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Observing Paradigm Change in China through 10 years

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Observing Paradigm Change in China through 10 years

  1. 1. <ul>Observe paradigm changes in China through10 years </ul><ul>@isaac China Development Forum LSE </ul>
  2. 2. 敬请注意: 以下内容包含有大量景德镇产敏感瓷 可能会引起观看者心理不适
  3. 3. Prequel trilogy <ul><li>The Internet first came to China in 1987; college campusappeared at Tsinghua University in 1991. The first international connection, between the BeijingElectro-Spectrometer and Stanford University’s Linear Accelerator, came in 1994.10
  4. 4. Through much of 1995 the government was still barely noticing the Internet, but in January 1996 found itto be a “problem” and ordered that people register with Public Security
  5. 5. During1997 college students online by 2001; a considerable amount of commerce—which the government did not want to discourage—was happening on the Internet as well. </li></ul>Prof. Xiao Qiang Prof. Perry Link
  6. 6. 10 Years 2009
  7. 7. <ul>A fairy story </ul><ul>  </ul>l 1999: donews <ul>2005:isaacmao.com </ul><ul>2007: @isaac </ul><ul>2002: Cesblog.blogspot.com </ul>
  8. 8. Collective (in)Action Problem in Authoritarian States <ul><li>Censorship: makes it easier to isolate, crush </li><ul><li>Noises(especially in China, Wumao) </li></ul><li>Restrict means of organization
  9. 9. High cost of dissent individual: torture/jail
  10. 10. Minimize protest/cascade potential;isolate,crush(whack-a-protest) </li></ul>Zeynep Tufekci Assistant professor at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
  11. 11. Censors in 10 years <ul><li>2002, falungong,tiananmen
  12. 12. 2003, RFA, VOA, BBC, etc.
  13. 13. 2004, typepad.com,blogspot.com
  14. 14. 2005, PirateBay, Technorati.com
  15. 15. 2006, Wikileaks, flickr.com (party)
  16. 16. 2007, Wikia, Wikipedia.com(partly)
  17. 17. 2008, youtube.com
  18. 18. 2009, twitter.com, facebook.com
  19. 19. 2010, Nobleprize.org, google.com and services
  20. 20. 2011, dropbox.com </li></ul>Rebecca Mackinnon Bernard L. Schwartz Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, “Consent of the Networked” Self-censorship Business compromise Technology Political
  21. 21. <ul>Great Firewall and River Crab </ul><ul>  </ul>墙国
  22. 22. <ul>Paradigm change </ul><ul>  </ul>
  23. 23. Back To Real World
  24. 24. Some“Facts”
  25. 25. Social God Calculates 2.2×10^8 × 0.66 × k ×(1 - μ) == 3 × 10^ 6 ; k as frequency from active users Let's say 0.5 posts/day ; μ rate of censorship , we get μ = 95.9% http://passbyer.blog125.fc2.com/blog-entry-10.html
  26. 26. From Taboo to Tattoo
  27. 27. <ul>Social Art </ul><ul>  </ul>
  28. 28. Net Meme Evolution 2003 2010
  29. 29. Cute Cat Model Ethan Zuckman Director of the Center for Civic Media, MIT
  30. 30. <ul>Fold : Invisible truth </ul><ul>  </ul>
  31. 31. Time elapsed Level of meme The Torrent of Meme:@amoiist 2009/7/16 4:50am 2009/7/31 @amoiist released @amoiist SOS @blogtd rt @isaac: 郭宝峰你妈妈喊你回家吃饭 @wenyunchao rt @mranti action @wenyunchao 寄送明信片 @freemoren rt
  32. 32. More Metaphors ouroboros
  33. 33. How Intelligence Shift
  34. 34. A Long Bet
  35. 35. <ul>Future: My Predictions </ul><ul><li>Back to basic values (10 yrs)
  36. 36. Collapse of Censorship (3 yrs)
  37. 37. Credibility building (20 yrs)
  38. 38. Sharism and Cloud Intelligence (50 yrs) </li></ul>
  39. 39. Thanks @isaac

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