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The land-climate interface

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Lou Verchot
Introduction to the Special Report on Climate Change and Land

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The land-climate interface

  1. 1. 1 Special Report on Climate Change and Land www.ipcc.ch/report/SRCCL Agricultural landscape between Ankara and Hattusha, Anatolia, Turkey (40°00' N – 33°35’ E) ©Yann Arthus-Bertrand | www.yannarthusbertrand.org | www.goodplanet.org 1 Louis Verchot International Center Tropical Agriculture Madrid, 5 December 2019 The Land–Climate Interface
  2. 2. 2 2 Table SPM1. Net anthropogenic emissions due to Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Use (AFOLU) and non-AFOLU (Panel 1) Direct Anthropogenic Indirect Gas Units Net anthropogenic emissions due to Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Non-AFOLU anthropogenic GHG emissions6 Total net anthropogenic emissions (AFOLU + non-AFOLU) by gas AFOLU as a % of total net anthropogenic emissions, by gas Natural response of land to human- induced environmental change7 Net land – atmosphere flux from all lands Panel 1: Contribution of AFOLU FOLU Agriculture Total A B C = A + B D E = C + D F = (C/E) *100 G A + G CO2 2 Gt CO2 y-1 5.2 ± 2.6 No data11 5.2 ± 2.6 33.9 ± 1.8 39.1 ± 3.2 13% -11.2 ± 2.6 -6.0 ± 3.7 CH4 3,8 Mt CH4 y-1 19.2 ± 5.8 141.6 ± 42.5 160.8 ± 43 201.3 ± 100.6 362 ± 109 Gt CO2e y-1 0.5 ± 0.2 4.0 ± 1.2 4.5 ± 1.2 5.6 ± 2.8 10.1 ± 3.1 44% N2O3,8 Mt N2O y-1 0.3 ± 0.1 8.3 ± 2.5 8.7 ± 2.5 2.0 ± 1.0 10.6 ± 2.7 Gt CO2e y-1 0.09 ± 0.03 2.2 ± 0.7 2.3 ± 0.7 0.5 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.7 81% Total (GHG) Gt CO2e y-1 5.8 ± 2.6 6.2 ± 1.4 12.0 ± 2.9 40.0 ± 3.4 52.0 ± 4.5 23%
  3. 3. 3 3 Direct Anthropogenic Indirect Gas Units Net anthropogenic emissions due to Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Non-AFOLU anthropogenic GHG emissions6 Total net anthropogenic emissions (AFOLU + non-AFOLU) by gas AFOLU as a % of total net anthropogenic emissions, by gas Natural response of land to human- induced environmental change7 Net land – atmosphere flux from all lands Panel 1: Contribution of AFOLU FOLU Agriculture Total A B C = A + B D E = C + D F = (C/E) *100 G A + G CO2 2 Gt CO2 y-1 5.2 ± 2.6 No data11 5.2 ± 2.6 33.9 ± 1.8 39.1 ± 3.2 13% -11.2 ± 2.6 -6.0 ± 3.7 CH4 3,8 Mt CH4 y-1 19.2 ± 5.8 141.6 ± 42.5 160.8 ± 43 201.3 ± 100.6 362 ± 109 Gt CO2e y-1 0.5 ± 0.2 4.0 ± 1.2 4.5 ± 1.2 5.6 ± 2.8 10.1 ± 3.1 44% N2O3,8 Mt N2O y-1 0.3 ± 0.1 8.3 ± 2.5 8.7 ± 2.5 2.0 ± 1.0 10.6 ± 2.7 Gt CO2e y-1 0.09 ± 0.03 2.2 ± 0.7 2.3 ± 0.7 0.5 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.7 81% Total (GHG) Gt CO2e y-1 5.8±2.6 6.2 ± 1.4 12.0±2.9 40.0 ± 3.4 52.0 ± 4.5 23% Table SPM1. Net anthropogenic emissions due to Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Use (AFOLU) and non-AFOLU (Panel 1)
  4. 4. 4 4 Direct Anthropogenic Indirect Gas Units Net anthropogenic emissions due to Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Non-AFOLU anthropogenic GHG emissions6 Total net anthropogenic emissions (AFOLU + non-AFOLU) by gas AFOLU as a % of total net anthropogenic emissions, by gas Natural response of land to human- induced environmental change7 Net land – atmosphere flux from all lands Panel 1: Contribution of AFOLU FOLU Agriculture Total A B C = A + B D E = C + D F = (C/E) *100 G A + G CO2 2 Gt CO2 y-1 5.2 ± 2.6 No data11 5.2 ± 2.6 33.9 ± 1.8 39.1 ± 3.2 13% -11.2 ± 2.6 -6.0 ± 3.7 CH4 3,8 Mt CH4 y-1 19.2 ± 5.8 141.6 ± 42.5 160.8 ± 43 201.3 ± 100.6 362 ± 109 Gt CO2e y-1 0.5 ± 0.2 4.0 ± 1.2 4.5 ± 1.2 5.6 ± 2.8 10.1 ± 3.1 44% N2O3,8 Mt N2O y-1 0.3 ± 0.1 8.3 ± 2.5 8.7 ± 2.5 2.0 ± 1.0 10.6 ± 2.7 Gt CO2e y-1 0.09 ± 0.03 2.2 ± 0.7 2.3 ± 0.7 0.5 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.7 81% Total (GHG) Gt CO2e y-1 5.8 ± 2.6 6.2 ± 1.4 12.0 ± 2.9 40.0 ± 3.4 52.0 ± 4.5 23% Table SPM1. Net anthropogenic emissions due to Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Use (AFOLU) and non-AFOLU (Panel 1)
  5. 5. 5 5 Direct Anthropogenic Indirect Gas Units Net anthropogenic emissions due to Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Non-AFOLU anthropogenic GHG emissions6 Total net anthropogenic emissions (AFOLU + non-AFOLU) by gas AFOLU as a % of total net anthropogenic emissions, by gas Natural response of land to human- induced environmental change7 Net land – atmosphere flux from all lands Panel 1: Contribution of AFOLU FOLU Agriculture Total A B C = A + B D E = C + D F = (C/E) *100 G A + G CO2 2 Gt CO2 y-1 5.2± 2.6 No data11 5.2 ± 2.6 33.9 ± 1.8 39.1 ± 3.2 13% -11.2 ± 2.6 -6.0 ± 3.7 CH4 3,8 Mt CH4 y-1 19.2 ± 5.8 141.6 ± 42.5 160.8 ± 43 201.3 ± 100.6 362 ± 109 Gt CO2e y-1 0.5 ± 0.2 4.0 ± 1.2 4.5 ± 1.2 5.6 ± 2.8 10.1 ± 3.1 44% N2O3,8 Mt N2O y-1 0.3 ± 0.1 8.3 ± 2.5 8.7 ± 2.5 2.0 ± 1.0 10.6 ± 2.7 Gt CO2e y-1 0.09 ± 0.03 2.2 ± 0.7 2.3 ± 0.7 0.5 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.7 81% Total (GHG) Gt CO2e y-1 5.8 ± 2.6 6.2 ± 1.4 12.0 ± 2.9 40.0 ± 3.4 52.0 ± 4.5 23% Table SPM1. Net anthropogenic emissions due to Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Use (AFOLU) and non-AFOLU (Panel 1)
  6. 6. 6 Methane accumulation in the atmosphere has increased over time, but with a pause between 1999 and 2006 13 C-CH4 (‰) -47.5 -47.4 -47.3 -47.2 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 CH4 (ppbv) 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
  7. 7. 77 7 Agriculture is responsible for 44% of global methane emissions
  8. 8. 8 8 N2O continues to increase almost linearly Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 N2O(ppbv) 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335
  9. 9. 99 9 Agriculture is responsible for 81% of nitrous oxide emissions
  10. 10. 10 10 Land use change decreases N2O fluxes in unfertilized situations and increases emissions in fertilized systems Time since conversion (years) 0 10 20 30 40 N2O(kgNha -1 y -1 ) 0 2 4 6 8 10 Forest Low cover forest Fertilized Unfertilized 0 10 20 30 40 0 2 4 6 Croplands Pastures
  11. 11. 11 Changes in mean annual surface air temperature (°C) in response to idealised large scale deforestation (circles) or forestation (crosses), estimated from a range of studies Temperature changes resulting from biophysical processes : albedo evapotranspiration, and roughness.
  12. 12. 12 FOR MORE INFORMATION: Website: http://ipcc.ch IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int WG III TSU: tsu@ipcc-wg3.ac.uk PRESENTER NAME Affiliation Email address Social media handle 12

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