Technology at Work 2013 - Global technology Trends - Professor Ian Philips, ARM Ltd

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Ian Philips is Principal Engineer at ARM Ltd of Cambridge, where his role is to nurture strategic technology and opportunities until their business value can be quantified.

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Technology at Work 2013 - Global technology Trends - Professor Ian Philips, ARM Ltd

  1. 1. Title: Technology Trends – Electronic Systems Abstract  The practical application of a couple of centuries of scientific study has brought huge advances to almost everything we value; but none more so than those touched by Electronic Systems whose power to transform and animate is truly phenomenal. Surely with such powerful magic at our fingertips anything is within our power: Mend climates, solve energy problems and cure societys ills?! Alas; our tricks are not magic, but the results of painstaking global endeavour, of immense scale, detail and precision. And whilst these technologies are evolving at a prodigious rate; they are only capable of achieving so-much at any given time. ... The consumer’s insatiable appetite spurs us endlessly on. Perceive the reality of Electronic Systems and we can capitalising the many and varied, business and economic opportunities they present ... as they deliver our 21st century. Context  Technology at Work 2013 (TAW2013). Waterfront Hall, Belfast. 19feb13  Keynote: 14:30-15:30 (45min, 15min Q&A)  Audience: About 200. Mixed academic and industrial experts; large and small companies; politicians and other. 1
  2. 2. 1v0Prof. Ian Phillips Principal Staff Eng’r, ARM Ltdian.phillips@arm.com Visiting Prof. at ...Contribution to Industry Award 2008 Technology at Work 2013 Waterfront Hall, Belfast 19feb13 2
  3. 3. Electronic Systems are Everywhere ...  Entertainment, Amusement, Social ...  Important but not Vital  Very Personal; so greatly valued 3
  4. 4. Electronic Systems are Everywhere ...  Security, Transport, Logistics, Financial, Energy, Trade, Communications, Health, Environment, Business ...  Vital: Personally, Environmentally and Economically  Largely Invisible; so are seldom personally valued! 4
  5. 5. Electronic Systems Will Define Our Future  We and our Economies, will Depend On Them 100%...  Time to Understand - where they come from!  Time to Understand - our Businesses Involved in them!Source: Adapted from Morgan Stanley, Nov 2009  Time to Minimise - our Vulnerability to Globalisation! 5
  6. 6. The Science That Lets Us to Do ... Electronics is the pinnacle of mankind’s ingenuity in the manipulation of matter ...  Enables us all to do such wonderful things!  Dependent on Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry  The measure of what humans can achieve by reusing the ingenuity of our predecessors ... “Standing on the shoulders of giants” (Isaac Newton) Though it is very-very clever ...  It is not Magic!  It is not nearly as Magical as the Nature that surrounds us! “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from Magic!” (A.C.Clarke) 6
  7. 7. What Engineers Do ... 1 ... Beyond most people’s 7 1: http://www.engineeringuk.com/
  8. 8. The Pre-Engineered World (2,500 BC - 800 AD.) World Stats ...  Population ~100K ->1M  Growth rate ~0.1%pa  Life expectancy 30-40yr ... Mission: Survive and Grow Technology ...  Low dry-stone walls  Wooden poles and sticks  Thatch, turf, plants, mud and hide  Timber split using wedges  Sharp stones for cutting ... 3,500yrs of: “If it was good enough for my father’s, father’s, father’s, ... father; its good enough for me! 8
  9. 9. Chronology of Science / Engineering Universe – 13.6Byr Earth – 4.5Byr Cro-Magnon Man (Us!) – 35,000 yr ago  ‘Developed’ out of Homo-Sapien (Wise Human) >100,000 yr  Mission: Survive Nature (1,000 generations) The Philosophers – 2,500-1,000 yr ago  Pythagoras, Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Archimedes, ...  Mission: Understanding Nature The Scientists – 1,000-500 yrs ago  Galileo, Descartes, (1000 ad)  Electricity - William Gilbert (1600ad)  Mission: Manipulation of Nature The Engineers – 260 yrs ago  Industrial Revolution (1750: 8 gen’n)  Mission: Exploitation of Nature  Year 0: Science Meets Exploitation... Economic (and Population) Explosion Thomas Telford’s Iron Bridge (1778), Ironbridge, UK 9
  10. 10. The Industrial Revolution (1750) Exploitation of Nature  Unleashing the Power of Science, by delivering it in ways that satisfied a Volume Need ... We now call this Business.  Emergence of the Consumer and personal Money  It began in the United Kingdom, then spread throughout Europe, North America, and eventually the world.  Major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, transportation, and technology  Mechanisation of the textile industries,  Development of iron-making techniques  Transportation expansion through canals, improved roads and railways.[5]  Steam power, water wheels and powered machinery  Profound effect on socio-economic and cultural conditions... For the first time in human history (35kyr), the living standards of the masses of ordinary people underwent sustained growth 10
  11. 11. Exploitation of the Atom Electronic Technology is ... ...The Most Exciting thing mankind has Ever created! Early Electronics The First Transistor (1947) Integrated Transistor ~70 yrs ... And it has all happened within the span of one life-time! 11
  12. 12. Moore’s Law ... Gordon Moore. Founder of Intel. (1965) 10nm XApproximate Process Geometry 100nm 1um Transistors/Chip (M) Transistor/PM (K) 10um 100um ITRS’99 ... x More Functionality on a Si Chip in 20 yrs! 12 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law
  13. 13. The Transistor Today... Modelled ‘views’ of a 30 x 30 nm transistor Asen Assenov a.asenov@elec.gla.ac.uk Atoms!  3,000 transistors sit side-by-side in the thickness of a bank-note!  A Few Hundred Billion on a chip! 1Mbyte  2x that in 18 months time !!!13
  14. 14. The Steel-Bound Obsidian iCon ...14
  15. 15. ... Cool Design at Many Levels ...15
  16. 16. There is an Inside!Down 1-Level: Modules iPhone 4s vibrator motor. rear-facing 5 MP camera with 720p video at 30 FPS, tap to focus feature, and LED flash. ... Stuff that doesn’t grow on trees! (ie: It also has to be Created) 16 http://www.ifixit.com
  17. 17. Inside the Modules...Down 1-Level: Modules The Control Board.17 http://www.ifixit.com
  18. 18. Inside The Control Board (a-side)Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies Visible Design-Team Members ...  Samsung (flash memory) - (ARM Partner)  Cirrus Logic (audio codec) - (ARM Partner)  AKM (Magnetic Sensor)  Texas Instruments (Touch Screen Controller and mobile DDR) - (ARM Partner) Invisible Design-Team Members ...  Software Tools, OS & Drivers, GSM Security; Graphics, Video and Sound ...  Manufacturing, Assembly, Test, Certification ... 18 http://www.ifixit.com
  19. 19. Inside The Control Board (b-side)Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies Visible Design-Team Members...  A4 Processor, specified by Apple, designed and manufactured by Samsung ...  The central unit that provides the iPhone 4 with its GP computing power.  Reported to contain ARM A8 600 MHz CPU (other ARM CPUs and IP)  ST-Micro (3 axis gyroscope) - (ARM Partner)  Broadcom (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS) - (ARM Partner)  Skyworks (GSM)  Triquint (GSM PA)  Infineon (GSM Transceiver) - (ARM Partner) GPS Bluetooth, EDR &FM 19 http://www.ifixit.com
  20. 20. The A4 SIP Package (Cross-section) Memory ‘Package’ 2 Memory DiesGlue Processor SOC Die 4-Layer Platform Package’Down 3-Levels: IC Packaging  The processor is the centre rectangle. The silver circles beneath it are solder balls.  Two rectangles above are RAM die, offset to make room for the wirebonds.  Putting the RAM close to the processor reduces latency, making RAM faster and cuts power.  Unknown Mfr (Memory)  Samsung (Processor)  Unknown (System-In-Package Technology) 20 http://www.ifixit.com
  21. 21. nVidea Tegra 3 Processor (Around 1B transistors)21
  22. 22. Businesses in Apple’s Global Life-Cycle ...  Apple identifies...  159 Tier-1 Suppliers ...  Thousands of Design Engineers  10’s of thousands of Engineers ... Globally  Hundreds more Tier-2/3 Not Listed  Including ARM ... The Child of a Global Network of Technology and Know-How Businesses22 http://www.apple.com/supplierresponsibility/
  23. 23. Making Money out of Tech. Knowledge 21c Businesses are (better be)  Selling ‘Stuff’ that People want; at a Price they can Afford  With Business Models that are (sufficiently) Cash +ve Business needs  End-Customers buy Functionality, not Technology  Commoditisation is undesirable (to business) New Products are  Design is a Cost/Risk to be Minimised  (New) Technology ...  Enables Product Options (Not all are good)  Can Increases Cost/Risk, more than the Return!  Competition, Suppliers and Investors are global  But so are the Opportunities ... ... You must embrace your Opportunities to be successful! 23
  24. 24. Doing Business In The Life-Cycle Company A, Product-X De- Design Integrate Qualify Reproduce Install Maintain Upgrade Commission Design Tools Tools Equipment Big Finance Equipment Equipment Equipment Equipment Training Technologies Know-How Equipment Know-How Know-How Know-How Know-How Education Prototypes Standards Know-How Standards Supply Supply Standards ICT FABs Procedures Components Methods Logistics Logistics Logistics Conferences Components ICT Out-Sourcing Supply Training Training Training Patents Know-How Methods JIT Logistics Know-How Methods Training Factory Auto’n Training Tool-Libraries Methods Models Software TQM Training Companies B & C Provide Their Valued Product(s) Research to Other Customers As Well (Efficiency of Reuse)... Methods Company-B, Product-J,K,L De- Design Integrate Qualify Reproduce Install Maintain Upgrade Commission ... Enabled By Globalisation: ICT, WTO, English Language, Containers and Int’l Contract Law Company-C, Product-M,N,O De- Design Integrate Qualify Reproduce Install Maintain Upgrade Commission ... IS servicing a Valued-Niche in many Global Life-Cycles24
  25. 25. The Internet of Things (IoT)... Communicating Electronic Systems - Everything Aware of Everything Else - Everything Aware of Context25 http://www.beechamresearch.com/
  26. 26. ... Layers of Invisible ‘Techy Stuff’! Trillions Billions Millions Thousands26 http://www.beechamresearch.com/
  27. 27. So What Does ARM Do? ARM designs “processor technology” that lies at the heart of advanced consumer products27 http://www.arm.com/
  28. 28. ARM – Architecture for the Digital World 150+ billion chips cumulative in 202040+billionchips to date 1998 2012 202028 http://www.arm.com/
  29. 29. The ARM RISC-Processor Core ADDR[31:0] Address Incrementer Scan Debug Address Register Incrementer Control P CFGBIGEND C CLK CLKEN PC Update WRITE Register Bank Instruction SIZE[1:0] Decoder Decode Stage nIRQ nFIQ A A B Instruction nRESET Multiplier B Decompression and ABORT L B U u u TRANS B s s PROT u Barrel Control LOCK s Shifter Logic CPnOPC CPnCPI Write Data Read Data CPA 32 Bit ALU CPB Register Register WDATA[31:0] RDATA[31:0]29 http://www.arm.com/
  30. 30. The ‘Lego-Brick’ Chip-Design Concept nVidea Tegra3 ARM ARM ARM ARM ARM ARM30
  31. 31. More and More Complex System ChipsToday, users require a pocket ‘Super-Computer’ ...  Silicon Technology Provides a few-Billion transistors ...  ARM’s Technology makes it Practical to utilise them ... • 10 Processors • 4 x A9 Processors (2x2): • 4 x MALI 400 Fragment Proc: • 1 x MALI 400 Vertex Proc. • 1 x MALI Video CoDec • Software Stacks, OS’s and Design Tools/ • ARM Technology gives chip/system designers ... • Improved Productivity • Improved TTM • Improved Quality/Certainty31 http://www.arm.com/
  32. 32. The Chip is the Core of the System ARM Technology drives efficient Electronic System solutions:  Software increasing system efficiency with optimized software solutions  Diverse components, including CPU and GPU processors designed for specific tasks  Interconnect System IP delivering coherency and the quality of service required for lowest memory bandwidth  Physical IP for a highly optimized processor implementation Backed by >900 Global Partners ...  >800 Licences  Millions of Developers 32 http://www.arm.com/
  33. 33. The World’s Favourite IP Provider 1990 - "A barn in Cambridge"  12 engineers, in Cambridge  No Revenue, No Patents  Cash from Apple & VLSI  Spin-out of Acorn UK ...  BBC Computers in Schools (1981)  Roots in Uo.Cambridge (c1975) ... A Dream to become the Global Standard for Embedded CPUs 2013 - "The worlds leading IP Product"  Powering >90% of the Smart Electronic Systems in the world  75% of all the devices connected to the Internet  8.7B CPUs shipped (2012): +20%pa, 40B total (>50x all PCs!)  FTSE 100 (MarCap £12.8B): Revenue ~£580M, PBT ~47%, R&D ~30% (2012)  Cambridge HQ: 25 offices/labs and 2,400 people ww (990 in the UK)  >95% revenue is foreign earnings33 http://www.arm.com/
  34. 34. Societies Challenges in the 21c Urbanisation (Smart Cities)  Food/Water Health (eHealth)  Ageing Society Transport  Sustainability Energy (Smart Grid)  Digital Inclusion Security  Economics Environment Electronic Systems will not ‘fix’ any of these Challenges in themselves, but their Technology will Enable all of them!... Electronic Systems Technologies are Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) 34
  35. 35. Expectations of Tomorrow’s ConsumerNatural, Intuitive User Interfaces Continuous ConnectivityUltra High Resolutions Displays Infinite Battery Life “Always On, Always Connected” 35
  36. 36. Conclusions: Electronic Systems Permeate our lives today ...  Visibly and Invisibly, they have enabled the improved services and exciting new products in our lives! (IT and ICT are included in this)  They are the Children of a Globalised Creative Industry ... And make a significant Direct and Indirect contribution to the UK Economy Further miniaturisation will take them to Ubiquity...  They will keep us Amused, Entertained, Healthy, Fed and Warm  They will enable us to do Business, and control Finance  They will be central to future plans for Climate, Transportation, Energy, Health, Security and Urbanisation  We and the Economy, will willingly become totally dependent on them ... They will be become Un-Noticed and could become Un-Valued! Have barely scratched the surface of their Potential ...  The UK has a thriving, but largely invisible, ES Business Community 1 ... Value and Nurture them; ES is an excellent business opportunity! 36 1: http://www.esco-report.com
  37. 37. Prof. Ian Phillips Principal Staff Eng’r, ARM Ltdian.phillips@arm.com Visiting Prof. at ... http://www.arm.com/ Thank YouContribution to Industry Award 2008 For Listening Presentation available at: http://www.slideshare.net/IanPhillips1/presentations 37

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