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India pulses supply & demand outlook mr. sudhakar tomar


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India Pulses Supply & Demand Outlook by Mr. Sudhakar Tomar, MD at Hakan Agro DMCC at the T

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India pulses supply & demand outlook mr. sudhakar tomar

  1. 1. IPGA PULSES CONCLAVE 19th – 21st February, 2014, Goa , India INDIA PULSES SUPPLY & DEMAND OUTLOOK Presented by Sudhakar TOMAR Managing Director Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 1
  2. 2. Area of Interest Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 2
  3. 3. India’s Growing Food Needs (1991 = 100) As average age and incomes rise food needs will grow Courtesy -
  4. 4. Know your INDIA         Covers population of 1. 22 Billion and area of 3.28 million sq km roughly the size of 1/3rd of Canada Economy 4.7 Trillion ( 3rd by PPP) 18% of world’s population ( > 60% under 30 ) 2 % of world’s land (60% agricultural /30% irrigated) less than 3.5% of world renewable fresh water (Canada has 7% ) Average per capita income : US$ 3851.00 (140th by PPP) Food Import bill US$ 25 Billion ( 5% of total imports) Employs >60% of work force in small scale agriculture Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 4
  5. 5. India – The fight between Nutrition Vs Calories Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 5
  6. 6. Know your INDIA  Pulses area : 25-27 Million Hectares – 87% Rainfed with average annual rainfall of 1000 mm ( almost double of AAP of Saskatchewan)  Two Crop Cycles Rabi ( Winter Crop) – Harvesting - March/April ( 65%)  Major Crops – Chickpea , Lentil , Pea  Major Growers – M.P (33 %) UP (19% ) , AP (11%) ( Maharashtra ( 9%) Kharif (Monsoon Season) – Harvesting Sept /October ( 35%)  Major Crops : Mung Beans ,Pigeon Peas ,Black Matpe  Major Growers : Maharashtra (24%) Rajsthan (15%), UP(13%) , MP (10%) Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 6
  7. 7. Global Pulses Calendar 7
  8. 8. Pulses growing regions in India
  9. 9. Pulses value chain
  10. 10. How does India consume Pulses ? Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 10
  11. 11. How does India consume Pulses ? Versatile Flour –Purees – Sauces – Salted & Sweet Snacks – Drinks – Breads – Cakes Extremely Versatile & Diversified usage : 11000 + Dishes Google search yields >2.2 Million results Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 11
  12. 12. From CANADA to KOLKATA Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 12
  13. 13. Area – Yields - Production Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 13
  14. 14. Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 14
  15. 15. Pulses | Imports in first 9 months of 2013-14 season ( 000 MTs)
  16. 16. Pulses – Second Advance Estimate – Released on Valentines Day 14/02/2014
  17. 17. Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 17
  18. 18. INDIA – Supply & Demand Pulses / India Source : Stat Publishing Canada Sudhakar Tomar 18
  19. 19. The great Indian Pulses Matrix India is the largest exporter of Kabuli Chickpeas @ 175,000 MTs Sudhakar Tomar 19 Pulses / India
  20. 20. The ever Devaluing Indian Rupee ( INR) CA$ 18% AU$ 30% Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 20
  21. 21. Pulses | How much is too much ?
  22. 22. * The Great Indian Pulses Plan * To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030 Masters of the game    Indian Institute of Agricultural Research (ICAR) Indian Institute of Pulses Research (IIPR) All India Coordinated Research Projects (AICRPs) on Chickpeas, Pigeonpeas, Lentils & Beans How will they do it ?        Crop Development Schemes National Food Security Mission - Pulses (NFSM-Pulses), Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) - National Agri Development Scheme Macro Management of Agriculture (MMA), Integrated Scheme of Oilseeds, Pulses, Oil Palm & Maize (ISOPOM) ‘Accelerated Pulses Production Program (A3P)’ 2013-2014 Legume Cultivation Scheme for Gram Mono Crop Areas ( Budget 2013-2014 US$ 60 Million) Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 22
  23. 23. India – Projected Pulse requirements 20122030 Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 23
  24. 24. * The Great Indian Pulses Plan * To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030 How really ? Quote…To meet the projected requirement for 1.68 Billion Indians the productivity needs to uplift at 1361 kg per ha and about 3.million ha additional area has to be brought under pulses besides reducing the post-harvest losses.Unquote 1. Increasing government procurement prices ( MSP) in reality 2. Bringing additional 3-5 Million Hectares under Pulses cultivation 3. Improving yield from 700 Kg/Ha to 1361 Kg/Ha  / India Pulses……… Sudhakar Tomar 24
  25. 25.             Estimating Supply & Demand Pulses in India  DISCLAIMER WARNING
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  26. 26. How do we estimate Supply & Demand numbers for Pulses in India Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 26
  27. 27. Domestic Retail Prices (Jan 2013-2014) Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 27
  28. 28. Price Outlook Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 28
  29. 29. Price Outlook Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 29
  30. 30. Price Outlook Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 30
  31. 31. Emerging Trends 1. Farmers – globally- will not grow pulses unless they can make as much or more money than growing other crops –Battle for Acres will keep prices volatile 2. South Asian consumers will not buy more pulses unless they are as cheap or cheaper than other foods (or they become Fashionable / Desirable) As a result, all crops will follow same price pattern 3. Developing countries will improve average yields & reduce losses at farm and in logistics & storage chain 31
  32. 32. Emerging Trends 2 5. Changing ownership……….      Glencore + Viterra + ABB Cargill + AWB AGT + Australian Milling Group + various Legumex-Walker and so on Archer Daniels Midland $2.3 billion bid for Graincorp 6. Global supply chain getting shorter ( Example : India - 18 Large Exporters to India run their own Origination & Distribution in India ) 7. Intense Competition for market share 32
  33. 33. Emerging Trends 3 7. New Competitors…….  Ukraine, Russia other CIS countries  Emergence of North and East Africa (Ethiopia, Tanzania) = still emergent – but catching up fast. 8. Changing Markets……  Growing Indian middle class demanding quality  Dramatic changes in China  Health and Nutrition – New Usage of Pulses – pulses as quality and healthy Ingredient to food industry seems the new Mantra 33 = Changed demand patterns
  34. 34. AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION So what is in it for me ? Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar what 34
  35. 35. AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 35
  36. 36. Acknowledgements ① ② ③ ④ ⑤ ⑥ ⑦ ⑧ ⑨ ⑩ 11 12 CGIAR/ICARDA Pulse Canada / Gordon Bacon Commodity India / Foretell USDA BRIAN CLANCEY / STATPUB FAOSTAT /FAO WFP CICILS-IPTIC / Gavin Gibson The Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Department of Agriculture, Government of India, New Delhi Retail Price Section, Directorate of Economics & Statistics,Ministry of Agriculture Government of India, New Delhi. P K Joshi, Devesh Roy and P Kumar, K Inbasekar, R Chanda, A Negi, G Tripathi, V Sonkar, N Datta, B Mishra and P Parthasarty Rao of International Food Policy Research Institute Glencore India / Pravin Dongre / Saurabh Bhartia / Anurag Tulshan / Dharmendra Vijaywargi / Anand Mandan / Sandip Burman Ray / Shahwar Khan 36
  37. 37. Thank you very much HAKAN AGRO DMCC 34th Floor , Tower BB2 Mazaya Business Avenue Jumeirah Lakes Towers P O Box 31489 Dubai ( UAE) Email : Website : Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 37