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Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Tapping technology's potential to secure a clean energy future

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Published on

Richard H. Jones
Deputy Executive Director,
International Energy Agency
Korea, Seoul
June 18, 2012

Published in: Technology, Business
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Tapping technology's potential to secure a clean energy future

  1. 1. Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy futureRichard H. JonesDeputy Executive DirectorKorea, SeoulJune 18, 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  2. 2. ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures 2DS 4DS 6DSa vision of a sustainable reflecting pledges by where the world is nowenergy system of reduced countries to cut heading with potentiallyGreenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and boost devastating resultsand CO2 emissions energy efficiency The 2°C Scenario The 4°C Scenario The 6°C Scenario © OECD/IEA 2012
  3. 3. Sustainable future still in reach Is a clean energy Are we on track to Can we get ontransition urgent? reach a clean track? energy future? YES ✓ NO ✗ YES ✓ © OECD/IEA 2012
  4. 4. Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) © OECD/IEA 2012
  5. 5. A smart, sustainable energy system Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Distributed energy resourcesSmart energysystem control H2 vehicle Surplus heat EV A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system © OECD/IEA 2012
  6. 6. Clean energy: slow lane to fast track Cleaner coal power Nuclear power Renewable power CCS in power CCS in industry Progress is too slow in Industry almost all technology areas Significant action is required Buildings to get back on track Fuel economy Electric vehicles Biofuels for transport © OECD/IEA 2012
  7. 7. Low-carbon electricity: a clean core 45 000 Other 40 000 Wind 35 000 Solar 30 000 Hydro NuclearTWh 25 000 Biomass and waste 20 000 Oil 15 000 Gas with CCS 10 000 Gas 5 000 Coal with CCS 0 Coal 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS © OECD/IEA 2012
  8. 8. Nuclear and Renewables need to dominate OECD Asia Oceania electricity 2 500 100% 2% 0.5% 6% 8% 6% Other renewables Other renewables 90% 6% 5% 6% 2 000 80% 11% Wind 24% Wind 8% 70% 11% Solar Solar Generation share 1 500 60% 35% TWh 50% Hydro Hydro 1 000 40% 47% Nuclear 3% Nuclear 67% 30% Fossil w CCS 500 20% w CCS Fossil 34% 6% 10% Fossil w/o CCS Fossil w/o CCS 11% 0 0% 4DS 2DS 4DS 2DS 2009 2050 2009 2050Whereas today around two thirds of electricity are based on fossil fuels, nuclear andrenewables play an important role to decarbonise electricity supply under the 2DS. © OECD/IEA 2012
  9. 9. Acceleration of nuclear, wind and PV needed Hydro Nuclear CSP 2021-50 PV Wind, offshore 2011-20 Wind, onshore 2001-2010 Biomass Gas with CCS Coal with CCS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 GW per year Massive deployment of low-carbon technologies needed, especially of nuclear and renewable technologies. © OECD/IEA 2012
  10. 10. All flexibility sources will be needed Demand side Interconnection Dispatchable Energy storage Response with adjacent power plants facilities (via smart grid) markets Industrial Biomass-fired residential Pumped hydro Scandinavian power plant facility interconnections © OECD/IEA 2012
  11. 11. Smart grids offer net benefitsTotal benefits of smart-grid investments outweigh costs – but direct benefits of investment may be found in other sectors. © OECD/IEA 2012
  12. 12. Natural Gas: a transitional fuel 7 500Power Generation from Natural Gas 5 000 TWh 2 500 0 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Other non-OECD India China OECD Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’ © OECD/IEA 2012
  13. 13. The CCS infant must grow quickly Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2Mt CO2Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year © OECD/IEA 2012
  14. 14. Industry must become more efficient 12 6DS 10 Other industries 8 Chemicals and petrochemicalsGtCO2 6 Aluminium 4 Pulp and paper 2 Iron and steel 0 Cement 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies. © OECD/IEA 2012
  15. 15. Electric vehicles need to come of age 200 FCEV Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell ElectricityPassenger LDV sales (million) 150 Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline 100 Diesel hybrid Gasoline hybrid 50 CNG/LPG Diesel 0 Gasoline 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050 © OECD/IEA 2012
  16. 16. Translating targets into action 8 7 Manufacturers 6 production/salesmillion sales/year 5 Projection 4 (Estimated from each countrys 3 target) Projection 2 (Estimated from each countrys 1 target) 0 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 Government targets need to be backed by policy action © OECD/IEA 2012
  17. 17. Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future Total energy savings 33 EJ Space heating 22% Other 15% Water heating Services 12% Lighting, 3% Residential Cooling and ventilation, 3% Water heating, 2% Cooking 15% Space heating, 7% Appliances Cooling and ventilation 10% Lighting 5% 6% About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector © OECD/IEA 2012
  18. 18. Building sector challenges differ 2.5 2.0Billion households 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OECD Non OECD 75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
  19. 19. Heating & Cooling: huge potential Renewable heat Integration with electricity District heating and cooling network Co-generation Surplus heat Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected. © OECD/IEA 2012
  20. 20. Emissions must be eliminated by 2075 A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS. © OECD/IEA 2012
  21. 21. Increase public spending on RD&D 25 12% 10% 20 Share of energy RD&D in total R&D 8% 2008 non-IEA country spending 15 4 6%USD billion 10 3 USD billion 4% 2 5 2% 1 0 0% 0 South Africa Mexico China India Russia Brazil 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Energy efficiency Fossil fuels Renewable energy Nuclear Hydrogen and fuel cells Other power and storage technologies Other cross cutting technologies/research Share of energy RD&D in total R&D © OECD/IEA 2012
  22. 22. Clean energy investment pays off Additional Additional investment investment Power Power WithFuel savings Industry price effect Industry Transport Without price effect Residential Transport Commercial UndiscountedTotal savings Fuel savings Residential 3% Biomass Commercial Coal 10% Oil Gas - 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40 USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return. © OECD/IEA 2012
  23. 23. For much more, please visitwww.iea.org/etp © OECD/IEA 2012

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