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Big Data
    Stupid Decisions
The Importance Of Measuring
What We Should Be Measuring


              Panos @Ipeirotis
Stern School of Business, New York University

 “A Computer Scientist in a Business School”
     http://behind-the-enemy-lines.com
Shopping for a camera
Multiple merchants sell the same camera
Consumers do not always buy the cheapest
Willoughby’s enjoys a 7.5% price premium (= $140)
Price Premium Percentages, Amazon.com
                                     Transaction price compared to competition
                         20000
                         18000
Number of Transactions




                         16000
                         14000
                         12000
                         10000
                         8000
                         6000
                         4000
                         2000
                            0
                             -100%                        0%      +30%           +100%
Customers care about reputation!
The price of Willoughby’s reputation : $140
                                    (*)




                                          (*) vs 17th street photo
What is reputation?


 Factors affecting pricing power


  Number of stars
  Number of past transactions
  …
  Text!


My reputation, Iago, my reputation!

            -Shakespeare, Othello
How text affects reputation?
The value of text
The value of text




   Misspellings…
good packaging       -0.56%
Positive? Negative?
Recommendation Letters:
 “He is a good student”
    “He works hard”


   Decision: Reject
AAA++++ seller       -2.93%
Positive? Negative?
People interpret things differently,
    according to the context
Lesson #1


Adapt to the environment

One size does not fit all!
Same idea, different focus:
How reviews (text) affect product sales?
Best camera!        -0.20%
Positive?  Negative?
Tell me something specific, you shill!
Positive ?   Negative?
“If this is the worst that can happen…”
What product features do customers want?
Point-and-Shoot: Lenses, zoom, …




                                              % Discussion




Zoom      Lenses   Megapixel   Battery Life
Point-and-Shoot: Lenses, zoom, …




                                             % Discussion
                                             Effect on Sales




Zoom    Lenses    Megapixel   Battery Life
Lesson #2



Not sufficient to know what people say

     Measure what people DO
Reviews, Grammar, and Hotel Bookings
Bad Grammar → Bad Sales
Zappos takes action!

 Examined and fixed grammar for
  millions of reviews on Zappos.com!

 Used Amazon Mechanical Turk,
  paying ~$0.10 per review

 Improved product sales!
But… is it ethical?

“Would you correct a friend’s tweet or
Facebook post?
…
Nitpick a colleague for using shorthand in
emails sent from his iPhone?
…
This level of social intrusion is almost
unthinkable.”
Experiment: Fixed 1000 reviews
 Emailed authors: “Do you approve of the changes?”
 Gift card for replying

 Result: 978 replies, not a single negative evaluation!

   “Thank you! I almost feel that I am ‘stoopid’ when I leave such reviews!”

        “Hey, the review is not updated online! When will it be fixed?”
Experiment: Fixed 1000 reviews
 Emailed readers: “Do you approve of the changes?”
   Version 1: Only new version posted
   Version 2: Disclaimer (“Review has been edited…”)
   Version 3: Disclaimer + mouseover to see old review


 Result: For version 3, unanimously positive replies!
“Can you do the same for YouTube comments?
   My eyes hurt every time that I read them”
Lesson #3


Check your gut instinct at the entrance


    Measure and then talk!
Lessons

1. Measure in context: one size does not fit all

2. Measure what people do, not what they say

                 3. Measure!


                Thank you!

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Big Data, Stupid Decisions / Strata Jumpstart 2011 / Panos Ipeirotis / http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXDFwphuwCs