Lew Fulton presents IEA's transport projections over the short, medium and long term at the World Biofuels Markets 2012 conference in Rotterdam, 14 March.
Among other points, Lew demonstrates that even with a maximum contribution from electric and hydrogen fuel cell cars and trucks, and huge efficiency improvements across all types of vehicles, the liquid fuel demand in 2050 is likely to be at least as big as today's (focused mainly in trucks, ships and aircraft).
Biofuels are the only other major option for cutting CO2 emissions in transport, so it is imperative that we find ways to move toward large volume production of advanced, sustainable biofuels. If we can't do it, it means the transport sector may continue to rely heavily on oil, emitting large amounts of CO2, in 2050.
International Energy Agency
World Biofuels Markets
Rotterdam, 14 March 2012