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Trends in the Worldwide HPC Market


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In this video from the HPC User Forum in Milwaukee, Earl Joseph and Steve Conway from Hyperion Research present and update on HPC, AI, and Storage markets.

"Hyperion Research forecasts that the worldwide HPC server-based AI market will expand at a 29.5% CAGR to reach more than $1.26 billion in 2021, up more than three-fold from $346 million in 2016. We define the HPC AI market as a subset of the high-performance data analysis (HPDA) market that includes machine learning, deep learning, and other AI workloads running on HPC servers."

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Trends in the Worldwide HPC Market

  1. 1. Trends in the Worldwide HPC Market September 2017 Earl Joseph, Steve Conway, Bob Sorensen and Mike Thorp
  2. 2. Hyperion HPC Activities – Same As Before! •  Track all HPC servers sold each quarter •  4 HPC User Forum meetings each year •  Publish 85 plus research reports each year •  Visit all major supercomputer sites & write reports •  Assist in collaborations between buyers/users and vendors •  Assist governments in HPC plans, strategies and direction •  Assist buyers/users in planning and procurements •  Maintain 5 year forecasts in many areas/topics •  Developing a worldwide ROI measurement system •  HPDA program (includes ML/DL/AI) •  HPC Cloud usage tracking •  Quarterly tracking of GPUs/accelerators •  Cyber Security
  3. 3. Hyperion Research Overview §  We are fully separated from IDC & Oceanwide •  An IT purge has removed our work & info from IDC records §  All IDC HPC assets, reports, data, etc. have been transferred to Hyperion •  Access to non-HPC data from IDC is also included §  Hyperion is tasked to keep doing 100% of what the IDC HPC team was doing before •  Plus we can add new areas
  4. 4. Worldwide HPC Market Results And Growth Projections 4
  5. 5. The Worldwide HPC Server Market: $11.2 Billion in 2016 5 Departmental ($250K - $100K) $3.1B Divisional ($250K - $500K) $2.3B Supercomputers (Over $500K) $4.1B Workgroup (under $100K) $1.7B HPC Servers $11.2B §  Record revenues §  Strong $250K+ growth §  Low-end decline
  6. 6. 2016 HPC Market By Vendor ($ Millions) © Hyperion Research 6
  7. 7. 2016 HPC Market By Vertical ($ Millions) © Hyperion Research 7
  8. 8. 2016 HPC Market Forecasts ($ Millions) © Hyperion Research 8
  9. 9. Forecast: The Broader HPC Market ($ Millions) 9©Hyperion Research 2017
  10. 10. 10 New HPC Storage Market Results
  11. 11. Hyperion Research Forecast: HPC and External Storage §  The worldwide HPC broader market (servers, storage, software, and repair services) will expand (6.2% CAGR) to more than $30 billion in 2021, up from $22 billion in 2016. §  External HPC storage will grow from $4.3 billion in 2016 to $6.3 billion in 2021 (7.8% CAGR). Note: External HPC storage refers to storage located outside of the server cabinets and can include solid-state, disk, and tape media. © Hyperion Research 2017 11
  12. 12. HPC Storage Market Growth Drivers ■ Modeling & simulation – organic growth: •  More/bigger runs on increasingly powerful HPC systems •  Growth of iterative methods (parametric modeling, stochastic modeling, ensembles) •  New HPC adopters for M&S (e.g., SMEs) § High performance data analysis (including ML/ DL/AI) •  Existing users adding analytics methods •  New commercial users “hitting a wall” with enterprise server technology •  New use cases ■ HPC-in-the-cloud (private, hybrid, public) © Hyperion Research 2017 12
  13. 13. © Hyperion Research 2017 13 HPC External Storage by Vertical
  14. 14. HPC External Storage by Region © Hyperion Research 2017 14
  15. 15. 15 Forecast: HPC-based Machine Learning, Deep Learning & AI
  16. 16. Convergence of HPC Data-Intensive Simulation and Analytics (High Performance Data Analysis) Modeling & Simulation §  Existing HPC users •  Larger problem sizes •  Higher resolution •  Iterative methods •  EP jobs to the cloud (Novartis) §  New commercial users •  E.g., SMEs 16 Advanced Analytics §  Existing HPC users •  Intelligence community, FSI •  Data-driven science/ engineering (e.g., biology) •  Knowledge discovery •  ML/DL, cognitive, AI §  New commercial users •  Fraud/anomaly detection •  Business intelligence •  Affinity marketing •  Personalized medicine ©Hyperion Research 2017 Drivers: •  Competition •  Complexity •  Time Convergence Market (2021) $4.0B servers $2.6B storage $6.6B total
  17. 17. HPDA Analytics New HPC Segments 1.  Fraud and anomaly detection. §  Government (intelligence, cyber security) §  Industry (credit card fraud, cyber security) 2.  Affinity Marketing. §  Discern potential customers' demographics, buying preferences and habits. 3.  Business intelligence. §  Identify opportunities to advance market position and competitiveness 4.  Precision Medicine §  Personalized approach to improve outcomes, control costs 17©Hyperion Research 2017
  18. 18. HPDA As a % of Total HPC Utilization (All Systems) 18©Hyperion Research 2017
  19. 19. Where HPDA Workloads Are Run 19©Hyperion Research 2017
  20. 20. AI: Machine Learning, Deep Learning 20©Hyperion Research 2017 §  Artificial Intelligence (AI): a broad, general term for the ability of computers to do things human thinking does (but NOT to think in the same way humans think). AI includes machine learning, deep learning (a.k.a. cognitive computing) and more minor methodologies. §  Machine learning (ML): a process where examples are used to train computers to recognize specified patterns, such as human blue eyes or numerical patterns indicating fraud. The computers are unable to learn beyond their training and human oversight is needed in the recognition process. §  Deep Learning (DL): an advanced form of machine learning that uses digital neural networks to enable a computer to go beyond its training and learn on its own, without explicit programming or human oversight.
  21. 21. AI/Deep Learning Formative Market MARKET STATUS §  HPC has moved to the forefront of DL/AI research §  Ecosystem (including GPGPUs) formed around social media/Web giants §  DL needs massive data: not available yet in many markets §  Lack of standard benchmarks lengthens sales process §  Need for transparency HPC simulation! §  Lots of time/money being spent to get there 21© Hyperion Research 2017 “The amount of data available today is miniscule compared to what we need for deep learning.” Marti Head, GlaxoSmithKline
  22. 22. Forecast: HPDA Market and ML/DL/AI Methods 22
  23. 23. WW M/L, D/L, & AI Forecasts © Hyperion Research 2017 23
  24. 24. U.S. M/L, D/L, & AI Forecasts © Hyperion Research 2017 24
  25. 25. 25 In Summary
  26. 26. HPC ROI Latest Findings: ROI from HPC is Very High Results indicate high ROI returns resulting from investments in HPC On average, from the latest data: §  $551 dollars on average in revenue per dollar of HPC invested. §  $52 dollars on average of profits (or cost savings) per dollar of HPC invested. 26©Hyperion Research 2017 Extreme Example: • In Oil/Gas • Maximizing oil reservoir production • Profit ROI = $3.75 billion Extreme Example: •  In Finance •  HPC driven underwriting of insurance quotes •  Revenue ROI = $11.6billion
  27. 27. Download Results: 27
  28. 28. §  HPC is still expected to be a growth market •  Growing recognition of HPC’s strategic value •  HPDA, including ML/DL, cognitive and AI •  HPC in the Cloud will lift the sector writ large §  Vendor share positions shifted greatly in 2015 & 2016 and continue to shift •  E.g., HPE acquisition of SGI §  The HPDA market will expand opportunities for vendors Conclusions 28©Hyperion Research 2017
  29. 29. But There are Still Major Customer Pain Points Software is the #1 roadblock •  Better management software is needed •  Parallel software is lacking for most users à Many applications will need a major redesign Storage access time is becoming the #2 pain point •  Areal density has improved much faster than access density Clusters are still hard to use and manage •  System management & growing cluster complexity •  Power, cooling and floor space are major issues •  Storage and data management are becoming new bottle necks •  Lack of support for heterogeneous environment and accelerators … Some good news in that there are new technologies in Big data, accelerators, clouds, etc. 29©Hyperion Research 2017
  30. 30. QUESTIONS? 30