Anger, andholding the Friday prayers. These protests finally led to thefall of Honsi Mubarak regime, and the military supremecouncil took the power. Changes in Egypt are ongoing withthree parliamentarian elections held so far. Tunisia Tunisia became independent from France in 1956,and Habib Bourguiba was the first president and theunconditioned ruler of the country. In 1987 and after 31years of dictatorship, he was toppled by Zeinul AbedinBen Ali who was a high ranking police officer. Ben Aliwas also similarly toppled after 23 years of dictatorshipin mid January 2011, fleeing to Saudi Arabia. The popularprotests were named Jasmine Revolution. Prime Minister 37al-Ghanoushi immediately claimed power. The political system is multi-party with a legislativeparliament, and 25 ministries. Tunisia is a member of theArab League. The dominant languages are Arabic andFrench and the dominant religion is Islam. According to US Congress Research Center’s report,Tunisia has received 4000 million dollars of economic aid,and 70573 million dollars of military aid from 2008 o 2011(table 6). Jordan Jordan is a country in the Middle East bordered withSyria northward, with Iraq eastward, with Saudi Arabia
  37. 37. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... southward, and with occupied Palestine and West Bank westward. The total border lines with all the neighbors are 1619 kilometers. Jordan reaches Aqaba Gulf from the south, so it has 26 kilometers of water border, which is the least water border among all the Arab countries. Jordan has been pioneer in accepting and implementing the US plan of the new Middle East. As, according to the US Congress Research Center’s report, since the second Persian Gulf crisis in 1991 until 2011, Jordan has benefited from 5299.2 million dollars of economic aid and 3742 million dollars of military aid from the US (table 7). Jordan’s population is unique among other Arab countries, from which half of the population are Palestinian refugees who mainly live in urban context of Jordan. Hence, the effect of actions by Islamists and the Zionists in the occupied lands is more visible in Jordan than other countries. On the other hand, the ruling power in Jordan has been under pressure38 from Islamists due to signing a peace treaty with Israel, and also lack of popular support. The above-mentioned reasons are key factors inciting the popular uprisings in Jordan. The third separation and classification of the popular uprisings in the region: a) Libya Libya is the third biggest exporter of oil in Africa, faces Mediterranean Sea northward, neighboring Sudan from southeast, Chad and Niger Republics from the South, and Algeria and Tunisia from the west and northwest. Libya has a population of six million, 97 percent of which are Sunni Muslims. Nearly 12 clans and tribes are in Libya, and during the recent years, visible Islamist moves have
  38. 38. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningbeen seen in the country. Muammer Gaddafi’s politicalsystem during his 42 years of rule caused him to lose hislegitimacy in all political and economic aspects. Libya isstructurally had an anti-West political system, but Gaddafiwalked with the US and the West whenever he felt necessary.Sending Libya’s nuclear equipments and resources to theUS is only an example. These inexpedient turns made Libyalose its political credit in the international community.Together with that, the closed space in the country blockedthe power shift and did not let the political elites reach thepower. Libya has an ailing economy. At least 30 percent ofthe people are unemployed. This, as many media outletsestimated Gaddafi’s assets as 131 billion dollars. Libyans’ uprising was ignited on February 14, 2001 inBenghazi Port (the second biggest city), Ajdadiah, Misratah,and al-Baida led by Fathi Tarbeel. The crisis in Libya went beyond a civil protest, turninginto an armed conflict for many different reasons. Following 39the escalation of the crisis in Libya, on February 26, 2010;the United Nations Security Council issued the Resolution1970, based on which the Security Council imposed anumber of sanctions against Libyan officials, confirming thejurisdiction of the International Criminal Court to deal withGaddafi’s and some of his relatives’ crimes. But the secondResolution against Libya was a starting point for manycontradicting discussions and comments throughout theinternational arena. On March 17, 2011, the UNSC issuedthe Resolution 1973 to impose a no-fly zone in Libyan skies,allowing other countries to take necessary measures (evenmilitary measures) to implement the no-fly ban, and defendthe civilians. This resolution also allowed all the countries
  39. 39. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... to make sure about the no-fly ban unilaterally or through a joint regional alliance, in order to prevent the killing of civilians through air and also to prevent the arrival of mercenaries to the country. After the arrival of the military forces to implement the Resolution 1973, NATO took the command in Libya war. By arriving NATO warplanes on April 19, 2011, Western powers allied to reach two goals: keeping Gaddafi by making the war erosive; and refraining from distribution of occupying forces throughout Libya. The developments continued in Libya until the spokesman for the transitional Council announced that Gaddafi was killed in Sirt by Misratah’s Kateebat-ul-Barakin forces (Misratah Volcano Battalion). The interim government was formed after Gaddafi’s fall, chaired by Abdul Rahim al- Keib. b) Saudi Arabia40 Saudi Arabia Kingdom is a country west of Asia, located in the Arabian Peninsula. It is bordered with Iraq, Jordan, and Kuwait northward; with UAE, Qatar, and Persian Gulf eastward; with Oman southeastward; with Yemen southward, and with the Red Sea westward. This country holds important religious Muslim centers such as Kaaba, Prophet’s Mosque, and the Prophet’s Tomb. Among the countries on the Southern coast of the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia is the most important for Washington, as it is the US main base. Saudi Arabia is the key agent to control the oil price in OPEC, as it has a high production capacity. The ties between Saudis and the US are affected by two key strategies: 1) Increasing need for oil and the necessity for keeping its price low, 2) The need for Saudi
  40. 40. International Conference on Youth and Islamic AwakeningArabia’s cooperation in fighting with political Islam andanti-American and anti-Israeli moves. Due to Riyadh’sposition and the sensitivity of ties and Saudi Arabia’s keyrole in the region and the mutual interests, the US hasalways tried to refrain to make decisions which disturbthe mutual ties. The US implements its policies in thePersian Gulf, OPEC, Arab League, and Islamic CountriesOrganization through Saudi Arabia. The military-securityties between Washington and Riyadh started in 1950’s. TheUS started to form, organize, train, equip, and manage theSaudi army, and security organizations. Saudi Arabia isthe biggest buyer of weapon and the biggest customer forUS military experts. A number of important military navyand air bases are controlled by the US. The US DefenseDepartment (Pentagon) has established its Headquartersin Prince Sultan air base southern Riyadh for operations inAfghanistan war and also organizing military operationsthroughout the Persian Gulf. At this base, there are 5,000 41American forces, many of which belong to the air base. According to a report by the US Congress ResearchCenter published on March 10, 2011, US military aid toSaudi Arabia has been 3937 million dollars from 2004 to2011 (table 8). 2) Popular uprisings of the region and the regional threatsagainst the US By evaluating and pursuing the Islamic Awakening in eachof the mentioned countries, we conclude that it is a securitythreat for the US interests and also a golden opportunityfor all the Muslim nations in the region. This will makethe White House take different strategies in dealing withthe changes. In the following, economic, political, cultural,
  41. 41. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... social, and military aspects will be discussed. 2-1) Economic, energy, and security threats Considering the eminent position of the economy in the 21st century, economic threats have been highly important. In many countries especially those with capitalist liberal ideology that seek their economic interests beyond their own borders; the economic security has been a critical goal. Accordingly, any changes which retard their initial goals will be considered as a threat against their national security. Therefore, among the achievements of the Islamic Awakening and its economic effects on the US regional security, one can mention stoppage in continuous flow of energy, and consolidation of Iran’ position to provide secure energy. 2-1-1) Stoppage in continuous flow of energy If we study the consumption of oil all over the world, we see that northern America was the biggest consumer of42 crude oil in 2003, with a consumption of 24 million BPD, which accounts for 30% of the global consumption. The US Energy information Administration predicts that the US will be more dependent on the Middle East oil in the future. Based on this prediction, Northern America oil import will increase from 3.3 million BPD in 2001, to 6.1 million BPD in 2025 and almost the whole imported oil will be delivered to the United States of America. Considering the following facts, any anti-dependence change or revolution which brings Islamist governments to power in strategic Middle East and Northern Africa regions; could lead to a stoppage in continuous flow of energy to developed and industrial oil-dependent countries: Oil and its derivatives will globally stay the most important
  42. 42. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningenergy sources at least for many decades, Longevity of oil and natural gas reserves in the MiddleEast, Increase in demand for fossil and inexpensive fuels Oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 have shown losses in theWest and particularly the US due to the interruption of oilflow. 2-1-2) increasing importance of Iran’s position and rolein supplying secure energy Since political-security stability is one of the conditionsof investments to provide energy security, domestic crisisand general protests can endanger that government’s status.Also if that country plays an important role in the regionaland international economy, anti-government uprisings canlead to limitation in investment resulting in decreasingthe energy exports. Currently, considering the changes inimportant countries of the Middle East and Northern Africa,who are mostly energy exporters, the position of stable 43countries such as Iran has been strengthened in supplyingand providing secure energy, and this is a security threat inenergy zone for the interests of the White House. 2-2) Security-political threats Regarding the definition presented for security threats,a political threat is defined as any threat that politicallyendangers the security of a country, regardless of itsorigin. As every move has different consequences, popularuprisings in the Islamic world have also political impacts onthe security of ultra-region powers in the Middle East whichresults in derogation of Israel’s security and existence,development of Islamist revolutionary movements, Iran’snuclear issue being overshadowed, and disruptions in peace
  43. 43. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... process. 2-2-1) Derogation of Israel’s security and existence It is one of the quickest consequences of the Islamic Awakening, as important as security threats against critical interests of the US. Currently, Israel is surrounded by Egypt from the south, by Lebanon Hezbollah from the north, by Hamas from the west, and by Syria and Jordan from the east. Syria is now seeking to repossess the Golan Heights, Egyptians to repossess Sina Desert and to cut natural gas export to Israel and to end diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv, and Palestinian refugees to get back to their original lands. The Zionist regime is also under pressure from Arab residents of the occupied lands, and the latter issue will raise the possibility of the third Intifada. There have also been riots in Jewish settlements in protest at Netanyahu’s economic policies, which have created a political earthquake in Israel’s ruling party. Taking of the Israeli embassy in Cairo44 by the Egyptian youth, Israeli ambassador’s escape, and the victory of Islamists affiliated with Muslim Brotherhood in three stages of Egypt’s parliamentary elections; have all made Israeli high ranking officials worried. As the Israeli Minister of war affairs, Ehud Barak, has warned about the future security of his regime considering the current situation of Egypt, saying: “I did my best to maintain the ties with Egypt, but things changed anyway and a dark and insecure future is waiting for us”. He was talking on Zionist Regime Radio, saying: “Israel is expected to have a dark future by emerging Islamist movements in some Arab countries, and we cannot imagine a secure and safe view for Israel and for the region”. The US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has also warned
  44. 44. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningagainst Israel’s increasing isolation in the Middle East,urging Tel Aviv to take diplomatic measures to solvethe problem. Panetta also reminds that Tel Aviv faces aninternational challenge, designed to put Israel in isolation. 2-2-2) Development of Islamist RevolutionaryMovements Considering the religious nature of the uprisings,throughout the whole region from Egypt to Bahrain,Islamist groups have been the major players in recentrevolutions and developments, and these Islamist forceswill play an important role in any political structures in theircountries. Such an issue is considered a serious threat to theUS political security in long term. Because Islamists havealways been a threat to the interests of the White Housein any country they were in power. As their first step, theIslamists always either downgraded or cut their ties withthe West. As an example, we can refer to the victory ofMuslim Brotherhood in Egypt’s Parliamentary elections, 45and Islamist party, al-Nahda’s success in Tunisia’s electionsfor the Constitutional Council. In this regard, Abdol-RahimKeib, the new Libyan Prime Minister, has said that hiscountry will have an Islamic government and Islam will bethe origin in legislation. Al-Nahda party chief, Rashid al-Ghanoushi has also said that Tunisia will build a typicalMuslim country where terrorism, bigotry, extremism, andenmity with democracy are totally absent. Libyans alsocalled for the formation of an Islamic system in one of theirdemonstrations in Benghazi, which was the center of theten-month revolution against the dictatorship. 2-2-3) Iran’s nuclear energy issue is overshadowed After the regional countries were engaged in dealing
  45. 45. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... with their domestic problems which were more important for themselves, issues like Iran’s nuclear program and the UEA claim to possess Iranian triple islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa; have been the second priority of them regarding their interests. They have tried to focus in short term on solving their own internal conflicts, and stabilizing their own regional position. The example of such decisions is that the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council dropped the issue of Iranian triple islands in their March 7, 2011 gathering. This has also decreased Iranophobia in the West regarding this issue. 2-2-4) Disruptions in peace process Another political threat is the disruption in the Arabs- Israel peace process which has happened following the fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt as the main regional supporter of Israel, the escapes by this regime’s allies in the Middle East and Northern Africa, and agreements between Hamas46 and Fatah and efforts to form a national reconciliation government in Palestine. 2-3) Social-Cultural threats to security Nowadays, most of the political systems in the world regard developing and maintaining their desirable values as a part of their national interests. With that definition, the factors that weaken or destroy such values are categorized as cultural or social threats. The properties that characterize these threats from other national security threats are their comprehensiveness and continuity. In other words, cultural and social threats are dangerous as security threat only when they are turned into a comprehensive and continued process. Regarding the anti-American uprisings in the Middle East and Northern African regions, there are some cultural-social
  46. 46. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningthreats to the US regional security such as: decreasing thehegemony of liberal democracy debate, increasing people’sroles, and the soft influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 2-3-1) Decreasing the hegemony of liberal democracydebate These changes act as a security threat in cultural-social zonefor the White House and the most important achievement ofthem is from one hand decreasing the hegemony of liberaldemocracy debate and inability of capitalism culture,and from other hand, restoring Muslims’ revolutionaryidentity, and increasing nations’ trend to political Islam andcomprehensiveness of the religious rule in protests. One of the evident examples of deterioration of US positionis the fall of their embassy in Tripoli by young protestersand the emergence of Occupy Wall Street Movement in theUS, protesting at economic policies. The movement callsitself the 99 percent against the ruling minority of 1 percent.They asserted themselves after September 17, 2100 despite 47wide censorship during the initial days, spreading to morethan 80 capitalist countries. They attracted supporters indifferent cities of the US but they faced heavy crackdownby police. Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union,has recognized the movement to occupy the Wall Streetas the symbol of capitalism, saying: “American people’suprising is similar to the one we witnessed on the verge ofSoviet fall.” 2-3-2) Increasing people’s roles in changes and evolutions According to the Western theory paradigms, any changein a society must start from its elites, and then evolves. Inother words, since the Western communities are elitist, the
  47. 47. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... mass people are not directly playing role in changes. But Islamic uprisings proved that people, as the main social resources, are the major role players of the changes and the main deciders of their fates. They sometimes even guide their elites, an example of which is the turnout of more than 60 percent of Egyptians and Tunisians in their parliamentary elections. 2-3-3) the soft influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region The similarity of some of the protesters’ demands with the characteristics of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, has worried the West particularly Washington towards the adherence of protesters from the Islamic Republic of Iran model. It is wise to claim that increasing the influence of such mentality despite the implementation of Iranophobia and Shiaphobia projects, is the biggest security threat in cultural-social zone. This adherence to Iran can cause those48 countries to reject compromises and sow resistance. This great achievement can open up a kind of strategic break time space for Iran, and it is very unlikely that Washington can block such a space. 2-4) military threats of security Among the achievements of the Middle East changes is the military threat which can appear in one of the following forms: threat against the US military bases in the Middle East and their possible moves, increasing the possibility of change in the security structure of the Persian Gulf, and the establishment of an anti-West local structure, and the US inability to control terrorism. 2-4-1) Changes in the arrangement of US military bases The wideness of popular uprisings in the region has
  48. 48. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakeningcreated strategic threats against the existence of US basesin the region. It gets more important to keep these basesat the time when Washington is withdrawing its troopsaccording to security agreements with Baghdad. Based ona report by the Congress Research Service on March 21,2011 any possible change in the power balance and the riseof a Shia government close to Islamic Republic of Iran,seriously contrast with the US security priority regarding themilitary arrangement of the Persian Gulf. Accordingly thecontinuation of political-security instability will probablymake Washington revise the geographical location of theNavy’s 5th fleet Headquarters. Therefore, if the US regional allies are omitted, thePentagon will start to gradually remove and leave theirmilitary bases in these countries and the Middle East willget rid of arms race and the so called humanitarian wars. 2-4-2) increasing the possibility of change in securitystructure of the Persian Gulf 49 Persian Gulf’s security structure is in a way that any shiftin security balances will have consequences in national,regional, and ultra-region scales. Continuing popularuprisings in Arab countries will increase the possibility ofchanges in military-security structures of the Persian Gulf.If popular uprisings win and anti-US governments areformed, the new governments will cut off the White Housesuperior hand by forming new anti-West blocks. Conclusion According to the US national security strategy in the21st century, the security of allies are considered as criticalinterest for the US, and on the other hand, critical interests
  49. 49. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... are one degree lower than survival interests without which the US will not exist. Consequently Islamic Awakening and establishment of religious democratic systems which are independent from the US will endanger the national securities of the US. This threat has short-term, medium- term, and long-term effects on Washington’s regional security. In order to respond to this article’s question, the research findings suggest that the effects of the Islamic Awakening on the US security in Middle East and North Africa’s geo- politic, geo-economic, geo-security regions are as follows (sequential in national interests pyramid): Energy-economic threats including stoppage in the continuous flow of energy and strengthening the position of Iran in providing secure energy Political threats including weakening the security and endangering the existence of Israel, development of Islamist50 movements, the Iranian nuclear issue being overshadowed, and disruption in peace process Military threats include The change in the arrangement of the military bases and increasing the possibility of change in security structure of the Persian Gulf Cultural-social threats include decreasing the hegemony of liberal democracy debate, increasing the role of mass people in changes and increasing soft influence of Iran on the region. The White House now faces a range of security threats in the regions in Middle East and North African which are changing. Since the critical goals and the reference security values of the US have been threatened, the vulnerability is high, and the consequences will be heavy. Therefore,
  50. 50. International Conference on Youth and Islamic AwakeningWashington is trying to lead and manage the evolutions andchanges to its own favor. And this proves the US doublestandard policy towards the uprisings. For instance, inzones where any change in the current situation threatensWashington’s interests; humanitarian values are easilyforgotten in the US foreign policy. The instance is the greenlight given to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain to crack down theShia movement; or the silence strategy towards killing ofYemeni people. Regarding the protests in Yemen, Kuwait, US has taken apolicy in which one hand, it supports the protesters, but onthe other hand, it gives the ruling governments necessaryguarantees to keep their existence. Over the popular protests in Egypt and Tunisia, Washingtonis riding the wave of protests in order to prevent the rising ofIslamists. Or in Syria’s case, the White House supports theprotesters in order to make Damascus change its attitude,or revise ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran or Lebanon 51Hezbollah. Regarding Libya, Washington armed theprotesters, issued the Resolution 1973 in the UN SecurityCouncil, sending NATO into the internal changes in Tripoli.These double standards show an apparent paradox in theUS announced policies and its applied policies. Therefore, in response to the US policies, the IslamicRepublic of Iran needs to take a strategic measure in orderto maintain its domestic and regional security. Iran needsto create more options to keep its security and decrease itsvulnerability against other counties’ actions.
  51. 51. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... Table 1: Islamic groups after the occurrence of Islamic Revolution of Iran Year Name of Movement Number established Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Resistance 1987 1 Movement) 1980 Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement 2 1990 Palestinian Hezbollah 352 1982 Lebanon Hezbollah 4 the Supreme Council for the Islamic 1980 5 Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) 1980 Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan 6 1980 Islamic Movement of Afghanistan 7 1989 Algeria Islamic Najah Front 8 1981 Tunisia al-Nahda 9 Figure 1: the Pyramid of US national interests in the Middle East Figure 2: the spectrum of threat status
  52. 52. International Conference on Youth and Islamic Awakening Table 2: US military bases through the Middle East Military Base Country Bilad Air Base Al-Talil Air Base in Nasiriah Al-Assad Military Center Camp Victory Al-Qayareh Camp Iraq Marines Camp Kirkuk Camp Erbil Camp Bashur CampSultan Abdul-Aziz Air Base in ZahranMalik Fahad Air Base in Ta’ef Sultan Khalid Air Base Saudi Arabia Iskan Settlement Air Base Riyadh Air Base Prince Sultan Air Base 53 Izmir Air Base Injerlik Air Base TurkeyNATO quick response center of commandersAhmad al-Jabir Air Base (HQ of US Army in ME) Ali al-Salem Air Base Doha Air Base Kuwait Udairi Air Base (HQ of common attack forces) Arifjan Camp 5th Navy HQ of US Navy in Bahrain ME Al-Adeed Air Base Qatar US Air Force HQ in ME
  53. 53. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... Al-Zafra’ Air Base in Abu Dhabi (US military magazine in United Arab Emirates the region) Al-Fajeerah Military Center Bagram Military Base Holang Air Base Afghanistan Khyber Path Spy Center Table 3: US Military Aid to Bahrain (million dollars) Military Aid Year 90.448 2003 25.2 2004 20.895 2005 24.305 2006 40.93 2007 9.634 2008 25.361 2009 20.77 201054 21.7 2011 279.333 Total Source: Kenneth Katzman (2011) Bahrain: Reform, Security and U.S. Policy ,Congressional Research Service (CRS), p.23 Table 4: US Aid to Yemen (million dollars) Economic Aid Military Aid Year 7.920 10.780 2006 12 13.336 2007 6.413 8.931 2008 31 6.325 2009 40 13.6 2010 34 40.6 2011 47.56 36.1 2012 178.893 129.672 Total Source: Jeremy M. Sharp, (2011) Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations, Congressional Research Service (CRS), p.27
  54. 54. International Conference on Youth and Islamic AwakeningTable 5: US Foreign Aid to Egypt after the World War II (million dollars) Economic Aid Military Aid Year 23288.6 22353.5 1948-1997 815 13000 1998 775 13000 1999 727.3 13000 2000 695 13000 2001 655 13000 2002 911 13000 2003 571.6 1292.3 2204 530.7 1289.6 2005 490 12870 2006 450 13000 2007 411.6 1289.4 2008 250 13000 2009 250 13000 2010 250 13000 2011 30820.8 39211.8 TotalSource: Jeremy M .Sharp (2011) Egypt in Transition, CongressionalResearch Service (CRS), p.14 55 Table 6: US Foreign Aid to Tunisia (million dollars) Total 2011 2010 2009 2008 Year 70537 7200 20150 22925 20298 Military Aid Economic 4000 0 2000 800 1200 AidSource: Alexis Arieff (2011) Political Transition in Tunisia,Congressional Research Service (CRS), p.25
  55. 55. A survey on the effects of Islamic Awakening on ... Table 7: US Foreign Aid to Jordan after the Second Persian Gulf War (million dollars) Economic Aid Military Aid Year 35 21.3 1991 50 20.6 1992 35 9.5 1993 28 9.8 1994 28.9 8.3 1995 36.1 201.2 1996 120.4 31.7 1997 151.2 76.6 1998 200 121.6 1999 200 226.6 2000 151.7 76.7 2001 251.6 102 2002 951 606.4 2003 352.3 208.9 2004 351.6 309 2005 299.1 210.9 2006 255.3 254.1 200756 561.4 351.2 2008 413.5 388.1 2009 463 353.8 2010 363 303.7 2011 5299.2 3742 Total Source: Jeremy M. Sharp, (2011) Jordan: Background and U.S. Relations, Congressional Research Service (CRS), p. 28 Table 8: US Foreign Military Aid to Saudi Arabia (million dollars) Total 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Year Military 3937 370 208 361 113 319 1576 966.9 23.5 Aid Source: Christopher M. Blanchard (2011) Saudi Arabia: Background and U.S. Relations, Congressional Research Service (CRS), p.5
  56. 56. Analytical glance to Supreme Leader’s attitude about...
  57. 57. Analytical glance to Supreme Leader’s attitude about aerial changes at Middle East & North of Africa Hossein Behmanesh1 Abstract Most of political sciences and specialists in social changes have faced with a type of confusion due to the occurrence of public movements at Middle East and North of Africa which led to fall of governors at Tunisia, Egypt and Libya one after the other accompanied with wide non-calmness at Bahrain, Yemen and limited disagreements in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Algeria and Syria. It is possible to say that basic theories of these accidents are the real reasons of these difficulties. The analysis and attitude of supreme leader about these accidents are the real guidelines for finding the identity and origin of aerial changes as well. For this paper, we58 have benefited from his official speeches and notices from 09.Jan.2011 up to his speech at International Islamic Awakening Conference on 17.Sept.2011. It has been tried to find a specific and theoretical solution from his attitude about these changes in a fixed framework and through three sections of identity understanding, origins and guidelines. This paper assumes that Supreme leader has a prior view and analysis about aerial changes in continuation of Islamic Revolution Way and its occurrence as well. Therefore all mentioned changes are named as Islamic Awakening. Upon evaluation of his speech, the author concluded that 1. Master of Science student at 3rd semester in International Relations Field Faculty of Human Sciences – Gilan University With guidance of: Dr. Ahmad Jansiz, Professor Assistant in Political Sciences- Faculty of Human Sciences-Gilan University