La foresta amazónica y el cambio climático - Philip Fearnside

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  • (A and B) Satellite-derived standardized anomalies for dry-season rainfall for the two most extensive droughts of the 21st century in Amazonia. (C and D) The difference in the 12-month (October to September) MCWD from the decadal mean (excluding 2005 and 2010), a measure of drought intensity that correlates with tree mortality. (A) and (C) show the 2005 drought; (B) and (D) show the 2010 drought.
  • Os painéis de 0,5x3,0 metros são colocados na estação chuvosa e retirados no período de estiagem para reduzir os impactos sobre o sub-bosque. A passagem de pessoas é limitada por passarelas de madeira colocadas sobre o solo, para evitar danos pelo transito.
  • La foresta amazónica y el cambio climático - Philip Fearnside

    1. 1. La Foresta Amazónica y el Cambio Climático Philip M. Fearnside Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia – INPA http://philip.inpa.gov.br Instituto Humboldt, Bogotá, Colómbia 24 Agosto 2011
    2. 2. Nat Geogr. map
    3. 6. (a) Valores da revisão de Salati (2001), exceto o último item. (b) Porcentagem em comparação com a vazão média na foz. Fluxos de água na Amazônia Descrição Volume de água (trilhões de m 3 /ano) (a) Comparação com a vazão do rio Amazonas (%) (b) Transporte do Oceano Atlântico para dentro da região pelos ventos alísios 10 ± 1 152% Vazão média do rio Amazonas na foz 6,6 100% Precipitação na bacia hidrográfica do rio Amazonas 15,05 228% Evapotranspiração 8,43 128% Vapor d’água transportado por ventos para outras regiões 3,4 ± 1 52%
    4. 7. Fonte: http://ar.geocities.com/lapaginaderionegroyneuquen/temas/salltej.htm
    5. 9. Domínio: (76,2W – 47,6W; 13,2S – 5,5N) - 184 -184 Correia, 2005 Unidade: 10 6 kg/s 202 mil toneladas de vapor de água por segundo em uma área de aproximadamente 6 milhões de quilômetros quadrados Equivalem a aproximadamente 1 metro de água líquida no ano
    6. 12. Changes in vegetation biomass between the present day and the 2080s – 8 – 5 – 3 – 1 1 3 5 8 kgC/m 2 – 8 – 5 – 3 – 1 1 3 5 8 kgC/m 2 [Hadley Centre, 2000]
    7. 13. Cândido et al., 2007
    8. 14. IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. Chapter 3
    9. 16. IPCC 2007 AR-4, WG-I, p. 779
    10. 17. Cox et al. 2004
    11. 19. Photo by R.I. Barbosa
    12. 20. Cox et al. 2004
    13. 21. Stainforth,2005
    14. 22. ADAPTED FROM HEGERL ET AL., NATURE (2006)
    15. 23. Betts et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
    16. 24. Huntingford et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
    17. 25. Length of dry season Derived from the New et al 2001 dataset
    18. 26. Impact of El Nino Malhi and Wright 2004 Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical forest regions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
    19. 27. Seca de 2005 Photos Greenpeace
    20. 34. Published by AAAS A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009) Fig. 4 Map of linear trends in observed SST (A) and the residual SST (B)
    21. 35. Published by AAAS A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009) Fig. 2 Time series of mixed layer response to dust and stratospheric aerosol forcing (A) and observed SST anomalies (B)
    22. 36. This is especially critical because studies have estimated a reduction in Atlantic dust cover of 40 to 60% under a doubled carbon dioxide climate ( 33 ), which, on the basis of model runs with an equivalent reduction of the mean dust forcing, could result in an additional 0.3° to 0.4°C warming of the northern tropical Atlantic. Evan et al. 2009, pp. 780-781 These calculations suggest that 69% of the recent upward trend in northern tropical Atlantic SST is due to changes in aerosols . 33= Mahowald, N. M., and C. Luo (2003), A less dusty future?, Geophys. Res. Lett. , 30(17), 1903
    23. 37. Fig. 1 (A and B) Satellite-derived standardized anomalies for dry-season rainfall for the two most extensive droughts of the 21st century in Amazonia. S L Lewis et al. Science 2011;331:554-554 Published by AAAS
    24. 38. 10km Fotos: Richard Bierregaard
    25. 40. Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr) Nascimento and Laurance, 2004 Ecol. Appl.;
    26. 42. Painéis Suportes Calhas Drenos Redução de 50-60% da precipitação Experimentos de exclusão de chuvas – simulando el niños de longa duração – Projetos LBA/ESECAFLOR e LBA/SECA FLORESTA
    27. 43. Foley et al. 2007 Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
    28. 46. IPCC, 2007 AR4 WG1 Ch. 10 p. 775
    29. 47. Cox et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
    30. 52. IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. SPM
    31. 53. IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)
    32. 55. Folha de S. Paulo 10/11/09, p. A-4.
    33. 57. http://philip.inpa.gov.br

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