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© 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and
may not be disclosed or re...
2
Methodology
Methodology
3
Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015
Sample Size 1,964
Sampling methodology
Random, Multi-stage stra...
Sample Structure Statistics
4
Region
Sample Frame statistics
(April 2015)
*Weighted data
%
Population Census as at 2009
Ad...
Quality Control Measures
 For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
 Field managers visit a...
6
Respondents’
Demographic Profile
28%
2%
30%
8%
11%
9%
10%
1%
1%
9%
22%
28%
23%
4%
4%
2%
5%
1%
2%
Catholic
Catholic Charismatic
Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…...
Demographic Profile
4%
14%
19%
14%
26%
8%
7%
3%
3%
1%
42%
33%
11%
4%
1%
1%
0%
2%
7%
No formal education
Some primary educa...
Demographic Profile
41%
18%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
2%
1%
Self-Employed
Unemployed
Employed in the private sector
Peasant/herder ...
10
Constituency
Development Fund
(CDF)
Awareness of Any CDF Project in the Locality (Single Response):
(By Total, Setting)
11
40%
9%
8%
7%
1% 1%
4%
30%
29%
13%
6...
“Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the
local level?”
(By Total, Supporters of the Main Political ...
“Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the
local level?”
(By Total, Supporters of the Main Political ...
Preferred Oversight Responsibility for CDF (of Those 85% Who
Want It To Continue At All)
(By Total, Supporters of Main Pol...
15
Public Participation
“Are you satisfied with the opportunities made available to the
public for public participation by the..?” (By Total)
16
4...
17
Support for Devolution
“Altogether, do you support devolution , that is, having county
governments in Kenya?”
(By Total and Supporters of the Mai...
“Altogether, do you support devolution i.e. having county
governments in Kenya?” – Trend Analysis
19
69%
78%
28%
21%
3% 2%...
“How much confidence you have in each of the following, a lot of
confidence, some confidence, only a little confidence, or...
21
Desired Changes in the
Constitution
“What changes would you like to see in the current Constitution, if
any?” (Multiple Response) (By Total)
13%
11%
9%
9%
9%
...
For further information contact:
Dr Tom Wolf
Research Analyst
tpwolf1944@gmail.com
Victor Rateng
Project Manager - Opinion...
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Confident with the Principle, Critical with the Practice: Kenyans Speak Out on Devolution Ke ipsos spec_poll_press_release_22nd_april_2015

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There is overwhelming support for devolution by the public, with more than three-quarters (78%) expressing this view. This represents a considerable increase since last September, when such support was expressed by only two-thirds (69%) of all respondents.

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Confident with the Principle, Critical with the Practice: Kenyans Speak Out on Devolution Ke ipsos spec_poll_press_release_22nd_april_2015

  1. 1. © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. SPEC Barometer Prepared by: Ipsos Press Release Release date: 22nd April 2015
  2. 2. 2 Methodology
  3. 3. Methodology 3 Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015 Sample Size 1,964 Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Universe Data collection methodology Sampling error Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Poll funding Ipsos Limited Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas +/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
  4. 4. Sample Structure Statistics 4 Region Sample Frame statistics (April 2015) *Weighted data % Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) % Central 257 13 2,548,038 13 Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9 Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15 Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10 North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5 Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13 Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25 Western 200 10 1,980,090 10 TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
  5. 5. Quality Control Measures  For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout  Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).  After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).  Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.  Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters. 5 Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data
  6. 6. 6 Respondents’ Demographic Profile
  7. 7. 28% 2% 30% 8% 11% 9% 10% 1% 1% 9% 22% 28% 23% 4% 4% 2% 5% 1% 2% Catholic Catholic Charismatic Mainstream Protestant (ACK,… SDA Evangelical Other Christian Muslim Refused To Answer/None No religion Public Sector wages/salary Private sector wages /salary Gains from self employment/… Agriculture (own/household farm) Livestock Given money by others Pension from previous employment Other Don’t Know Refused To Answer Demographic Profile 10% 9% 13% 25% 5% 15% 13% 10% 51% 49% 28% 29% 18% 25% 37% 63% 100% Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western Female Male 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+ Urban Rural Kenyans 7 Region Gender Age Setting Religion Nationality Source of Household Income Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  8. 8. Demographic Profile 4% 14% 19% 14% 26% 8% 7% 3% 3% 1% 42% 33% 11% 4% 1% 1% 0% 2% 7% No formal education Some primary education Primary education completed Some secondary education Secondary education completed Some middle level college (not… Completed mid-level college (Not… Some University education University education completed Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD) Less than 10,000 10,001 – 25,000 25,001 – 40,000 40,001 – 55,000 55,001 – 75,000 75,001 – 100,000 100,001 and above Has No income RTA/DK 8 Level of Education Monthly Household Income (ALL members of the Household) Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  9. 9. Demographic Profile 41% 18% 11% 10% 7% 5% 5% 2% 1% Self-Employed Unemployed Employed in the private sector Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture) Casual labour Employed in the public sector Student Retired Other 9 Employment Status Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  10. 10. 10 Constituency Development Fund (CDF)
  11. 11. Awareness of Any CDF Project in the Locality (Single Response): (By Total, Setting) 11 40% 9% 8% 7% 1% 1% 4% 30% 29% 13% 6% 8% 1% 6% 37% 46% 7% 10% 7% 1% 3% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Total (n=1,964) Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)
  12. 12. “Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the local level?” (By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/ Coalitions) 12 85% 10% 5% 87% 8% 5% 86% 10% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% YES NO Not Sure Total (n=1,954) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
  13. 13. “Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the local level?” (By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/ Coalitions) 13 93% 87% 5% 9% 2% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% CDF has been "a complete success" (n=700) CDF has been "only a partial success/failure" (n=634) YES NO Not Sure
  14. 14. Preferred Oversight Responsibility for CDF (of Those 85% Who Want It To Continue At All) (By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions) 14 38% 41% 18% 2% 39% 46% 14% 1% 40% 38% 20% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% MPs/Parliament County Governments Central Government Not Sure Total (n=1,678) CORD Supporters (n=541) Jubilee Supporters (n=748)
  15. 15. 15 Public Participation
  16. 16. “Are you satisfied with the opportunities made available to the public for public participation by the..?” (By Total) 16 42% 44%45% 41% 9% 11% 4% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Central government County government Satisfied Not satisfied Not sure Not interested in participating
  17. 17. 17 Support for Devolution
  18. 18. “Altogether, do you support devolution , that is, having county governments in Kenya?” (By Total and Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions) 18 78% 77% 80% 21% 23% 18% 2% 1% 1% Total (n=1,964) Jubilee Supporters (n=867) CORD Supporters (n=623) YES NO RTA
  19. 19. “Altogether, do you support devolution i.e. having county governments in Kenya?” – Trend Analysis 19 69% 78% 28% 21% 3% 2% September 2014 (n=2,021) April 2015 (n=1,964) YES NO RTA
  20. 20. “How much confidence you have in each of the following, a lot of confidence, some confidence, only a little confidence, or no confidence at all in …? (By Total) 20% 22% 21% 19% 38% 44% 37% 34% 18% 19% 21% 21%22% 14% 20% 25% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Your County Assembly Representative (MCA) County Governments Governors Senators A lot of confidence Some confidence Only a little confidence No confidence at all Don't Know 20Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  21. 21. 21 Desired Changes in the Constitution
  22. 22. “What changes would you like to see in the current Constitution, if any?” (Multiple Response) (By Total) 13% 11% 9% 9% 9% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% 10% 20% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% A reduction in the number of elected officials Limits on salaries and benefits for senior government officials/more powers to the SRC Replacement of IEBC Less power for the governors/counties Health services to remain a central government responsibility More power for the governors/counties A move away from pure presidential system to parliamentary system Increase presidential powers Strengthen chapter 6 on integrity of leaders Bill of rights Invalid answers (not relevant to the Constitution) None Not sure 22Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  23. 23. For further information contact: Dr Tom Wolf Research Analyst tpwolf1944@gmail.com Victor Rateng Project Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com Website: www.ipsos.co.ke Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe 23

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