1. Responsible Unconventional Gas and
Oil Production
Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Calgary, August 2012
© OECD/IEA 2011

2. Deglobalization of gas markets
Avg. gap in 2011:
USD 5.8/MBtu
Avg. gap in 2011
USD 5.0 /MBtu
Source: ICE, EIA, IEA, German Customs, Japanese Customs, McCloskey
© OECD/IEA 2011

3. Fracturing the status quo
Natural gas supply growth in the Golden Rules Case, 2010-2035
1 200
bcm
Rest of world
1 000
Indonesia
Canada
800 European Union
India
Australia
600 Rest of world
United States
400 Russia
Middle East
200 & China
North Africa
0
Conventional Unconventional
Combined unconventional gas output growth from the United States, China & Australia
surpasses that of all conventional producers - mainly the MENA region & Russia
© OECD/IEA 2011

4. Rolling back shale gas production would lead to
a less secure and less sustainable energy system
Selected natural gas trade volumes, 2035
Net imports Net exports
Golden Rules Case
China
Additional net trade in
European Union Low Unconventional Case
United States & Canada
Middle East
Russia
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600
bcm
Gas trade in the Low Unconventional Case is up 30%, some trade patterns are reversed,
gas prices are higher & the position of the main conventional exporters reinforced
© OECD/IEA 2011

5. Hydraulic fracturing can be done safely, but ‘golden
rules’ are essential to maintain social acceptance
© OECD/IEA 2011

6. Americas Drive Growth in Non-OPEC Oil Supply
mb/d Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Americas FSU OECD EUR
China Other Asia PG & Biofuels
Other Total
© OECD/IEA 2011

7. Responsible Unconventional Gas and
Oil Production
Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Calgary, August 2012
© OECD/IEA 2011