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Carbon Dioxide Removal to reach net-zero and return from overshoot

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Knowledge gaps and research priorities

Carbon Dioxide Removal to reach net-zero and return from overshoot

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Carbon Dioxide Removal to reach
net-zero and return from overshoot:
knowledge gaps and research priorities
C O P 2 8 , 6 D e c 2 0 2 3
IPCC AR6 Approach to
Carbon Dioxide Removal
O L I V E R G E D E N
V i c e - C h a i r A R 7 W o r k i n g G r o u p I I I
L e a d A u t h o r A R 6 W G I I I & C W T A R 6 S y n t h e s i s R e p o r t
C O P 2 8 , 6 D e c 2 0 2 3
AR6 Definition of
Carbon Dioxide Removal
Anthropogenic activities removing carbon
dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and
durably storing it in geological, terrestrial, or
ocean reservoirs, or in products.
It includes existing and potential anthropogenic
enhancement of biological or geochemical CO2
sinks and direct air carbon dioxide capture and
storage (DACCS), but excludes natural CO2 uptake
not directly caused by human activities.
I P C C A R 6 , C R O S S - W G G L O S S A R Y
• No CDR chapters in WG I & III (nor in SR1.5 + SRCCL)
• Differentiation betw. outcome of practices and results on
systems level (CO2 removal vs. net-negative emissions)
• Taxonomy (& terminology) avoids nature-based vs.
(hybrid vs.) techological classification of CDR methods
• Strong terminology guidance for WG III (CDR, NETs,
methods/options, net-negative, net-zero CO2 or GHG)
• Techno-economic analysis of 12 CDR methods,
scenarios, but also feasibility assessment, cost &
potentials, (empirically oriented) governance & policies
• From „CDR: yes or no?“ to „which CDR methods, by
whom, by when, at which volumes and in which ways?“
• Global & national
pathways share basic
components
• (Modelled) residual
emissions mainly non-
CO2 GHGs from
agriculture, but also
CO2 from industry,
aviation and land-use
• ‚Gross/Gross‘
perspective more
insightful than ‚net only‘
I P C C A R 6 W G I I I , C H A P T E R 1 2 , C R O S S - C H A P T E R B O X 8 , F I G U R E 2
• No total CDR volumes
until 2100 (mainly due
to scenario database
reporting standards
and methodologies)
• Even if there were total
CDR volumes, it
wouldn‘t make much
sense to say „IPCC
shows we need x Gt of
CDR by 2050“
• Numbers depend on
contextual factors, incl.
assumptions on
discount rate & residual
emissions, and core
mitigation strategies
(IMPs, overshoot)
I P C C A R 6 W G I I I
T A B L E 3 . 5
& F I G U R E 1 2 . 3

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Carbon Dioxide Removal to reach net-zero and return from overshoot

  • 1. Carbon Dioxide Removal to reach net-zero and return from overshoot: knowledge gaps and research priorities C O P 2 8 , 6 D e c 2 0 2 3
  • 2. IPCC AR6 Approach to Carbon Dioxide Removal O L I V E R G E D E N V i c e - C h a i r A R 7 W o r k i n g G r o u p I I I L e a d A u t h o r A R 6 W G I I I & C W T A R 6 S y n t h e s i s R e p o r t C O P 2 8 , 6 D e c 2 0 2 3
  • 3. AR6 Definition of Carbon Dioxide Removal Anthropogenic activities removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and durably storing it in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. It includes existing and potential anthropogenic enhancement of biological or geochemical CO2 sinks and direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage (DACCS), but excludes natural CO2 uptake not directly caused by human activities. I P C C A R 6 , C R O S S - W G G L O S S A R Y
  • 4. • No CDR chapters in WG I & III (nor in SR1.5 + SRCCL) • Differentiation betw. outcome of practices and results on systems level (CO2 removal vs. net-negative emissions) • Taxonomy (& terminology) avoids nature-based vs. (hybrid vs.) techological classification of CDR methods • Strong terminology guidance for WG III (CDR, NETs, methods/options, net-negative, net-zero CO2 or GHG) • Techno-economic analysis of 12 CDR methods, scenarios, but also feasibility assessment, cost & potentials, (empirically oriented) governance & policies • From „CDR: yes or no?“ to „which CDR methods, by whom, by when, at which volumes and in which ways?“
  • 5. • Global & national pathways share basic components • (Modelled) residual emissions mainly non- CO2 GHGs from agriculture, but also CO2 from industry, aviation and land-use • ‚Gross/Gross‘ perspective more insightful than ‚net only‘ I P C C A R 6 W G I I I , C H A P T E R 1 2 , C R O S S - C H A P T E R B O X 8 , F I G U R E 2
  • 6. • No total CDR volumes until 2100 (mainly due to scenario database reporting standards and methodologies) • Even if there were total CDR volumes, it wouldn‘t make much sense to say „IPCC shows we need x Gt of CDR by 2050“ • Numbers depend on contextual factors, incl. assumptions on discount rate & residual emissions, and core mitigation strategies (IMPs, overshoot) I P C C A R 6 W G I I I T A B L E 3 . 5 & F I G U R E 1 2 . 3
  • 7. • Every ambitious (illustrative) mitigation pathway involves CDR • Volumes and sectoral composition of residual emissions & CDR differ across global IMPs • Net LULUCF values lowers volumes on both sides of zero line I P C C A R 6 W G I I I F I G U R E S P M . 5
  • 8. • AR WGI assesses CDR methods along several dimensions • Highlights biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects and feedbacks of CDR • Feedbacks determine effectiveness of CDR in drawing down CO2 from atmosphere I P C C A R 6 W G I , C H A P T E R 5 , F I G U R E 3 6
  • 9. • Taxonomy of CDR methods based on AR6 WG I, highlighting removal process & timescale of storage • Often several implementation options per CDR method • CCS and CCU can be part of CDR methods, with durable storage of CO2 from biomass or ambient air • No dichotomy beyond land vs. ocean-based I P C C A R 6 W G I I I , C H A P T E R 1 2 , C R O S S - C H A P T E R B O X 8 , F I G U R E 1
  • 10. IPCC AR6 WG III, Chapter 12, Table 12.6
  • 11. • Synthesis Report focus on overshoot: exceedance of 1.5°C in early 2030s and possible return by 2100 • Limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100 with limited overshoot requires net negative CO2 emissions • Drastically reducing net emissions 2019-2030 (GHG: 43%, CO2: 48%) not enough to avoid exceeding 1.5°C temporarily but only to limit overshoot (to ~0.1°C) I P C C A R 6 S Y R , F I G U R E 3 . 5
  • 12. Panelists (and their role in AR6) Kirsten Zickfeld, Lead Author (LA) SR1.5 and LA WG I Stephanie Roe, LA WG III and Contributing Author (CA) WG II Steve Smith, CA WG III Detlef van Vuuren, LA WG III and Member Core Writing Team Synthesis Report Chris Bataille, LA WG III

Editor's Notes

  1. Section Facilitators