Invast Insights 2013 - A Closer Look At The Australian Banks

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In this Invast Insights report, we aired our side on the criticism that we got on our weekly market preview last October 28, 2013. There were updates on ANZ's expansion into Asia and other banks reporting their numbers. We also enumerated points to remember when investing in a bank. Lastly, we featured the article written by Invast's Director of Communication Ashley Jessen regarding the growth of social media in financial markets and how this move affected traders.

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Invast Insights 2013 - A Closer Look At The Australian Banks

  1. 1. Invast Insights Week Commencing November 4, 2013
  2. 2. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 This week we look at the following topics: 1.0 A look at the Australian banks 1.1 ANZ and NAB worlds apart 1.2 How we think about banks 2.0 Technical analysis to filter market noise 3.0 Understanding Beta in Forex markets 4.0 Social media & trading 5.0 Melbourne Cup tip 6.0 Weekly economic calendar
  3. 3. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278
  4. 4. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 1.0 A look at the Australian banks On Monday 28 October 2013 we published our weekly market preview on the market and spoke specifically on the upcoming Australian banking results. We have been criticised for being too bearish on the banks previously but our view is on core earnings principals and fundamentals of banking. It’s not just the earnings number that matters, it’s the quality behind it. Banks like insurance companies and casinos are in the business of pricing risk. Recent history, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, has shown that a whole decade’s worth of earnings can easily be wiped out in one bad year. We don’t normally dwell too much on a particular sector but we made the point that the Australian banks are key constituents to the ASX200 index and therefore their performance will weigh heavily on the direction of the market and central banking outcomes. The Australian banks have also been a target of negative offshore publicity so we plan to explore their quality right here.
  5. 5. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278
  6. 6. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 We estimate around 22% of the ASX200 index is derived from the big four Australian banks whereas the number is less than half that for the DAX30. In our view we said that we “don’t doubt the ability of the Australian banks to book healthy profits” but instead were cautioning against some rosy assumptions already priced into the market. Click on the right to review the video if you haven’t already watched it. When the final numbers did come out last week, both ANZ and NAB struggled to book further gains in their respective share prices. In fact NAB actually fell by more than 2% on the day which it announced its earnings, in line with our comments three days prior. We didn’t have a crystal ball and it’s not that the banks report card was bad, it’s just that expectations had got a little ahead of themselves.
  7. 7. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 1.1 ANZ and NAB are worlds apart With the banks reporting their numbers, we thought it would be a good opportunity to update our views on this space. Invast has a strong preference for ANZ ahead of any other listed Australian banking exposure. We believe in the Asian growth strategy and think the bank is miles ahead of its regional peers in getting this expansion right. Perhaps it’s the fact that we are a Japanese broking firm now operating in Australia and so we live the Asian financial expansion story on a daily basis. We like ANZ so much that we plan to add it to our Wealth Preservation portfolio if the share price pulls back, which we think it will. ANZ’s expansion into Asia is not just about buying assets or opening branches, it’s about understanding the culture and market dynamics. The bank’s CEO Mike Smith knows the region better than any other western banker, having built up a regional footprint in his prior roles. It’s fair to say that ANZ is probably behind the curve on its IT investment spending but this has been due to a deliberate plan to get Asia right. We don’t any point in
  8. 8. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 having the best IT capabilities if your eggs are all in one basket – like Westpac with its pure domestic exposure. More on that later. ANZ’s Asian exposure fits into two of its reporting divisions – Institutional Banking and Global Wealth which both booked a 15% and 36% rise in cash profits respectively. The Australian business grew cash profits by 11% in comparison – not bad at all considering Australia is a very well developed and mature banking market but the decision to expand offshore will feature more prominently in coming years. It does carry risk – both currency and lending. Hedging is in place to meet 2014 currency earnings – around 50% of USD and 65% of NZD earnings. Asia now represents around 29% of the bank’s institutional credit exposure compared to only 19% three years ago, so a blow up in the region will definitely make life more difficult. But the thing we like about ANZ is the effort to make Asia happen – no bank can grow into an emerging region
  9. 9. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 without lending or currency risk. It takes courage at a time when other Australian peers are sailing comfortably off the back of a mining boom and low domestic interest rates. ANZ has a niche market in targeting Asia – trade financial and certain wealth management products which not only yield strong results but help contain lending risk. For example, Asian loans focused on shorter durance loans to multinational, high quality and often large customers. Around 67% of all Asian loans are of investment grade compared to 57% in Australia. It’s a well thought out, patient growth strategy. Many banks will blow up over their life cycle – that’s life in banking. Nobody knows this better than NAB which continues to struggle from its UK operations, but things are improving. The market had previously written down NAB’s ongoing UK problems but that stock had rallied going into last week’s result by more than 40% on the expectation that the worse was behind. While ANZ was building its Asian blueprint, NAB was cleaning up its UK mess. NAB’s earnings firmed by 9% for the year ending 30 September 2013 but revenue was only 2% higher – most of the increase in profits came from lower bad debt charges from the UK and other areas.
  10. 10. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 NAB’s UK business booked earnings of $150m compared to a $213m loss last year. The turnaround has eventuated but is the worst over? We aren’t popping the champagne bottles and remain cautious. NAB still has around GBP157 million of assets that are in arrears by 90 days or more and gross impaired assets of GBP423m – these are problem loans. To put things into context, NAB’s 2013 turnaround saw its UK business book cash earnings of GBP96m so the problems are still there on the balance sheet even though they weren’t as bad as last year. Net interest income in NAB’s UK business – the difference between the money it makes on loans and deposits before operating costs of bad loans – fell by 13%. It’s one thing to see higher earnings due to less loan losses, it’s another thing to be growing your earnings by writing more business which is what ANZ is doing.
  11. 11. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 1.2 How we think about banks When investing in a bank, there are two very important things to look for: • Net interest margins and the trend going forward – This is the bank’s ability to price. Just like any other industrial business if your pricing power is rising or falling, your earnings will be impacted. • Bad debts and arrears – Bad debts are expensed, but arrears are loans which haven’t been paid but not yet expensed through the profit and loss statement. They indicate what future expenses are likely to look like and hence we pay close attention. Returns on equity are also important – the amount of money the bank is generating for its shareholders on an annualised percentage basis – but the two above points will drive where this goes and so we exclude a discussion on this for the time being.
  12. 12. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Net interest margins Australia is still the key market for both ANZ and NAB. What happens offshore is only still marginal, what happens at some will dictate where earnings go. At Invast we think one of the most important short term issue is an all out price war on domestic residential mortgages. Perhaps it’s an overblown fear but when it comes to investing in banks it pays to be cautious. Just speak to investors in the USA and more recently in Europe who have seen banking shares collapse. NAB’s net interest margins in their domestic personal banking business are still respectable at 2.08% for the year ending September but if we review them over the half year period they did fall by 2 basis points to 2.07%. Still, nothing alarming but this is something that needs to be monitored. If domestic banking margins fall, the flow on impacts to the bank’s bottom line will be very significant.
  13. 13. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Singapore listed DBS which is a powerhouse in Asian bank and competes with ANZ, booked net interest margins of 1.62% in their last quarterly result. The point here is that a 2% plus net interest margin is considered high by global standards and so there is scope for margins to fall further in Australia. ANZ is somewhat in a more comfortable position with its Australian net interest margins at 2.52%, down only 1 basis point on the half – but it has the most to lose also with CBA and Westpac knocking on its door. To illustrate the DBS point made above, ANZ’s net interest margins in its global markets business fell by 16 basis points to 2.61% and so domestic pricing pressure is the latest thing it needs. At a group level, ANZ’s cash net interest margins fell by 6 basis points to 2.19% when compared to the prior half year period. Our bottom line is that net interest margins are under pressure and with most Australian banks well into the 2% range – there is scope for downside when compared to global peers.
  14. 14. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Bad debts and arrears We last discussed the quality of Australian banking assets in Invast Insights issue published on 23 September 2013 where we pointed to CBA’s arrears trend – falling in housing loans but rising in credit cards and personal loans. We made the point that the asset class that matters most – residential homeloans – is not seeing a systemic increase in arrears which is a positive signal for future bad debts. Banking shares collapse when bad debts start accumulating, it only takes a moderate risk on bad debt levels to completely wipe out banking earnings because of the huge financial leverage employed by banks – usually lending around 10 times their total equity levels and sometimes even higher offshore. NAB’s numbers echo this trend. Total 90 day past due loans were up only slightly to $789m when compared to March balances and remain flat at 0.47% as a proportion of gross loans and acceptances. ANZ’s total 90 day past due loans increased by 7% to $1.8bn when compared to the amount outstanding in March or 6% higher when compared to the same period last year. New
  15. 15. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 impaired loans when measured by division, increased by 20% in Australia, but fell by 2% in International and Institutional Banking. The trend isn’t as positive as CBA but not as alarming either. ANZ’s total 90 day past due loans as a proportion of their risk weighted assets is still at a negligible 0.53%. The numbers show that Australian banks don’t have credit quality issues and if earnings are to come under pressure we think that it will be price driven – through lower net interest margins – as opposed to cost driven through bad debts blowing out. Below is a list of the Australian listed banks and out preference points to buying, holding and selling. Table: Invast analyst estimates for the major banks
  16. 16. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 2.0 Technical analysis to filter market noise The underlying reason why most traders employ technical analysis is to filter unnecessary information from the market. We refer to these random price fluctuations as market noise and there is no way of avoiding them, especially if a trader is looking to trade intraday. The shorter the time frame the more noise there is. Market noise can be described as a flurry of price activity with no discerning pattern. This distorts the underlying market, often leading to a deceptive analysis of the market. Often misunderstood by a lot of traders, intraday trading is a much more difficult concept to grasp and master for this very reason. Longer-term traders and fundamental traders typically do not encounter market noise, hence the lack of need for indicators, other than to identify a specific exit level.
  17. 17. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 There are two types of short term traders, either an informed trader or a noise trader. Scalpers fall under the category of noise traders and rely on short bursts in the market to nab some quick profits. Informed traders rely more on the timing of entry and exit to trade intraday. At the end of the day both type of traders rely on some sort of guidance, such as technical indicators or market moving economic events, to initiate a trade and attempt to profit from the market. There are several ways a trader can quickly filter out the unnecessary noises in the market, ranging from a very simple method such as using a line chart, to a more complex combination of indicators and following of strict trading zones. This section will cover simple methods that can be applied to filter out these noises. Ranging from 3 categories - Chart Type , Time Frames and Indicators
  18. 18. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Chart Type Probably the easiest and simplest method to quickly filter out market noises is by changing the way you look at the market. Each chart type is designed with a purpose in mind. The traditional bar chart is a method used by western traders to quickly inform a trader the open, high, low and close of a period. The Japanese employ candlesticks in a similar manner with a more visualised approach, whereas line charts are designed and implemented to provide a visual cue of the underlying market direction. However, these three main types of charts are lacking a filter to reduce market noises. There are more specialised chart types out there that are specifically designed to filter spikes in the market and isolate price movements. Let’s take a look at one of them as an example.
  19. 19. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Heikin Ashi Heikin Ashi literally means an average, as such it takes the traditional candlestick and averages it, filtering out spikes from major news events or smaller fluctuations in the market. This resulted in a more uniform visual appearance of the candlestick chart. Take a look at the comparison pictures below.
  20. 20. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Figure 1 Candlestick (left) Heikin Ashi (right) Source: Invast MT4
  21. 21. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 There are of course various other chart types, which have a similar purpose in mind, but generally these chart types are not as readily available as the Heikin Ashi. Some of these include the Point and Figure Chart, Renko Chart and Kagi Chart. What is unique about the three aforementioned charts, is the lack of time factor. By removing time from the equation, changes in these charts are reflected simply by price movement. We will discuss these specialised charts in more details in future editions of Invast Insights. Time Frame While some of the specialised charts mentioned above disregard time, time itself is a major factor in eliminating noise in the market - we call this a market perspective. An intraday trader requires information that is relevant to their intraday trading (trading within the day), as such they would find the monthly chart rather irrelevant to their analysis. Swing traders require information that helps them plan for a trade lasting within the week. And a 1 minute chart will be irrelevant as it covers a very short period of time.
  22. 22. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 This market perspective is one of the defining characteristics of trading types. It is generally agreed that intraday traders require information from 1 minute chart up to a 4 hourly chart, swing traders obtain their information from 15 minutes charts up to a daily chart, and position traders start from the daily chart. A longer time frame allows trader to project targets much further into the future, while shorter time frames project a target that is more immediate. This very logic means that, the lower the time frame goes, the more market noise will increase. The higher the time frame, the less market noise there will be.
  23. 23. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 A higher time frame reflects the underlying market direction better. The charts below illustrate the difference in time frame from a single point in the market. Figure 1 GBP/USD 5 Minutes Chart illustrates a market trading sideways without any clear trend. Source: Invast MT4
  24. 24. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Figure 2 GBP/USD 1 Hour Chart illustrates a market trading in a downtrend. Source: Invast MT4
  25. 25. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Figure 3 GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart illustrates a market undergoing consolidation in an uptrend. Source: Invast MT4
  26. 26. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 The charts above illustrate how traders each trading on a different timeframe can have a different perspective of the market from a downtrend, sideways, to an uptrend market. Individually a timeframe does not provide a complete picture of the market; together they do provide a good understanding of the market direction that could benefit a trader in their trades. An interpretation of the 3 charts above could be as such: GBP/USD is currently undergoing consolidation while the hourly chart is starting to bottom out and a potential breakout to the upside can be seen from the 5 minute chart. This interpretation is in line with the 4 hour perspective that the market is still in an uptrend. Indicators Indicators are designed to filter out market movement, some to average spikes and lack of volatility in the market, some to help a trader measure
  27. 27. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 momentum and volatility in the market and others to help make trading easier by providing trend directions in the market. Unfortunately, almost all of the developed indicators out there are lagging in relation to price. Indicators can be made to react faster to price changes by lowering the periods used to calculate the indicators, however as always there is a catch to this. Indicators relying on period intervals such as Moving Average for example, filters less market noise the faster they react to changes in price. In fact, the purpose of indicators is to filter out these noises by creating an average of the market movement. Keep in mind that not all indicators are effective in filtering market noise, and in this article I will focus on two commonly used indicators to filter out market noise. Western trained traders employ moving averages as the foundation of most of the available indicators known to western traders. While eastern trained traders look up to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, an indicator developed in Japan during the 1930s.
  28. 28. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Moving Average As the name suggests moving average measures the average price over a set of periods. It can be used alone or in combination with a number of moving averages (typically 2 moving averages). These provide a filter (literally), showing traders the general market direction that is often lost during a volatile or choppy market. The key is to identify the general trend or the underlying trend of the financial instrument. Remember that the lower the period used to calculate the moving average, the fewer filters it provides. In this example I will use the Exponential Moving Average, an exponentially weighted average that allows it to react quicker to price changes than a simple average. A combination of 2 moving averages of a distinct period usually provides entry into a trade, while a set of moving averages with close periods provide a trend indication suitable in filtering out noise in the market.
  29. 29. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 In this example we’re employing an EMA 75 and EMA 100 (numbers are for illustration purposes only, as a matter of fact any combination of periods that does not extend beyond 25% off each other can be used as a trend detection). A cross over between these two Moving Averages indicates a price movement so extreme that the direction of the underlying market changes.
  30. 30. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Figure 4 EUR/USD Daily Chart, vertical line illustrates changes in the market that occur when the moving averages intersect each other. Source: Invast MT4
  31. 31. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Figure 5 EUR/USD 15 minutes, closely spaced moving averages filter out the noise in the market - when the two moving averages were at the same level but did not cross over, indicates that the market is in a sideways trading condition, not necessarily a change in trend. Source: Invast MT4
  32. 32. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, literally means “one look know it all” is the preferred chart method by traders in Japan to analyse the market. This method is quickly gaining popularity in recent years due to the simplicity and ease of use. The main component of the Ichimoku is the Kumo/Cloud. A price trading above the cloud is considered to be a market with an uptrend potential while trading below the cloud indicates that the market is in a downtrend. This is similar to the Moving Average cross-over we looked at previously. The difference is in how the Ichimoku shifts itself 26 periods ahead, providing an insight into the future, in the process balancing out the laggings produced by a moving average or traditional Western indicators. Again by identifying the general direction of the market, traders have extremely vital information to help in their decision making process. This allows them to manage their risk accordingly when attempting to trade in the
  33. 33. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 opposite direction of the underlying trend. To illustrate the effectiveness of these filters, I will show you three charts. One unfiltered, one with the moving average cross over and the last one with an illustration of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as a trend indicator.
  34. 34. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Figure 6 Unfiltered view of the GBP/USD hourly chart, showing a market in a downtrend. Source: Invast MT4
  35. 35. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Figure 7 EMA filtered GBP/USD hourly chart, note that the moving average picks up the change in trend when the market has moved down significantly. This is due to the lagging factor of a Moving Average. Source: Invast MT4
  36. 36. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Figure 8 Cloud filtered GBP/USD hourly, note that this provides a quicker reaction to trend changes compared to Moving Average. Source: Invast MT4
  37. 37. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 There we have it, as you can see there are several ways an indicator can be used to filter out market noise. Which one to use falls under a trader’s indicator preference and past experiences with them, as well as the kind of trading they do (intraday, swing or position). Ichimoku Cloud might seem to be the better option than the Moving Average crossover due to its reaction time, however it is limited to a longer time frame such as the 1 hour and above. Moving Average trumps over Ichimoku Cloud in a shorter time period like 1 minute and 5 minutes chart due to them lagging behind price changes and filtering out most of the noise produced in a smaller time frame. There is no “one size fits all” indicator unfortunately and the challenge most traders have is to identify is which indicator most complements their trading style. It is best to stick with an indicator you are most familiar and comfortable with if you are not willing to spend more time learning a new one. Just spend more time and experiment with different indicator settings.
  38. 38. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 My tip is for you to try increasing the periods of an indicator, resulting in an indicator with more lag but also more filtered market noise. From then on, decrease it to a setting you find most comfortable with. Remember, it is best to be safe than sorry, especially when it comes to trading on the financial market. 2.0 Understanding Beta in FX Beta or Beta Coefficient is a term in the financial market referring to volatility correlation between an asset and a benchmark the asset is compared to. In share markets this refers to the price of a share compared to a benchmark index such as the ASX200 or the US S&P500. An asset with a beta value of 1 moves in relation to the direction and volatility of the benchmark, a beta more than 1 implies that the asset is more volatile than the benchmark but still moves in the same direction and a beta lower than 1 but less than zero implies that the asset moves in the same direction but is less volatile. Some benchmarks are not correlated or are inversely correlated to the asset and this can be identified as a beta of 0 when they are not correlated and a negative beta if they are inversely correlated.
  39. 39. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Beta is often used to measure the risk associated with an asset, and depending on the purpose of the investment or trade, every individual has a different perception of risk (attitude towards risk) in relation to the beta of the asset. Day traders typically look for an asset with a high beta, exposing them to higher risk but with a higher expected return on investment. Whereas, investors with a low risk tolerance prefer a beta that is less than 1 to minimise the volatility risk of the market. While beta figures are a common occurrence among share traders and option traders, the term beta is relatively unknown to currency traders. Not because beta does not exist, it’s just that currency traders unknowingly have some knowledge of beta but use a different term. Currency traders are more familiar with the theory that the EUR/USD and USD/CHF are inversely correlated; which simply means that between the two pairs there is a negative beta.
  40. 40. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 What is interesting for currency traders is how currency pair betas can actually be calculated against several benchmarks, from the US dollar index, VIX, S&P500 and even against currency crosses that matter for example EUR/USD against EUR/GBP and GBP/USD. As you can probably guess EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD falls under the high beta currencies while USD/CHF and USD/JPY have a lower beta when compared to the USD index. This simply means that any fluctuations in the USD index is often exaggerated in the high beta currencies and is barely affecting the price movement in the lower beta currencies. Emerging market currencies and exotic currencies typically have a much higher beta due to lack of liquidity in the market. A simple manual data entry into an excel sheet can provide you with the beta of any comparison you wish to calculate. Beta is simply a linear regression analysis of the asset against the benchmark and the steps below will help you in calculating the beta of an asset.
  41. 41. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 1. Obtain historical data of the asset 2. Obtain historical data of the benchmark 3. Convert price data to return value by using this formula: RETURN = (close price – open price) / Open Price 4. Convert benchmark data to return value using the same formula as the above 5. Use SLOPE Function to find the slope between both arrays of data and the result is the beta, for more information on SLOPE please refer to: http://office.microsoft.com/en-au/excel-help/slope-function- HP010342903.aspx
  42. 42. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 4.0 Social media & trading The following is a feature article written by Ashley Jessen – Invast’s Director of Communication – which was published on the Invast blog last month. He looks at the growth of social media in financial markets and how this benefits or disadvantages traders. Social media has not quite revolutionised trading but it is certainly making professional trading systems and access to professional traders that much easier, and for the main part, access is free. Full trading plans, complete entry and exit signals plus follow up analysis of winning and losing trades is usually available across Twitter, Trading View, LinkedIn trading groups and Stock Twits. In addition to that, Facebook is being used by some of the leading brokers, like Invast, who are happy to put their analysts skills on the line and publish their recommended market calls.
  43. 43. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Time poor traders may benefit using social media as they can hand pick their favourite analysts across the social trading sites, such as Trading View (www.tradingview.com), and simply buy and sell in line with their preferred market calls. The beauty of a service like this is that a full trading plan including entry, exits and profit targets are highlighted and then the company follows up and nominates whether or not the trade was profitable or hit your stop loss and lost money. Can these social sites be trusted? Trusting a service or analyst posting their trade ideas is not difficult and is just a matter of getting used to the style of analysis each person conducts and seeing if that fits in with your timeframe and risk profile. Experienced traders could add another signal to their portfolio by first trading the new signals on a demo account. A demo account allows you to trade with 'play money' with no risk of losing your own money. Once the money has
  44. 44. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 established a positive track record and you are comfortable, then you can begin taking their signals on your live trading account. It wouldn't be out of the ordinary to test a new analyst for 1-2 months before getting comfortable. Full documented trading results Another option that enables a trader to gain trust is that many social sites will provide full documented results of their past trades including average win, average loss, percentage win and percentage loss, providing a trader will a comprehensive view of whether or not that strategy will benefit their bank account. Having fully documented results of the trading systems can give a trader peace of mind and an understanding of the style of system the analyst has created. For example a trading system that has their wins the same size as their losses is normally a short term system looking for quick profit targets and short exits on losing trades. Whereas a system that has their average win 2-3 times the size of their average loss would suggest a more medium term trend following system that allows the winners to run and cuts losses of short.
  45. 45. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Finding a system to suit your trading style Finding a system that suits your trading style is becoming easier and with a sensible approach you can find systems that will potentially help you achieve a nicely up trending equity curve. In this case you are not necessary looking for stratospheric returns but instead happy to settle for steady and consistent returns. With an abundance of analysts now posting their complete trading ideas and systems it is now much easier to align your trading account with those who you feel meet your preferred trading timeframe and tolerance for risk. Good luck with your trading. 5.0 Melbourne Cup tip We don’t think our Melbourne Cup tipping will be as good as our investment selections in recent months but we thought we would share our views on some value for the big race nevertheless and with a little bit of arm twisting at our
  46. 46. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 compliance department. Obviously, this section is for fun purposes only so please keep that in mind. We like value at Invast and our selection criteria was for something with enough experience and $15 plus starting odds. We didn’t run any quantitative models like the investment banks usually do with the Melbourne Cup picks because like predicting markets, numbers always have their limitations. It’s been a while since Gay Waterhouse or Bart Cummings won the cup, but what stood out to us more prominently this year is the absence of success from the Middle Eastern owners considering the huge investment in branding the cup has attracted from the region – now officially called the Emirates Melbourne Cup. The Emirates Marque at Flemington looks amazing. The South Africans and Japanese own our beer market, the Arabian brands now own major sporting events and with that we think it’s probably time the investment they have put in starts flowing through in terms of a cup result.
  47. 47. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 With that said, this year we are backing Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s tilt at the cup through his Royal Empire horse. It’s been 15 years since Godolphin (Al Maktoum’s private thoroughbred horseracing stable) won the cup. Some joke that the Sheikh’s primary job is to run a global horseracing and breeding empire while his second job is acting as the Prime Minister and Vice President of the United Arab Emirates while maintaining his title as Ruler of Dubai. Royal Empire has a starting price as at the time of writing somewhere in the order of $31. The horse will be ridden by Kerrin McEvoy. Royal Empire doesn’t have the depth of experience as other horses in the field but we like its consistency and strong strike rate – 15 starts for five wins, five seconds and one third placing. What it doesn’t have is big race experience at this level but it has beaten former Melbourne cup contenders. We think the Sheikh is keen to add the Melbourne Cup to his trophy cabinet and will be going with Royal Empire on race day for a little bit of fun and value.
  48. 48. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 6.0 Weekly economic calendar
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  53. 53. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 To get additional trading information, drop by our blog today.
  54. 54. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 7.0 Disclaimer Please note that you are receiving this report complimentary from Invast Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL 438 283). Invast staff members may from time to time purchase securities which are included in this or future reports. The authors of this report may or may not be holding a position in the securities mentioned. Please note that the information contained in this report and Invast's website is of a general nature only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek professional advice before opening an account with us. General Disclaimer: This newsletter contains confidential information and is intended only for the person who downloaded it. You should not disseminate, distribute or copy this newsletter. Invast does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this newsletter which arise as a result of downloading this newsletter. This newsletter is provided for informational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial product. Invast Financial Services Pty Ltd is regulated by ASIC (AFSL 438 283 | ABN 48 162 400 035).
  55. 55. www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278 Risk Warning: It's important for you to read and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement, and any other relevant Invast Financial Services Pty Ltd documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any financial products listed in this email. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All these documents are available here on our website, or you can call us on +612 8036 7555. CFDs and Foreign Exchange are leveraged products and carry a high level of risk and you can lose more than your initial deposit so you should ensure CFD and Foreign Exchange trading meets your personal circumstances. General Advice Warning: Being general advice, this newsletter does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. *Distributed with the permission of Invast.com.au

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