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Sea Level Rise in the Pacific


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Mark Howden, Vice-Chair of the IPCC WGII

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Sea Level Rise in the Pacific

  1. 1. Sea level rise: an update Prof Mark Howden Vice Chair Working Group II Australian National University
  2. 2. Sweet et al. 2017 Regionally-variable trends in sea level rise
  3. 3. IPCC AR5 scenarios ‘Only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century’ IPCC 2013
  4. 4. T NASA Ongoing ice losses: Greenland and Antarctica
  5. 5. Sea level rise acceleration Chen et al. 2017 5% 25% Ocean thermal expansion Glaciers Terrestrial water Antarctica Greenland
  6. 6. NOAA 2017 Both lower and upper levels of SLR scenarios have increased
  7. 7. Impact of SLR affected by emissions: Suva
  8. 8. Increased risk of extreme sea level events Goodwin et al. 2017 • 10,000x means that a current once-a-century flooding level is reached every time at normal high tide
  9. 9. Longer term sea level rise: from Antarctica only IPCC 2013: NASA 2017 ‘It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue … for many centuries. The amount of longer term sea level rise depends on future emissions.’
  10. 10. Thankyou Prof Mark Howden ANU Climate Change Institute +61 2 6125 7266 Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II
  11. 11. Increasing impact in the near future Sweet et al. 2017