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Colloquium on innovation, high-tech sectors and knowledge space by Sandrine Kergroach

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Sandrine Kergroach, Policy Analyst, of the OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation, presented the Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook.

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Colloquium on innovation, high-tech sectors and knowledge space by Sandrine Kergroach

  1. 1. THE OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 Knowledge Exchange colloquium on Innovation, High-tech sectors and Knowledge Space Sandrine Kergroach OECD, Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation 31 March 2017 Glasgow, United Kingdom 1
  2. 2. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 “What’s new in the field of science, technology and innovation policy? “ International review based on latest policy information and indicators Unique policy questionnaire A 20-year tradition. Every 2 years. New in 2016’s edition: 10-15 year horizon scan Megatrends for STI Key emerging technologies Future research systems 2
  3. 3. ONLINE CONTENT ~ 40 policy profiles Cross-country comparison of key STI policy orientation, instruments and governance Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 3 BOOK and eBOOK Megatrends for STI Future technology trends The future of science systems Recent trends in STI policies International benchmarking and recent national STI policy developments 52 country profiles ONLINE CONTENT STI e-Outlook STI Policy mapping Statistical platform ONLINE INFRASTRUCTURES
  4. 4. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 4 8 Megatrends for STI
  5. 5. 5 Megatrends & Technology Trends for STI Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Urgency of policy action Science and innovation are key
  6. 6. 6 Changing demand for innovation • Ageing societies, areas of population growth (esp. Africa) and a growing middle class (esp. Asia) will impact innovation demand and markets. • Societal shifts in behaviours and expectations are expected as well. Changing supply factors • Materials less abundant => STI for less resource-intensive production and a circular economy. • Different labour profiles required => new STI and complementary skills. • Fast-changing portfolios of productive assets, i.e. new technologies, new practices in management, marketing, datasets (‘big data’) etc. Changing context for R&D • Need for interdisciplinarity, international R&D cooperation, international technology diffusion, public-private partnerships. • BUT greater inter-state competition and insecurity could lead to protectionism, and a slowdown in international R&D cooperation and technology diffusion. What do these challenges mean for STI and policies? Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
  7. 7. 10 Emerging Technology Trends Nanomaterials Additive manufacturing Advanced materials Advanced energy storage tech. Micro and nanosatellites Energy and environment Blockchain Artificial intelligence (IA) Internet of Things (IoT) Big Data and analytics Neurotechnologies Synthetic biology Biotechnologies 7 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Digital
  8. 8. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 10 Emerging Technology Trends 8
  9. 9. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Launch history and projection for nano- and microsatellites, 2009-20
  10. 10. 10 (re)Distributing the benefits • Technological change creates winners & losers. Policy should address distribution effects and ensure inclusive access to new technology-based benefits (e.g. training, competition policy, etc.). • Support to technology diffusion, e.g. through extension services, is often as important as novel technology development. Good policy governance • Emerging technologies carry several risks and uncertainties – how should they be governed? • Addressing issues related to security, privacy, integrity and ethics. • International cooperation is key. Support to public research • Public research plays pivotal roles in underpinning all of these technologies by producing new knowledge and nurturing skills. • Fostering open science to improve efficiency and effectiveness of public R&D. How can we realise the potential of these technologies? Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
  11. 11. 11 Megatrends & Technology Trends for STI Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Capacity of governments to intervene? Competing policy priorities and agendas (financial resources?) Urgency of policy action Science and innovation are key
  12. 12. 12 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 R&D has fallen behind other policy priorities in many countries Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds; OECD National Accounts Database. Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of total government expenditures, 2000 and 2015
  13. 13. 13 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Public R&D budgets are likely to plateau around current ratios Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of GDP Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds.
  14. 14. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Could increasingly generous R&D tax incentives jeopardize our fundamental research? Change in R&D tax costs (% annual growth) and the share of public support going to firms (% point) , 2006-14 or nearest years available Source: Based on OECD R&D Tax Incentive Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/rd-tax-stats.htm, July 2016; OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/msti.htm, June 2016; OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds. There is emerging evidence of more public support going to firms – and away from public research - due to more generous R&D tax incentives More support given to firms (and less to public research) More generous tax concessions
  15. 15. 15 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Public research has shifted towards universities … Public R&D, OECD, % of GDP Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI) Database, June 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/msti. Higher education Government Funding by industry, OECD, USD million 2010 PPP … that are increasingly relying on private funding
  16. 16. 16 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 The trend is poised to last: STI policy is focusing on immediate economic imperatives and policy efficiency gains Source: Based on EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database STI policy priority index, 2016 compared to 2014
  17. 17. 17 Megatrends & Technology Trends for STI Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Capacity of governments to intervene? Competing policy priorities and agendas (financial resources?) Shaping future R&D and innovation policy agendas? Opening science Building international cooperation Urgency of policy action Science and innovation are key
  18. 18. 18 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 More responsible R&I policies encourage a greater intertwining of science and citizen Policy mix for addressing societal challenges Gender balance Building an innovation culture New RRI governance arrangements Percentage of policy initiatives newly introduced, substantially revised or repealed over the period 2014-16 Source: Based on country responses to the EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database
  19. 19. 19 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Open science is on the march Number of papers, 2000-13 Source: Based on Laakso, M. and B.-C. Björk (2012), “Anatomy of open access publishing: A study of longitudinal development and internal structure”, BMC Medicine, Vol. 10, p. 124, http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/124, and website of the Open Access Scholarly Publications Association (OASPA), http://oaspa.org/growth-of-fully-oa-journals-using-a-cc-by-license/.
  20. 20. International knowledge networks are more diverse 20Source: OECD (2013), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013: Innovation for Growth, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2013-en. Internationally co-authored articles Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
  21. 21. 21 Highest expected citation impact of scientific authors by mobility profile Based on the median Scimago Journal Rank (SJR) score of 2013, mobility patterns over 1996-2013 Source: OECD (2015), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2015-en. International mobility is a major channel for knowledge circulation, if not the first Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Returnees Outflows
  22. 22. 22 http://oe.cd/STIOutlook • Global megatrends and societal challenges highlight the need for some big solutions and radical changes, including in our STI policies. • There is a risk of greater protectionism that could threaten future international cooperation for R&D and innovation and international mobility. • At the same time, new and emerging technologies will have a deep impact on economies and societies. Although we can already anticipate their disruption, it is still difficult to know precisely what form and scale this will take. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 • There are serious concerns about declining public funding for R&D and innovation, and the situation could deteriorate further with austerity and ageing societies.
  23. 23. 23 http://oe.cd/STIOutlook Insights on the UK Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Country Profile
  24. 24. 24 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Country Profile Sluggish growth in labour productivity GDP per hour worked, index 2005=100 Source: Based on OECD productivity database. Brexit comes after several years of very sluggish labour productivity growth and raises uncertainty on future economic growth
  25. 25. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Country Profile Cross-country investments in intellectual assets, Gross fixed capital formation, intellectual property products, index 2007=100 Source: Based on the OECD National Accounts Database, July 2016. … Whereas there are signs of levelling off in many countries… … and growing cross-country gaps Divergences across the OECD Intra-European divergences Yet UK investment in knowledge-based capital has increased steadily over the past decade…
  26. 26. 26 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Country Profile Source: OECD (2016), "Germany", in OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_in_ outlook-2016-61-en Business R&D is driven by large domestic firms and foreign affiliates … which R&D has increased substantially over the past decade
  27. 27. 27 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Major focus areas of new Productivity and Competition Plans include: maintaining research excellence, promoting innovation and … Normalised index of performance relative to the median values in the OECD area (index median = 100) Source: OECD (2016), "Germany", in OECD STI Outlook 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_in_outlook-2016-61-en Country Profile
  28. 28. 28 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Source: OECD (2016), "Germany", in OECD STI Outlook 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_in_outlook-2016-61-en Country Profile 28 Normalised index of performance relative to the median values in the OECD area (Index median = 100) … Strengthening the interface between universities and industry.
  29. 29. 29 Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 Promoting R&D in domestic firms and manufacturing industries is a particular challenge for the UK Most relevant policy instruments of funding for business R&D, 2016 Country self-assessment, index (9 = high and increasing relevance to 0 = not used) Source: Based on EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database Country Profile
  30. 30. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 30 Thank you for your attention Please see the participant’s package for further details Contact us at sandrine.kergroach@oecd.org http://oe.cd/STIOutlook https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti/e-outlook

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