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Healing the Planet : Conservation of the World’s Tropical Forests International Year of Forests Symposium Instituto Alexan...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Dr. Svante August Arrhenius 1859-1927
Source: Wallace Broecker Analysis of a Greenland ice core oxygen isotope proxy
Years before present CO 2 -concentration (ppm) 1750 200 240 280 320 360 160 400 Siegenthaler U  et al.  (2005) Science 310...
Source: Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, UEA Global temperature record temperat...
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Global Carbon Project; Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated) (Avgs.) SRES (2...
Signals from nature T HE  H .  J OHN  H EINZ  III   C ENTER FOR S CIENCE,  E CONOMICS AND THE  E NVIRONMENT Lara Hansen / ...
Earlier flowering date
Kew Magazine, Summer 2007 Climate Change at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
Edith’s Checkerspot <ul><li>Range shift northward and upward during the 20th century </li></ul><ul><li>Most extinctions in...
Source: National Arbor Day Foundation Hardiness zones adjusted to warmer climate
Biological Response Phenological changes attributed to recent climate change McCarty  (2001) White et al.  (2004) National...
©  WWF-Canon / Michèle D é praz
Increasing number of dry days Source: J.A. Pounds et al 2005
Looking ahead T HE  H .  J OHN  H EINZ  III   C ENTER FOR S CIENCE,  E CONOMICS AND THE  E NVIRONMENT Jaan Lepson
Sugar Maple range projections by 5 GCMs with 2 x CO 2 Source: A.M. Prasad and Iverson, L.R:  www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atl...
Elevated night time temperatures magnify bark beetle impact Source: D. Struck 3/1/2006,  Washington Post , pA1 ‘ Rapid War...
Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks (1959-2002)   Courtesy of Mike Bradley, Canfor Corporation
Courtesy of NOAA/NCAR
2010 2005 Amazon Rainfall in 2010 and 2005 (deviation from 10-year mean) S. Lewis, P. Brando, D. Nepstad, submitted
 
Critical thresholds in the Earth system Where local or regional changes may have strong effects on earth system interactio...
Science Magazine, November 23, 2007 IPCC Climate Change and Impact Projections
(1)  Arctic sea-ice (2)  Greenland ice-sheet stability (3)  Antarctic ice-sheet stability (4)  Major ecosystem disruption ...
What is a “safe” level? James Hansen, et al., 2008 350 ppm
What can be done Adaptation -Revise Conservation Strategies Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations -Reduce and eliminate emis...
Increase natural connectivity to facilitate species movement Adaptation: Revise conservation strategies Minimize climate c...
Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Revise Energy Base for Society
Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations 20% of Annual Emissions come from deforestation
Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2  Emissions  (2000-2007) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated) 1.5 Pg C y -1 + 7.5 Pg C y -1 Atmo...
Long atmospheric residence times for greenhouse gases
What can be done Lower Atmospheric CO 2 - Restore ecosystems ( biodiversity and carbon ) - Non-biological CO 2  removal
Origin of land plants Expansion of angiosperms Present-day CO 2 The Role of Life Processes
Over the past three centuries, ecosystems have lost 200-250 billion tons of carbon
Planetary Engineering Using Ecosystems CO2 PPM Time 280
The Role of Forests
Photo courtesy USDA NRCS    Restoring Grazing Land
Photos: United States Department of Agriculture—Natural Resources Conservation Service .  Modify Agriculture to Build up S...
Re-Greening the Emerald Planet
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Proyecto dinámicas biológicas de los fragmentos de bosques - Thomas Lovejoy

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Proyecto dinámicas biológicas de los fragmentos de bosques - Thomas Lovejoy

  1. 1. Healing the Planet : Conservation of the World’s Tropical Forests International Year of Forests Symposium Instituto Alexander von Humboldt November 1, 2011 Thomas E. Lovejoy, University Professor Environmental Science and Policy George Mason University Biodiversity Chair. The Heinz Center THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
  2. 30. Dr. Svante August Arrhenius 1859-1927
  3. 31. Source: Wallace Broecker Analysis of a Greenland ice core oxygen isotope proxy
  4. 32. Years before present CO 2 -concentration (ppm) 1750 200 240 280 320 360 160 400 Siegenthaler U et al. (2005) Science 310:1313 Petit JR et al. (1999) Nature 399:429 2007 Currently 385 ppm  Ch Körner CO 2 for the Last 600,000 Years 0 100'000 200'000 300'000 400'000 500'000 600'000
  5. 33. Source: Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, UEA Global temperature record temperature anomaly (degC)
  6. 34. Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Global Carbon Project; Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated) (Avgs.) SRES (2000) aver. growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Observed 2000-2007 3.5% 2006 2005 2007
  7. 35. Signals from nature T HE H . J OHN H EINZ III C ENTER FOR S CIENCE, E CONOMICS AND THE E NVIRONMENT Lara Hansen / WWF Jeremy Little / University of Washington
  8. 36. Earlier flowering date
  9. 37. Kew Magazine, Summer 2007 Climate Change at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
  10. 38. Edith’s Checkerspot <ul><li>Range shift northward and upward during the 20th century </li></ul><ul><li>Most extinctions in south and low elevations </li></ul>
  11. 39. Source: National Arbor Day Foundation Hardiness zones adjusted to warmer climate
  12. 40. Biological Response Phenological changes attributed to recent climate change McCarty (2001) White et al. (2004) National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON)
  13. 41. © WWF-Canon / Michèle D é praz
  14. 42. Increasing number of dry days Source: J.A. Pounds et al 2005
  15. 43. Looking ahead T HE H . J OHN H EINZ III C ENTER FOR S CIENCE, E CONOMICS AND THE E NVIRONMENT Jaan Lepson
  16. 44. Sugar Maple range projections by 5 GCMs with 2 x CO 2 Source: A.M. Prasad and Iverson, L.R: www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/index.html
  17. 45. Elevated night time temperatures magnify bark beetle impact Source: D. Struck 3/1/2006, Washington Post , pA1 ‘ Rapid Warming’ Spreads Havoc in Canada’s Forests Wednesday, March 1, 2006 QUESNEL, B.C. -- Millions of acres of Canada's lush green forests are turning red in spasms of death. A voracious beetle, whose population has exploded with the warming climate, is killing more trees than wildfires or logging.
  18. 46. Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks (1959-2002) Courtesy of Mike Bradley, Canfor Corporation
  19. 47. Courtesy of NOAA/NCAR
  20. 48. 2010 2005 Amazon Rainfall in 2010 and 2005 (deviation from 10-year mean) S. Lewis, P. Brando, D. Nepstad, submitted
  21. 50. Critical thresholds in the Earth system Where local or regional changes may have strong effects on earth system interactions, feedbacks, or teleconnections ?
  22. 51. Science Magazine, November 23, 2007 IPCC Climate Change and Impact Projections
  23. 52. (1) Arctic sea-ice (2) Greenland ice-sheet stability (3) Antarctic ice-sheet stability (4) Major ecosystem disruption Why is a CO 2 target of 450ppm too high ?
  24. 53. What is a “safe” level? James Hansen, et al., 2008 350 ppm
  25. 54. What can be done Adaptation -Revise Conservation Strategies Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations -Reduce and eliminate emissions --revise energy base for society --reduce/eliminate deforestation
  26. 55. Increase natural connectivity to facilitate species movement Adaptation: Revise conservation strategies Minimize climate change impacts by reducing other stresses, e.g., siltation on coral reefs
  27. 56. Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Revise Energy Base for Society
  28. 57. Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations 20% of Annual Emissions come from deforestation
  29. 58. Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2000-2007) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated) 1.5 Pg C y -1 + 7.5 Pg C y -1 Atmosphere 46% 4.2 Pg y -1 Land 29% 2.6 Pg y -1 Oceans 26% 2.3 Pg y -1
  30. 59. Long atmospheric residence times for greenhouse gases
  31. 60. What can be done Lower Atmospheric CO 2 - Restore ecosystems ( biodiversity and carbon ) - Non-biological CO 2 removal
  32. 61. Origin of land plants Expansion of angiosperms Present-day CO 2 The Role of Life Processes
  33. 62. Over the past three centuries, ecosystems have lost 200-250 billion tons of carbon
  34. 63. Planetary Engineering Using Ecosystems CO2 PPM Time 280
  35. 64. The Role of Forests
  36. 65. Photo courtesy USDA NRCS  Restoring Grazing Land
  37. 66. Photos: United States Department of Agriculture—Natural Resources Conservation Service . Modify Agriculture to Build up Soil Carbon
  38. 67. Re-Greening the Emerald Planet

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