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Sea level rise


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Nathaniel Lee Bindoff, IPCC Author

Published in: Environment
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Sea level rise

  1. 1. © Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Sea level rise Nathaniel Bindoff 6 October 2017, Lautoka, Fiji
  2. 2. Multiple lines of robust evidence support the conclusion that many aspects of the climate system have changed. Warming in the climate system is unequivocal
  3. 3. Global mean sea level increased by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m between 1901 and 2010 1901-2010: 1.7 mm/yr 1993-2010: 3.2 mm/yr
  4. 4. Sea level rise of 0.52 to 0.98 m by 2100, under the high emissions scenario. Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century
  5. 5. In the well measured time period 1993-2010, global mean sea level is consistent with the sum of observed contributions (high confidence). Contribution to sea level rise in 1993-2010 Ocean warming: 38% Changes in glaciers: 28% Greenland ice sheet: 10% Antarctic ice sheet: 10% Land water storage 14% year TS Figure 3
  6. 6. Storm tides evaluated from stochastic cyclones Lautoka 1-in-200 year Fiji: Storm tides are largest on northwest coastlines of the Fiji Islands Samoa: Storm tides are more uniform around the coastlines of the Samoan Islands Source: McInnes et al, Glob. Planet. Change. (2014) Source: McInnes et al, Nat. Haz. (2015) Apia
  7. 7. Sealevel • Extraordinary that we can measure global sea-level • Sea-level is different to warming oceans – • it will continue to rise long after the earth’s temperature has stabilised • The Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are a big contributors global sea-level. • Key risk going into the future • Have we already made a decisions about the ice sheets?
  8. 8. © Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Further Information
  9. 9. Sea level rise will increase the frequency of extreme sea levels Planning Benchmark SLR Allowance Allowance Planning Benchmark Source: McInnes et al, AMOJ (2015)