Biofuels and Transport Futures: IEA views to 2015, 2030 & 2050


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Lew Fulton presents IEA's transport projections over the short, medium and long term at the World Biofuels Markets 2012 conference in Rotterdam, 14 March.

Among other points, Lew demonstrates that even with a maximum contribution from electric and hydrogen fuel cell cars and trucks, and huge efficiency improvements across all types of vehicles, the liquid fuel demand in 2050 is likely to be at least as big as today's (focused mainly in trucks, ships and aircraft).

Biofuels are the only other major option for cutting CO2 emissions in transport, so it is imperative that we find ways to move toward large volume production of advanced, sustainable biofuels. If we can't do it, it means the transport sector may continue to rely heavily on oil, emitting large amounts of CO2, in 2050.

Lew Fulton
International Energy Agency
World Biofuels Markets
Rotterdam, 14 March 2012

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  • Here you see the very strong rates of change in the sales of advanced vehicles in BLUE Map. From today, we rapidly ramp up EV and PHEV sales. From about 2020 we start sales of fuel cell vehicles. By 2050 there are very few conventional ICE vehicles being sold anywhere in the world.
  • The IEA Biofuel Roadmap has been developed as part of a series of Technology Roadmaps that look in more detail at the required steps to deploy certain low-carbon technologies, and achieve the emission reductions envisioned in the BLUE Map Scenario. The initial set includes 19 Technology Roadmaps, of which 10 have already been published. Several roadmaps deal with renewable energy technologies, of which the Wind , Solar Photovoltaic , and the Concentrated Solar Power Roadmap have already been published. In 2 weeks a Geothermal Roadmap will be launched, and a roadmap on Solar Heating and Cooling , and Bioenergy for Heat and Power are currently being developed. The roadmaps take a long-term view, but highlight in particular the key actions that need to be taken by different stakeholders in the next 5-10 years. This is because the actions undertaken within the next decade will be critical to get currently pre-commercial low-carbon energy technologies to a commercial stage and achieve the long-term emission reductions required to mitigate Climate Change. The importance of short-term action to deploy low-carbon energy technologies has just been underlined by a new IEA analysis published yesterday. The analysis shows for instance that in the power sector, existing plants together with those under construction lead to a lock-in of CO2 emissions as they will be operating for some decades. It is thus crucial to build up low-carbon energy supply today!
  • This figure, which is based on existing announcements from press reports and other sources for EV and PHEV sales and stock targets, shows that sales could reach 7 million (Korea just announced a target of 1 million vehicles by 2020). The Electric Vehicles Initiative could establish an ongoing tracking system of this and other important indicators, working with countries and other stakeholders, and IEA is ready to take lead on this task . The announcements are very encouraging and if we can reach this 2020 sales shown here, we would be well positioned to reach the ETP BLUE Map CO2 reduction targets for LDVs, which reflects a similar rate of ramp-up. In BLUE Map, sales of Evs, PHEVs, and FCVs reaches over 100 million per year by 2050, with close to 1 billion on the road in that year.
  • Animated slide: First you will see cost ranges of conventional biofuels. After a click the cost ranges of advanced biofuels will appear. As you can see, biofuel production cost development is not 100% certain and costs might vary somewhat between different regions. The ranges in production costs shown on this slide are resulting from different model assumptions. The most important factor that influences the lower and the upper end of the cost assumptions is the link between rising oil prices and feedstock capital costs. The lower costs reflect a very weak link, whereas the higher-costs are resulting from a stronger link with rises in oil prices influencing feedstock costs by 20% and also driving up capital costs. Based on the expected production costs, the total expenditure on biofuels in the Biofuel Roadmap is estimated between USD 11-13 trillion, which translates into a share of 11-12% of total spendings on transport fuels during the next 40 years (i.e. including diesel, gasoline, CNG, electricity etc.). The important issue, however, is to look at the marginal costs of biofuel use compared to diesel/gasoline use. This is only in the range of +/- 1% of total expenditure on transport fuels over the next 40 years, and thus is more or less lost in the noise. The key policy measure to achieve the envisioned cost reductions will be to provide support for the first commercial-scale advanced biofuel production units, which is a critical step towards getting to an economy of scale. In the longer-term, technology specific economic incentives can then be phased out.
  • Biofuels and Transport Futures: IEA views to 2015, 2030 & 2050

    1. 1. World Biofuels MarketsRotterdam, 14 March 2012Biofuels and Transport Futures: IEAviews to 2015, 2030, 2050Lew FultonInternational Energy Agency © OECD/IEA 2010
    2. 2. A presentation in 3 parts…  Quick view to 2016  Deeper view to 2035  Deepest view to 2050© OECD/IEA 2010
    3. 3. Global Biofuel Production – Medium-Term Outlook World: Total Biofuels Demandmb/d Global Biofuels Supply m b/d Adjusted for Energy Content2.8 1.8 2.0%2.4 1.72.0 1.6 1.8%1.6 1.51.2 1.4 1.6%0.8 1.30.4 1.2 1.4%0.0 1.1 1.0 1.2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Biofuels Brazil Biofuels OECD Europe Biofuels Rest of Global Biofuels Biofuels Share of Total Dem and• Global biofuels production rises from 1.8 mb/d (105 billion L) in 2010 to 2.3 mb/d (135 billion L) in 2016 – A total increase of 0.5 mb/d… – …equivalent to an average yearly growth of 4.3% or 90 kb/d• On an energy adjusted basis versus oil, biofuels supply increases from 1.3 mb/d (2.4 EJ) in 2010 to 1.7 mb/d (3.4 EJ) in 2016 – Energy adjusted supply growth to meet 9% of gasoline and gasoil growth, with ethanol at 24% of gasoline growth and biodiesel at 4% of gasoil growth – Yet, in 2016, biofuels satisfy only 1.8% of total global demand
    4. 4. Most new oil production capacity is needed to offset decline World liquids supply by type in the New Policies Scenario 110 mb/d 100 Biofuels 90 Processing gains 80 Unconventional oil 70 Natural gas liquids 60 50 Crude oil: 40 Yet to be found 30 Yet to be developed 20 Currently producing 10 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 Decline at existing conventional fields amounts to 47 mb/d, twice current OPEC Middle East production; the largest production increases come from Iraq, Saudi Arabia & Brazil© OECD/IEA 2011
    5. 5. Transport drives oil demand Change in primary oil demand by sector & region in the New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035 China Transport India Buildings Middle East Other Asia Industry Africa Other E. Europe/Eurasia Latin America OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe OECD Americas -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 mb/d Transport net demand expands by 14 mb/d between 2010 & 2035, outweighing a net fall in demand of more than 1 mb/d in other sectors© OECD/IEA 2011
    6. 6. Car markets move to non-OECD countries World PLDV sales in the New Policies Scenario 120 Vehicle sales: Million vehicles Electric 100 Natural gas 80 Hybrid Conventional ICE 60 40 20 0 2010 2020 2030 2035 2010 2020 2030 2035 OECD Non-OECD Global car remain dominated by conventional ICE vehicles, but hybrids make significant inroads.© OECD/IEA 2011
    7. 7. ETP 2010: Transport Energy Use in 2050 by Scenario e 000 5 Hydrogen o t4 500 M Biofuels 4 000 3 500 Electricity 3 000 CNG and LPG 2 500 2 000 GTL and CTL 1 500 Heavy fuel oil 1 000 Jet fuel 500 Diesel Baseline Baseline BLUE BLUE BLUE Gasoline Shifts Map Map Shifts 2007 2030 2050 •Global transport energy use in Baseline doubles by 2050 •BLUE Shifts achieves a 20% reduction in 2050; BLUE Map achieves 40%, BLUE Map/Shifts achieves nearly 50% •Nearly 50% of energy is low-CO2 renewable in 2050© OECD/IEA 2010
    8. 8. Passenger LDV sales by technology type and scenario: BLUE Map will be VERY challenging Million sales / year 180 180 Baseline BLUE Map 160 160 H2 Fuel Cell 140 140 Electric 120 120 Plug-in Hybrid 100 100 Hybrid 80 80 60 60 CNG/LPG 40 40 Conventional Diesel 20 20 Conventional 0 0 Gasoline 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 In the ETP Baseline, sales are mainly conventional vehicles through 2050; hybrids reach about 20% of sales In BLUE Map, strong penetration of hybrids by 2015, PHEVs and EVs by 2020, FCVs after 2025. By 2050, plug-in vehicles© OECD/IEA 2010 account for more than two-thirds of all sales.
    9. 9. How much biofuels will we need worldwide by 2050? Even in ETP 2 degree scenario, electricity and H2 will have limited transport application if no technology breakthroughs; 2000 MTOE up for grabs 1200 1000 800 Fossil/ 600 Biofuels M O T E Hydrogen 400 Electricity 200 0 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 Light-duty Urban trucks Long-haul Shipping Aviation vehicles trucks© OECD/IEA 2010
    10. 10. How much biofuels will we need worldwide by 2050? In ETP 2 degree scenario, we have about 700 MTOE of biofuels in 2050 compared to 70 today; can we do this? 1200 1000 800 600 Fossil M O Biofuel T E 400 Hydrogen Electricity 200 0 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 Light-duty Urban trucks Long-haul Shipping Aviation vehicles trucks© OECD/IEA 2010
    11. 11. © OECD/IEA 2011
    12. 12. IEA Technology Roadmaps Roadmaps are intended to:  Highlight pathway(s) to reach large scale use of low-carbon technologies, consistent with Energy Technology Perspectives publication  Focus on the key steps over the next 5-10 years, as well as long-term milestones, including:  Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome these  Identify key conversion pathways  Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability  Identify market requirements and policy needs  Define international collaboration needs For more information: IEA Technology Roadmap - Biofuels for Transport  Developed under consultation of industry, governmental and research institutions as well as NGOs  Closely linked to forthcoming Technology Roadmap on Bioenergy for Heat and Power Concentrated Solar Power Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Smart Grids Solar Photovoltaic Energy Wind Energy © OECD/IEA 2011
    13. 13. Key outputs from IEA Biofuels Roadmap, 2011© OECD/IEA 2010
    14. 14. Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50 Production costs shown as untaxed retail price Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case Total expenditure on biofuels 2010-50 sums up to USD 11-13 trillion (i.e. 11-12% of total fuel costs) Incremental costs compared to use of fossil fuels are in the range of +/-1% of total fuel cost spending in the next 40 years © OECD/IEA 2011
    15. 15. IEA Roadmap: Key policy actions Stability:  Create a long-term policy framework for biofuels. Innovation and Deployment:  Provide sustained funding for advanced biofuels RD&D and commercial deployment.  Support research efforts on land availability mapping and biomass potential analysis. Sustainability:  Adopt sound, internationally aligned sustainability certification for biofuels.  Link economic incentives to sustainability performance of biofuels.  Incentivise use of wastes and residues. International Collaboration:  Engage in international collaboration on capacity building and technology transfer.  Promote the alignment of biofuel and other related policies (agriculture, forestry, rural development). © OECD/IEA 2011
    16. 16. Acknowledgements Thanks to the co-authors:  Adam Brown, Anselm Eisentraut, Jana Hanova and Jack Saddler IEA Technology Roadmap - Biofuels for Transport Available: Contact: Forthcoming: IEA Technology Roadmap – Bioenergy for Heat and Power Launch date: Spring 2012 © OECD/IEA 2011