Responsible Unconventional Gas and Oil Production

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Responsible Unconventional Gas and Oil Production

  1. 1. Responsible Unconventional Gas and Oil Production Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Calgary, August 2012 © OECD/IEA 2011
  2. 2. Deglobalization of gas markets Avg. gap in 2011: USD 5.8/MBtu Avg. gap in 2011 USD 5.0 /MBtu Source: ICE, EIA, IEA, German Customs, Japanese Customs, McCloskey © OECD/IEA 2011
  3. 3. Fracturing the status quo Natural gas supply growth in the Golden Rules Case, 2010-2035 1 200 bcm Rest of world 1 000 Indonesia Canada 800 European Union India Australia 600 Rest of world United States 400 Russia Middle East 200 & China North Africa 0 Conventional Unconventional Combined unconventional gas output growth from the United States, China & Australia surpasses that of all conventional producers - mainly the MENA region & Russia © OECD/IEA 2011
  4. 4. Rolling back shale gas production would lead toa less secure and less sustainable energy system Selected natural gas trade volumes, 2035 Net imports Net exports Golden Rules Case China Additional net trade in European Union Low Unconventional Case United States & Canada Middle East Russia -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 bcm Gas trade in the Low Unconventional Case is up 30%, some trade patterns are reversed, gas prices are higher & the position of the main conventional exporters reinforced © OECD/IEA 2011
  5. 5. Hydraulic fracturing can be done safely, but ‘goldenrules’ are essential to maintain social acceptance © OECD/IEA 2011
  6. 6. Americas Drive Growth in Non-OPEC Oil Supply mb/d Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Americas FSU OECD EUR China Other Asia PG & Biofuels Other Total © OECD/IEA 2011
  7. 7. Responsible Unconventional Gas and Oil Production Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Calgary, August 2012 © OECD/IEA 2011

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