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Confidence Ratings: Public Officials and Independent Institutions

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Once again, the President is ‘bested’ only by the First Lady in terms of the confidence the public has in senior officials, commissions, and non-state actors. However, his rating was affected negatively by the al-Shabaab attack at the Garissa University College.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Confidence Ratings: Public Officials and Independent Institutions

  1. 1. © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. SPEC Barometer: Performance Ratings Press Release: General Media Prepared by: Ipsos Release date: 27th May 2015
  2. 2.  Current confidence ratings:  Jubilee leadership  Other senior government officials  Government institutions  Independent commissions  Non-state actors  Trend analysis: Selected confidence ratings • Top government officials • IEBC  Performance comparison: Jubilee vs. Grand-coalition government in 13 policy areas  Total, CORD vs. Jubilee supporters  Trend analysis: total combined positive vs. negative performance ratings 2 Contents
  3. 3. 3 Methodology
  4. 4. Methodology 4 Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015 Sample Size 1,964 Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Universe Data collection methodology Sampling error Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Poll funding Ipsos Limited Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in Urban and Rural areas +/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
  5. 5. Sample Structure Statistics 5 Region Sample Frame statistics (April 2015) *Weighted data % Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) % Central 257 13 2,548,038 13 Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9 Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15 Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10 North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5 Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13 Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25 Western 200 10 1,980,090 10 TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
  6. 6. Quality Control Measures  For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout  Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).  After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).  Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.  Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters. 6 Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data
  7. 7. 7 Respondents’ Demographic Profile:
  8. 8. 28% 2% 30% 8% 11% 9% 10% 1% 1% 9% 22% 28% 23% 4% 4% 2% 5% 1% 2% Catholic Catholic Charismatic Mainstream Protestant (ACK,… SDA Evangelical Other Christian Muslim Refused To Answer/None No religion Public Sector wages/salary Private sector wages /salary Gains from self employment/… Agriculture (own/household farm) Livestock Given money by others Pension from previous employment Other Don’t Know Refused To Answer Demographic Profile 10% 9% 13% 25% 5% 15% 13% 10% 51% 49% 28% 29% 18% 25% 37% 63% 100% Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western Female Male 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+ Urban Rural Kenyans 8 Region Gender Age Setting Religion Nationality Source of Household Income Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  9. 9. Demographic Profile 4% 14% 19% 14% 26% 8% 7% 3% 3% 1% 42% 33% 11% 4% 1% 1% 0% 2% 7% No formal education Some primary education Primary education completed Some secondary education Secondary education completed Some middle level college (not… Completed mid-level college (Not… Some University education University education completed Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD) Less than 10,000 10,001 – 25,000 25,001 – 40,000 40,001 – 55,000 55,001 – 75,000 75,001 – 100,000 100,001 and above Has No income RTA/DK 9 Level of Education Monthly Household Income (ALL members of the Household) Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  10. 10. Demographic Profile 41% 18% 11% 10% 7% 5% 5% 2% 1% Self-Employed Unemployed Employed in the private sector Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture) Casual labour Employed in the public sector Student Retired Other 10 Employment Status Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  11. 11. 11 Performance Ratings
  12. 12. “How much confidence you have in each of the following institutions/public office holders. Do you have…?” (The Executive) (% for “some confidence” / “only a little confidence” not shown) 12 48% 35% 19% 19% 18% 14% 10% 11% 22% 15% 18% 19% 25% 24% President Uhuru Kenyatta Deputy President Ruto William National Government in general County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers The Attorney-General Githu Muigai The Cabinet Secretaries Department of Immigration A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  13. 13. Level of Confidence: The Executive % saying “a lot of confidence” by Jubilee Vs. CORD Supporters Institution/Public Office Holder Jubilee Supporters (n=871) CORD Supporters (n=624) % Difference The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 68% 22% -46% The Deputy President (William Ruto) 55% 12% -43% Cabinet Secretaries 18% 9% -9% The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 25% 13% -12% County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers 21% 19% -2% Department of Immigration 10% 11% -1% National Government in general 24% 13% -11% 13
  14. 14. Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence” (% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown) 14 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48% 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35% 18% 11% 11% 17% 42% 19% 14% 23% 14% 12% 19% 48% 22% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2013 February 2014 May 2014 September 2014 *October 2014 November 2014 *December 2014 April 2015 The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) The Deputy President (William Ruto) Cabinet Secretaries The Attorney General : Githu Muigai **N/A **N/A: Not Asked *CATI surveys President’s ICC status conference ICC case against the President withdrawn
  15. 15. Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence” (% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown) 15 Institution/Public Office Holder November 2013 February 2014 May 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 April 2015 The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48% The Deputy President (William Ruto) 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35% Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14% The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18% County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers - - - 14% - 19% - 19% Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10% National Government in general - - - 27% - 26% - 19%
  16. 16. “How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?” County Governments (% for “some confidence", "only a little confidence” not shown) 16 22% 21% 20% 19% 14% 20% 22% 25% County Governments (in general) Governors Your County Assembly Representative (MCA) Senators A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  17. 17. “How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?” Security Services & the Judiciary (% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence” not shown) 17 32% 22% 21% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 12% 9% 17% 14% 19% 31% 14% 20% 16% 15% The Military/Kenya Defense Forces Chief Justice Willy Mutunga The Supreme Court Judges of the Kenyan Courts The Police Inspector General of Police (Joseph Boinnet) The Judiciary Intelligence Service/National Intelligence Services Other Courts A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  18. 18. “How much confidence you have in each of the following …?” Current and Former Public Officials (% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown) 18 55% 29% 22% 19% 18% 18% 18% 15% 14% 8% 30% 20% 14% 32% 31% 23% 27% 23% First Lady Margaret Kenyatta CORD Principal Raila Odinga Your Member of Parliament Political Parties CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula Opposition Majority Leader Aden Duale Speaker of the National Assembly Justin Muturi A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  19. 19. “How much confidence you have in each of the following …?” Civil Society/Independent Institutions (% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown) 19 46% 43% 33% 22% 21% 16% 13% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 4% 8% 4% 7% 6% 28% 19% 21% 15% 26% 21% 29% The Media Your religious leaders Ipsos Opinion Survey Firms Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)/Civil Society Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) Director of Public Prosecutions Keriako Tobiko Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA) National Land Commission Salaries and Remuneration Commission Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  20. 20. 20 Confidence Ratings: November 2013 – April 2015
  21. 21. Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence” (% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown) 21 Institution/Public Office Holder Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Oct. 2014 Nov. 2014 Dec. 2014 April 2015 The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48% The Deputy President (William Ruto) 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35% Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14% The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18% County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers - - - 14% - 18% - 19% Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10% National Government in general - - - 27% - 26% - 19% County Assembly Representatives (MCAs) - - - 21% - 20% - 20% County Governments 28% 13% 13% 20% - 22% - 22% Governors - - - 23% - 25% - 21% Senators 21% 11% 13% 19% - 23% - 19% The Media 68% 43% 31% 42% - 42% - 46% Religious Leaders 50% 39% 36% 46% - 35% - 43% Civil Society/NGOs - - - 18% - 28% 45% 21% Opinion Survey Firms - - 20% 22% - 25% - 22% Ipsos Limited (Kenya) - - - 33% - 34% - 33% National Land Commission 16% 7% 9% 14% - 14% - 10% Salaries and Remuneration Commission (SRC) 23% 13% 12% 13% - 13% - 10% Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) 30% 21% 16% 23% - 23% - 16% Director of Public Prosecutions 32% 8% 10% 12% - 15% - 11% Ethics and Anti Corruption Commission (EACC) - - - - - 11% - 9% Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA) - - - - - - - 11% Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) - - - - - - - 13%
  22. 22. Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence” (% for “some confidence” , “only a little confidence, "no confidence at all” not shown) 22 Institution/Public Office Holder Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Oct. 2014 Nov. 2014 Dec. 2014 April 2015 The Police 20% 11% 11% 19% - 18% - 15% Inspector-General of Police: David Kimaiyo 24% 12% 15% 19% - 19% Inspector-General of Police: Joseph Boinnet - 15% Cabinet Secretary for Interior: Joseph Nkaissery - - - - - - 48% Intelligence Service/National Intelligence Services (NIS) 18% 10% 10% 16% - 16% - 15% The Military/Kenya Defense Forces - - 27% 37% - 48% - 32% The Judiciary - - 17% - 17% - 15% The Supreme Court 28% 16% 16% 20% - 25% - 21% Other Courts 21% 12% 9% 13% - 15% - 12% The Chief Justice: Willy Mutunga 27% 16% 15% 24% - 27% - 22% Judges of the Kenyan Courts - - - 16% - - - 16% Political Parties - 7% 10% 22% - 19% - 19% CORD Principal Raila Odinga 37% 25% 24% 28% - 24% - 29% CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka - - - 20% - 16% - 18% CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula - - - 19% - 15% - 18% Retired President Kibaki - - - 27% - - - - Retired President Moi - - - 26% - - - - National Assembly /Parliament 15% - 15% - 11% Speaker of the National Assembly: Justin Muturi 19% 12% 12% 16% - 15% - 14% Majority Leader :Aden Duale - - - 16% - 18% - 15% Your Member of Parliament /MPs 17% 9% 11% 23% - 22% - 22% First Lady Margaret Kenyatta - - - 39% - 50% - 55% The Opposition - - - - - 16% 42% 18%
  23. 23. 23 Confidence Ratings: IEBC Trend Analysis (February 2013 – April 2015)
  24. 24. “Please tell me how much confidence you have in the IEBC…?” (Trend Analysis – Only shown for: “a lot of confidence” and “no confidence at all”) 24 62% 32% 30% 21% 16% 23% 23% 16%2% 22% 32% 25% 29% 31% 25% 28% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% February 2013 (n=5,971) June 2013 (n=2,000) November 2013 (n=2,060) February 2014 (n=2,031) May 2014 (n=2,059) September 2014 (n=2,021) November 2014 (n=2,005) April 2015 (n=1,964) A lot of Confidence No Confidence at all
  25. 25. 25 Policy Performance: Jubilee vs. Grand Coalition Govt
  26. 26. Jubilee vs. Grand Coalition Government Performance on 13 Policy Areas (By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions) 26Base: All Respondents (n=1,964) Jubilee: Policy Areas Better Worse % Difference Same Not Sure Economic growth 38% 48% -10% 13% 1% Cost of living 25% 63% -38% 12% 1% Education 52% 30% +22% 17% 0% Human rights 27% 44% -17% 26% 3% Corruption 14% 73% -59% 12% 1% Crime 13% 71% -58% 14% 2% Terrorism 10% 79% -69% 10% 2% Freedom to criticize the government 25% 44% -19% 27% 4% Wildlife protection 29% 34% -5% 30% 7% Land issues 20% 62% -42% 15% 2% Environmental conservation 31% 33% -2% 30% 5% Medical /Health Services 61% 24% +37% 15% 1% Respect for the constitution/rule of law 27% 37% -10% 30% 7% Total positive difference =59% Total negative difference =329%
  27. 27. For further information contact: Dr Tom Wolf Social Political Consultant tpwolf1944@gmail.com Victor Rateng Project Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe 27

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