Markedskraft - Buying-in flexibility for Intraday Trading from the Neighbours - Felix Buchholz

836 views

Published on

Presentation at the 17th German Norwegian Energy Forum in Berlin 2013

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
836
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
43
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
12
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Markedskraft - Buying-in flexibility for Intraday Trading from the Neighbours - Felix Buchholz

  1. 1. Buying-in Flexibility for Intraday Trading from the Neighbours Why do we need Intraday Flexibility in Germany? Intraday Trading with(out) Borders: Status quo, Restrictions – and the Future. Felix Buchholz
  2. 2. Agenda Renewables – The main driver for intraday trading in Germany Neighbours – Supplying flexibility for (cross-border) intraday trading 2
  3. 3. Agenda Renewables – The main driver for intraday trading in Germany Neighbours – Supplying flexibility for (cross-border) intraday trading 3
  4. 4. Current status of the most important renewable technologies in Germany – wind and photovoltaic. - Joint installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic in 2012: ~ 64 GW - Planned NREAP joint installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic in 2020: ~ 98 GW - Peak demand in Germany: ~ 85 GW Prod = production; Capa = capacity; NREAP = National Renewable Energy Action Plan; data from EUROSTAT and NREAPs 4
  5. 5. Challenges arising from high shares of fluctuating renewables: DA production volatility & ID prognosis corrections. ID prognosis corrections DA forecast Relative error DA production volatility cloud tracking persistence … 4h 3h 2h 1h 0h Prognosis horizon  Basis for capacity markets debate  The rationale for intraday power markets DA = day-ahead; ID = intraday; left picture – http://www.agora-energiewende.de/; right picture – inspired by Dr. Kurz (meteocontrol GmbH) 5
  6. 6. Market design specific reasons for ID trading: “The Sunrise Quarters”. Time Resolution: - - DA auction: 1h (Market coupling standard) ID market: 15min (Balancing power system) PV Production Curve 1 Hour Day-Ahead or Intraday Long - Sell: 30-45min 45-60min Short - Buy: 0-15min 15-30min 4 x 15min DA = day-ahead; ID = intraday; PV = photovoltaic 6
  7. 7. Who is trading the ID prognosis corrections and “The Sunrise Quarters“? ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters” German TSOs Direct marketing companies German TSOs Direct marketing companies ~ 90 % ~ 10 % ~ 90 % ~ 10 % ~ 20 % ~ 80 % TSO = transmission system operator; BNetzA = Bundesnetzagentur (German regulatory authority) 7
  8. 8. Motivations and incentives to participate in the ID market. Direct marketing companies … German TSOs … 1) … are obliged by the balancing group contract to keep their renewable portfolio balanced. 24/7 and with 15min resolution – as emphasized by the BNetzA in a very recent position paper 1) … are forced by law to balance out their renewable production portfolio in the intraday market segment of the EPEX SPOT 2) … reduce their imbalance costs by trading intraday – intraday balancing costs < imbalance costs 2) … are intrinsically motivated to trade prognosis corrections – their primary objective is grid stability TSO = transmission system operator; BNetzA = Bundesnetzagentur (German regulatory authority) 8
  9. 9. Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT – # trades, volumes, prices and timing. (1/5) ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters” # transaction boxplot of hours # transaction boxplot of quarters  PV + Wind = more pot. prognosis errors  The PV gradient causes this pattern ID = intraday; PV = photovoltaic; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013, outliers excluded) 9
  10. 10. Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT – # trades, volumes, prices and timing. (2/5) ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters” Traded volume boxplot of hours Traded volume boxplot of quarters  Typical hourly volumes = 0,5 – 4 GWh  Typical hourly volumes = 0,25 – 1 GWh ID = intraday; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013 , outliers excluded) 10
  11. 11. Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT – # trades, volumes, prices and timing. (3/5) ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters” Price boxplot of hours Price boxplot of quarters  Similar to DA pattern but higher volatility  A closer look is needed – see next page DA = day-ahead; ID = intraday; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013 , outliers excluded) 11
  12. 12. Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT – # trades, volumes, prices and timing. (4/5) “The Sunrise Quarters” – a closer look Volume weighted average prices for quarters  “The Sunrise Quarters” causing a systematic daily price pattern ID = intraday; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013) 12
  13. 13. Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT – # trades, volumes, prices and timing. (5/5) ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters” Median of hourly products Median of quarterly products  Main trading activity close to GC  Nearly same level in hours of sunshine ID = intraday; GC = gate closure; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013) 13
  14. 14. Agenda Renewables – The main driver for intraday trading in Germany Neighbours – Supplying flexibility for (cross-border) intraday trading 14
  15. 15. Fluctuating renewables require intraday flexibility. Who can match the demand? Flexibility in production Imbalances Flexibility in consumption 15
  16. 16. Implicit cross-border trading is a relatively young element of the EPEX SPOT ID market segment. 1 ID prognosis corrections Since 2010 2 ID prognosis corrections 1 2 “The Sunrise Quarters” Since 2013 3 3 “The Sunrise Quarters” ID prognosis corrections Since 2012 “The Sunrise Quarters” EPEX SPOT area; ID = intraday 16
  17. 17. Around 25% of all traded German hourly volumes in September 2013 were cross-border trades. Share of German ID trading – hours Share [%] 10 DE<FR DE<AT 5 DE<CH DE>FR 0 1 DE>AT DE>CH 2 3 Share [%] Share of German ID trading – quarters 3 2 DE<CH 1 DE>CH 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep EPEX SPOT area; ID = intraday; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013) 17
  18. 18. Potentials of direct ID cross-border trading between Germany and the Nordic countries. 1 DK1 cable DE>DK1: ~ 950 MW DE<DK1: ~ 1500 MW 2 DK2 – KONTEK cable 3 1 ~ 550 MW 2 3 Baltic cable ~ 600 MW ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters” ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters” ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters” EPEX SPOT area; Nordpool Spot area; ID = intraday 18
  19. 19. There is room for improvements to push ID cross-border trading between Germany and the Nordic countries. What about implicit cross-border trading via a common trading platform of Nordpool Spot and EPEX SPOT? What about an adaption of the imbalance intervals in the Nordic countries and Germany? Do we need additional cable capacity for ID cross-border trading with the Nordic countries? EPEX SPOT area; Nordpool Spot area; ID = intraday 19
  20. 20. Thanks for your attention! If you have any questions – feel free to contact us. Felix Buchholz Portfolio Management CWE Markedskraft Deutschland GmbH Kurfürstendamm 72 D-10709 Berlin Phone: Mobile: www.markedskraft.de www.mkonline.com +49 (0)30 315 17 19 21 +49 (0)176 63 00 49 10 fbu@markedskraft.com Info@markedskraft.de 20

×