Trends in World Pulses Market

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Brian Clancey from STATPUB.com shares Global Pulses Import - Export data in this insightful presentation. Pulses production, demand, trends in import-export and future outlook as presented at India Pulses & Grains Associaiton's 'Global Pulses Conclave 2012.

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  • Pulses have less competitive with other crops
  • Pulses have less competitive with other crops
  • Pulses have less competitive with other crops
  • Pulses have less competitive with other crops
  • Pulses have less competitive with other crops
  • Trends in World Pulses Market

    1. 1. Global Pulses Conclave 2012 BRIAN CLANCEY WWW.STATPUB.COM
    2. 2. Meeting Future Food Needs • World population growth may slow from 1% to 0.5% by 2050 • Average net field crop output needs to rise at least 1% per year through 2050 • Ethanol from grain may be unsustainable www.statpub.com
    3. 3. Meeting Future Food Needs (1991 = 100) Food supply needs to grow over 1% per year www.statpub.com
    4. 4. 0.5% Annual Yield Increase (kilograms per person per year) Food shortages and very high prices www.statpub.com
    5. 5. Trend Growth in Average Yield (kilograms per person per year) Periods of tight supply, high prices www.statpub.com
    6. 6. Global Crop Production Outlook • Pulses are a minor crop the world’s perspective • Canada’s pulse breeders think they can add an average 1% per year to yield with new varieties • Pulses do not get same attention from plant breeders as rice, soybeans, or corn • Long term yield gains may be smaller than 1% www.statpub.com
    7. 7. Trend Growth in Field Crops (million metric tons) www.statpub.com
    8. 8. Global Pulse Production Ranges (million metric tons) www.statpub.com
    9. 9. Global Pulse Output Trend (million metric tons) www.statpub.com
    10. 10. Global Pulse Usage Ranges (kilograms per person) Per capita pulse usage is trending lower www.statpub.com
    11. 11. Global Pulse Usage Trend (kilograms per person - cumulative) www.statpub.com
    12. 12. Medium Term Outlook • Pulse production will rise in 2012 • Export prices should trend lower through 2014 • Easing prices may lead to lower pulse area in 2015 and 2016 • Export prices should start firming by 2016 www.statpub.com
    13. 13. World Pulse Forecast (million metric tons) www.statpub.com
    14. 14. Field Pea 2012 Outlook • Canadian acreage will be up because of good movement and strong prices • U.S. acreage will rise as farmers bring flooded land back into production • France’s acreage will fall because the feed pea subsidy has been removed • Prices should be lower on average www.statpub.com
    15. 15. World Dry Pea Forecast (million metric tons) www.statpub.com
    16. 16. World Field Pea Production (metric tons) 5-Year 2011 2012 287,788 301,000 311,900 3,084,720 2,115,600 2,786,000 United States 662,000 255,000 650,000 France 754,109 676,000 728,747 Ukraine 464,340 365,300 323,600 Other 4,719,553 4,738,276 4,709,787 World 9,972,511 8,451,176 9,510,035 Australia Canada The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11 www.statpub.com
    17. 17. Canada Pea Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2011-12 2012-13 2,923,000 2,115,600 2,786,000 444,000 535,000 210,000 Stocks 3,399,000 2,669,200 3,014,800 Exports 2,389,000 2,115,000 2,296,000 All Domestic 709,000 344,200 514,800 Ending Stocks 301,000 200,000 250,000 9.7 % 8.1 % 9.1 % $294 $390 $275 - $350 Production Carry In Stocks to Use FOB Price The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11 www.statpub.com
    18. 18. Yellow Pea Price Comparison (U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port) www.statpub.com
    19. 19. Lentil 2012 Outlook • Canadian acreage will drop because of poor prices • U.S. acreage will rise as farmers bring flooded land back into production • Prices should be lower on average for green lentils but unchanged to firmer for red www.statpub.com
    20. 20. World Lentil Forecast (million metric tons) www.statpub.com
    21. 21. World Lentil Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average Australia 2011 2012 161,847 306,000 307,000 1,181,917 1,947,100 1,333,000 United States 217,046 392,679 346,000 Turkey 433,576 447,400 402,000 Other 1,581,817 1,129,010 1,543,808 World 3,576,202 4,222,189 3,931,808 Canada The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11 www.statpub.com
    22. 22. Canada Lentil Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2011-12 2012-13 1,182,000 1,531,900 1,174,000 176,000 750,000 560,000 1,366,000 2,295,200 1,741,000 Exports 967,000 1,191,000 1,228,000 All Domestic 167,000 445,200 222,000 Ending Stocks 232,000 560,000 320,000 Stocks to Use 20.5 % 32.3 % 22.5 % Laird FOB Price $816 $890 $675 - $850 Red FOB Price $763 $639 $625 - $700 Production Carry In Stocks The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11 www.statpub.com
    23. 23. Lentil Price Comparison (U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port) www.statpub.com
    24. 24. Dry Bean 2012 Outlook • N. American will jump in response to bullish local markets this season • Argentina will plant more in response to problems with Brazil’s harvest • World prices may be unchanged to slightly easier next season www.statpub.com
    25. 25. World Dry Bean Forecast (million metric tons) www.statpub.com
    26. 26. World Dry Bean Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average 2011 2012 China 1,540,000 1,460,000 1,520,000 Argentina 3,360,000 320,000 330,000 Myanmar 4,170,000 3,890,000 4,240,000 North America 2,590,000 1,640,000 2,620,000 Other 9,760,000 12,240,000 11,980,000 World 21,420,000 19,550,000 20,690,000 The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11 www.statpub.com
    27. 27. Edible Bean Price Comparison (U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port) www.statpub.com
    28. 28. Chickpea 2012 Outlook • Mexican drought limited acreage expansion this year • India’s desi crop is officially lower than last year while kabuli may end up higher • Kabuli prices may be lower on average in coming months www.statpub.com
    29. 29. World Chickpea Forecast (million metric tons) www.statpub.com
    30. 30. World Chickpea Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average 2011 2012 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 India 320,000 390,000 400,000 Turkey 480,000 400,000 370,000 Mexico 150,000 40,000 80,000 1,950,000 1,830,000 1,850,000 11,280,000 11,280,000 11,440,000 Kabuli Other All Kabuli Desi The 5-year average covers 2005-06 to 2010-11 www.statpub.com
    31. 31. Chickpea Price Comparison (U.S. $ per MT FOB Origin Port) www.statpub.com
    32. 32. Factors Driving Prices • Competition for acres and consumer demand • U.S. biofuel policy • India’s population will grow faster than world average through 2050 • China’s population will peak in 15 years www.statpub.com
    33. 33. Battle For Acres • Farmers will not grow pulses unless they can make as much or more money than growing other crops • Consumers will not buy more pulses unless they are as cheap or cheaper than other foods • As a result, all crops follow same price pattern www.statpub.com
    34. 34. Field Crop Index vs. Crude Oil (2002-2004 = 100) www.statpub.com
    35. 35. Shifting Population • World population growth will slow from 1% today to around 0.5% by 2050 • India’s population will grow faster than world average through 2050 • China’s population will peak in 15 years www.statpub.com
    36. 36. China’s Declining Food Needs (1991 = 100) Food needs will peak in 2020-30 as population peaks www.statpub.com
    37. 37. India’s Growing Food Needs (1991 = 100) As average age and incomes rise food needs will grow www.statpub.com
    38. 38. India Pulse Demand Trend (million metric tons) Usage could fluctuate 3 million MT per year www.statpub.com
    39. 39. Conclusion • Biofuel mandates may be unsustainable • Plant breeders need to increase average yields and handling system needs to reduce losses • Battle for acres will keep pulse prices relatively strong www.statpub.com

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