CIMB Research — Developers’ Share Sell-down Overdone

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CIMB Research — Developers’ Share Sell-down Overdone

  1. 1. QUICK TAKES 20 July 2011 MALAYSIACIMB Research Report OVERWEIGHT MaintainedProperty SectorAn overdone hammering Terence Wong CFA +60(3) 20849689 - terence.wong@cimb.com Steep fall in share prices Sector leaders SP Setia and Mah Sing have been heavily sold down since last week on the back of The Edge’s report on the possibility of a change in housing loan calculations from gross to net pay. Although we did expect the news to rattle investors, we are taken aback by the speed and severity of the selloff. The selldown is excessive as the jitters even spilled over yesterday to construction companies with property development exposure. The report is yet to be confirmed and even if the measure is implemented, we believe it could be mild as the intention is to curb speculation, not hammer overall sentiment. Investors should continue accumulating property stocks on weakness. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT sector rating and an Outperform on all developers. Mah Sing remains our top pick and SP Setia our core holding. The news Share prices of property stocks have been on a downtrend since The Edge weekly carried a report that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) had issued a white paper to obtain feedback on the possibility of basing the calculation of household loans (mortgage and hire purchase) on net pay instead of gross pay. Mah Sing led the fall in share prices yesterday, which spilled over to construction companies with significant property exposure. Figure 1: Share price performance Share price Share price Price c hg Sha re price Share price YTD (RM) (RM) sinc e (RM) (RM) price 8-Jul 1 9-Jul Edge 3 0-Dec 19-Jul cha nge Property develope rs E&O 1 .55 1.43 -7.7% 1.18 1.43 21.2% Ma h Sin g 2 .60 2.22 -1 4.6% 1.84 2.22 20.7% SP Setia 4 .14 3.75 -9.4% 3.97 3.75 -5.5% UM Land 2 .01 1.96 -2.5% 1.75 1.96 12.0% UOA Dev 2 .22 2.09 -5.9% NA 2.09 NA Average -8.0% 12.1% KLPRP Index 1,096 .17 1036 .46 -5.4% 1 ,020.86 1 036.46 1.5% Contractors Gamu da 3 .81 3.55 -6.8% 3.82 3.55 -7.1% IJM Corp 6 .46 6.19 -4.2% 6.23 6.19 -0.6% MRCB 2 .32 2.20 -5.2% 1.99 2.20 10.6% Mu hib bah 1 .36 1.16 -1 4.7% 1.50 1.16 -22.7% Mu dajaya 3 .40 3.26 -4.1% 3.20 3.26 1.9% WCT 3 .12 2.97 -4.8% 3.14 2.97 -5.4% Average -6.6% -3.9% KLCON Inde x 284 .71 270 .46 -5.0% 285.01 270.46 -5.1% KLCI 1,594 .74 1555 .64 -2.5% 1 ,518.91 1 555.64 2.4% Source: CIMB estimates, companies Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
  2. 2. Comments Although we expected share prices to fall on reports of possible measures to curb excessive property speculation (see Property sector report dated 11 Jul for details), we are surprised by the speed and severity of the selldown. We are also surprised that the jitters have spilled over to construction companies which have much less exposure to property than the pure developers. As we stated early last week, the proposal by BNM to change the calculation from gross pay to net pay is a negative surprise and would be negative for the property sector in the short term. But we are not surprised that the central bank is concerned about an overheating of the property market and excessive consumer debt. There has also been talk of the possibility of the proposal of a higher real property gains tax (RPGT) or a loans-to-value (LTV) cap for commercial property in the 2012 Budget which will be tabled on 7 Oct. We view the change to net pay in the calculation of housing loan limit as merely another way to curb property speculation. Our views have not changed since last week. We think that any measures to curb domestic speculation are likely to have only a short-lived impact on physical property sales, as was the case when a flat 5% RPGT was levied in Oct 2009 and an LTV ratio of 70% was imposed on the 3rd property purchase in Nov 2010. In both cases, the impact on the real property market was a wait-and-see attitude by buyers for 2-3 months before they rushed back into the market when they realised that house prices were firm and still rising. Even if we assume the worst-case scenario where a change in the calculation results in a 26% fall in affordability, in line with the maximum personal tax rate, the affordability ratio is still very healthy (see Figure 2).Figure 2: Average affordability index (mortgage payment/household income) Affordability index based on gross pay Affordability index based on net pay 0.4500 0.4500 0.4000 0.4000 0.3500 0.3500 0.3000 0.3000 0.2500 0.2500 0.2000 0.2000 0.1500 0.1500 0.1000 0.1000 0.0500 0.0500 0.0000 0.0000 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008Source: BNM, CIMB Research Also, we believe that the government will be careful not to implement measures that would have too negative an impact on the property sector as 1) the authorities want to encourage home ownership and restrictions would have the opposite effect, 2) the government hopes to unlock the value of its idle land in the Klang Valley and measures that would hurt the sector could result in lower bids for the land, and 3) the performance of the property sector affects other key sectors of the economy and property restrictions in the run-up to general elections may not be popular. [ 2 ]
  3. 3. Valuation and recommendationWe continue to hold the view that there is no widespread property bubble and that thestrong appreciation of properties in certain locations is largely backed byfundamentals. The price upsurge for landed property in the Klang Valley over the past1-2 years by and large reflects the scarcity of land. The growth of new residentialproperty supply has been on a decline and last year’s 2.2% growth rate was theslowest on record. Part of the reason for lower supply growth is the trickle of supplyfrom low-medium cost specialists such as Talam (TA MK, Not Rated) and LBS Bina(LBS MK, Not Rated) as well as the dominance of developers such as SP Setia andMah Sing which have shifted their focus to higher-end properties. In fact, the proposedcooling measures could lead to fewer new launches and slower supply growth, whichcould result in even high property prices over the longer term.Figure 3: Residential property supply growth 20.0% 18.0% KL Selangor Johor Penang 16.0% Malaysia Klang Valley 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: PMR, CIMB ResearchWe view the weakness in share prices of both property developers and constructioncompanies as a buying opportunity. This is not the first time that concerns overgovernment measures have exerted pressure on share prices. After the cooling downmeasures at end-2009 and end-2010, the market re-rated property stocks when itrealised that the impact on the real property market was temporary and mild. Whatsurprised us this time around is not just the immediate and intense reaction but alsothe knock-on effects on the share prices of contractors. This could be a sign of jittersamong investors, who may have become more skittish after the Bersih street rally on9 Jul.Our view is that it is more important to analyse the health of the residential propertymarket and to gauge buyer sentiment and confidence. The residential propertymarket, in our view, remains strong, affordability is near its all-time best and we expectboth home prices and transaction volumes to remain robust in 2011/12 barring anynegative external shocks. Historically, residential property prices have almost alwaysbeen on an uptrend, falling only after recessions or a crisis. We are not predicting arecession or a crisis. As for buyer sentiment and confidence, it will certainly be dulledby measures to dampen speculation. However, it is too early to gauge the likely effectas our checks with banks were not conclusive given the lack of details on the likelycalculations for net pay. Also, we think the final measures are likely to be mild in orderto avoid overkill. [ 3 ]
  4. 4. Figure 4: Discount to RNAV and NTA Share price RNAV/shr (Discount)/ NTA/shr (Discount)/ (RM) (RM) Premium (RM) Premium E&O 1.44 2.82 -48.9% 1.26 14.3% Mah Sing 2.35 2.52 -6.7% 1.02 130.4% SP Setia 3.81 4.13 -7.7% 1.43 166.1% UM Land 1.97 4.21 -53.2% 3.55 -44.5% UOA Dev 2.08 2.62 -20.6% 1.19 74.8% Average -27.4% 68.2% Source: CIMB estimates, companies Overall, we remain bullish on the residential property sector and maintain our OVERWEIGHT sector rating. The selldown has made property stocks even more attractive both on P/E and discount to RNAV basis. On average, property developers are now trading at a 27% discount to RNAV and offer investors 43% upside to our target prices. We have Outperform recommendations for all property developers. Mah Sing remains our top pick in the sector. Yesterday’s sharp fall has taken its CY12 P/E to only 8.7x. SP Setia’s share price was sold down last week and is now trading at an 8% discount to its fully diluted RNAV. Sector bellwethers typically trade at 40-50% premium over RNAV during a market upcycle.Figure 5: Recommendation, target price and basis Recommendation Target basis Share price Target price Upside (RM) (RM) to targetE&O Outperform 30% discount to RNAV 1.43 1.96 37%Mah Sing Outperform Target market P/E of 14.5x 2.22 3.30 49%SP Setia Outperform 30% premium over RNAV 3.75 5.37 43%UM Land Outperform 40% discount to RNAV 1.96 2.53 29%UOA Dev. Outperform 10% discount to target market P/E 2.09 3.25 56%Sector Overweight 43%Source: CIMB estimates, companies [ 4 ]
  5. 5. Figure 6: Regional comparisons Target Core P/BV Div RNAV Disc/ BB Price price Mkt cap P/E (x) (x) yield (%) Prem. To ticker Recom. (Local) (Local) (US$ m) CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2011 CY2011 RNAVSingaporeBukit Sembawang BS SP O 4.50 5.86 958 7.6 8.1 1.1 2.6 8.37 -46%CapitaLand CAPL SP O 2.91 3.62 10,221 16.4 15.0 0.9 2.1 4.76 -39%CMA CMA SP N 1.45 1.70 4,635 22.4 21.1 0.9 1.4 2.13 -32%City Devt CIT SP U 10.14 10.86 7,586 16.8 13.5 1.4 1.2 13.10 -23%F&N FNN SP O 5.76 7.34 6,672 14.0 11.5 1.2 4.6 8.15 -29%Ho Bee HOBEE SP O 1.43 1.87 853 8.5 9.5 0.7 1.4 2.50 -43%Keppel Land KPLD SP O 3.62 4.73 4,437 15.4 13.9 1.2 2.6 5.88 -38%OUE OUE SP O 2.89 3.93 2,334 21.3 17.3 0.9 2.4 4.63 -38%Singland SL SP O 6.95 10.22 2,358 15.7 15.2 0.7 2.9 12.02 -42%UOL UOL SP N 4.95 5.55 3,127 9.7 13.3 0.8 2.5 6.68 -26%Wheelock WP SP O 1.84 2.39 1,811 8.4 10.6 0.7 3.3 2.66 -31%Wing Tai WINGT SP O 1.46 1.93 950 5.8 6.8 0.6 3.5 2.57 -43%Simple average 13.5 13.0 0.9 2.5 -36%Hong Kong/ChinaAgile 3383 HK O 11.94 16.58 5,323 7.8 7.0 1.6 3.1 20.7 -42%China Overseas Land 688 HK O 16.06 19.18 16,837 10.5 9.3 2.0 1.9 19.2 -16%China Resources 1109 HK N 14.60 15.34 10,091 14.3 11.0 1.6 2.2 21.9 -33%Evergrande 3333 HK O 6.02 7.64 11,592 9.5 6.8 2.9 3.2 9.5 -37%R&F 2777 HK U 9.96 8.89 4,120 6.3 6.1 1.2 4.4 18.5 -46%KWG 1813 HK O 5.32 8.10 1,976 6.9 5.0 1.0 3.6 11.6 -54%Poly HK 119 HK N 5.34 6.00 2,472 11.1 8.6 0.8 2.7 13.2 -60%SOHO 410 HK O 7.22 8.60 4,809 24.9 7.5 1.8 4.3 - NAShimao Property 813 HK N 10.00 11.10 4,556 7.1 6.1 1.0 4.5 20.2 -51%Sino-Ocean 3377 HK N 4.07 4.60 2,961 7.2 5.6 0.6 3.5 10.3 -61%Simple average 10.5 7.3 1.4 3.4 -44%IndonesiaAlam Sutera ASRI IJ O 380.00 460.00 794 14.0 9.9 2.6 1.9 685.4 -45%Bakrieland ELTY IJ U 162.00 150.00 756 63.5 34.6 0.8 - 326.7 -50%BSD BSDE IJ O 960.00 1,250.00 1,965 22.1 16.6 2.4 0.5 1,547.1 -38%Ciputra CTRA IJ O 485.00 505.00 860 24.4 15.7 1.4 1.2 845.8 -43%Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ N 690.00 769.93 1,862 24.3 22.1 1.7 - 1,061.8 -35%Summarecon SMRA IJ N 1,090.00 1,300.00 876 25.1 18.8 3.2 0.9 1,855.2 -41%Simple average 28.9 19.6 2.0 0.8 -42%MalaysiaE&O EAST MK O 1.44 1.98 436 20.5 12.9 1.1 2.4 2.8 -49%KLCC Property KLCC MK U 3.30 3.03 1,025 15.0 13.2 0.5 4.5 5.2 -37%Mah Sing MSGB MK O 2.22 3.30 614 12.3 9.9 1.8 4.1 2.6 -13%SP Setia SPSB MK O 3.75 5.37 2,217 23.7 19.1 2.0 4.0 4.2 -10%UOAD UOAD MK O 2.09 3.25 831 10.1 8.4 1.5 5.4 2.7 -23%Simple average 16.7 12.6 1.6 4.0 (0.2)ThailandAsian Property AP TB O 5.75 6.90 542 8.1 6.6 1.4 4.9 - NALPN LPN TB O 11.00 13.80 543 7.8 6.8 2.2 6.4 - NALand And Houses LH TB TB 6.85 8.40 2,297 26.9 20.7 2.4 6.4 - NAPruksa Real Estate PS TB O 20.30 27.10 1,499 10.2 8.2 2.4 3.4 - NAQuality Houses QH TB U 1.86 2.11 527 11.2 9.0 1.1 6.2 - NASPALI SPALI TB O 12.20 16.80 700 6.7 5.8 1.8 6.6 - NASimple average 11.8 9.5 1.9 5.7 -Source: Company, CIMB estimates [ 5 ]
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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #1 * STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONSOUTPERFORM: The stocks total return is expected to exceed a relevant OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe, isbenchmarks total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.NEUTRAL: The stocks total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe, isbenchmarks total return. expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.UNDERPERFORM: The stocks total return is expected to be below a relevant UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,benchmarks total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.TRADING BUY: The stocks total return is expected to exceed a relevant TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe, isbenchmarks total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.TRADING SELL: The stocks total return is expected to be below a relevant TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,benchmarks total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months. * This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M) [ 7 ]
  8. 8. RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #2 ** STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONSOUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 12 months.NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe, has12 months. either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% (or better) or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15%; both over the next 12 months.UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,next 12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 12 months.TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 3 months.TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,3 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 3 months. ** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons. [ 8 ]

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