Joost Gerdes March 14 2012

1. Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency –
The Netherlands
Joost Gerdes – IEA March 14th, 2012
www.ecn.nl

2. How ECN monitors energy efficiency
• Focus on quantitative approach, top-down, total
savings
• Scope: complete energy system, including primary
energy
• Conversion sectors: power plants, CHP, refineries
• Uncertainty – total savings 1.1% +/- 0.3% – large
because of large margins in year-to-year changes
• Decomposition into multiple driving factors
2 19-3-2012

3. 3
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
19-3-2012
[PJ]
GDP
growth
Structure
main sectors
Structure
subsectors
Structure
final demand
Savings
final demand
Eff. conversion
end-users
Co-generation
end-users
Fuel mix
end-users
Export
Structure
energy sectors
Co-generation
energy sectors
Efficiency
Decomposition into driving factors
energy sectors
Import
Fuel mix
268 PJ
energy sectors
Level 1990
Level 1999
Level 1999
Level 1990

4. How ECN monitors additional benefits of
savings
• We monitor progress in energy savings and
additional benefits of CO2 emission reduction
• Long term agreements were also meant to
improve competitive advantage; the results have
been monitored
• Environmental benefits excluding greenhouse
gases (National Emission Ceiling emissions):
limited effect
4 19-3-2012

5. Benefits mentioned by IEA not monitored
• Energy poverty: not relevant for NL because of the
robust social security system
• Rebound effect: not monitored, we focus on
realized savings. Rebound effect is hard to
measure, also because of uncertainty. It may be
less of an issue when energy prices rise.
• Job creation: has not been an important factor as
unemployment is (expected to be) low in NL
5 19-3-2012

6. Importance of the multiple benefit types
• Surprised to see no mention of the role of
efficiency in climate target scenarios; in this case
efficiency measures are a “no-brainer”. Looking at
the past or non-EU countries?
• Most important benefits: greenhouse gas and
contaminants emission reduction, reaching targets
for renewables, increasing security of supply and
R/P ratio, competitiveness
• Efficiency measures are among the most profitable
measure types to achieve greenhouse gas
reductions and/or a percentage renewables
6 19-3-2012

7. Are additional benefits needed?
Cost of measures curve
Meuro per Mton CO2-eq
Volume and structure
Savings on final use
Renewable energy
CHP
New power plants
Nuclear power plants
Other GHG options
CO2 storage processes
Fuel substitution
Conversion efficiency
CO2 storage conversion
Foreign allowances
Reduction [Mton CO2-eq]
7 19-3-2012