Asia Days 2013 - Market opportunities for small LNG distribution


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Asia Days 2013 - Market opportunities for small LNG distribution

  1. 1. >>> Back to indexMarket Potential for Small Scale LNG Distributionand Use in AsiaIN Information Day / Norshipping6th June 2013 OsloEgil RensvikScience & Technology CounsellorRoyal Norwegian Embassy SingaporeInnovation Norway - South & SouthEast AsiaSource: Gasnor
  2. 2. >>> Back to index>>> Back to indexAsia2IndiaVietnamIndonesiaSingaporeUAESouthKoreaChinaJapanThailandMalaysiaInnovation Norway in AsiaThe PhilippinesTaiwanSri LankaSaudiArabiaIraqIranRussiaMongoliaYemenNepal
  3. 3. >>> Back to index>>> Back to indexInnovation Norway -The Commercial section of theRoyal Norwegian Embassy,presence in Asia• Tokyo• Seoul• Beijing• Shanghai• Hanoi• Bangkok• Kuala Lumpur• Singapore• Dhaka• Delhi• Abu Dhabi• Jakarta
  4. 4. >>> Back to indexAnalysis of LNG Opportunities in Asian Countries• Singapore• Indonesia• China• India• Bangladesh• Philippines• Vietnam4
  5. 5. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Opportunity assessment of the South East Asian market for LNG shipping anddistributionSPONSORING PARTNERS5The shipping segment that first might adoptLNG for propulsion is regional container feedersPasirgudangYangonKuchingKotaKinbaluLabuanTaichingXiamenShekouNanshaPotianakPekanbaruKantangFuzhou LEGENDLNG Marine TerminalsLiquefaction facility status■ Existing■ Proposed■ Under ConstructionRegasification facility status● Existing● Proposed● Under construction5 container feeder lines4 container feeder lines3 container feeder lines2 container feeder lines1 container feeder lineRoutes About 20% ofthe regionalcontainer feedertraffic are up forrenewaltowards 2020
  6. 6. Preparing for The Future –The New LNG Terminal in Singapore
  7. 7. >>> Back to index• The S$1 billion (NOK3,8 billion) LNGTerminal is located on a 30 hectare siteon Jurong Island• Initial Capacity: 3 mill tons/yrCan be expanded to 6 million• Construction starts in 2009• Operational in 2013• Electricity Generating Co. SingaporePower’s subsidiary PowerGas is awardedthe contract to build and run theTerminalJurong Island- Singapore’s Petrochemical ComplexCurrent Situation:80% of electricity is generated using piped natural gas from Malaysia andIndonesiaBalance 20% is from oilSingapore’s First LNG Terminal
  8. 8. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Indonesia LNG Opportunities - Small Scale LNG1st & 2nd May 2013DNV Singapore has performed extensive work with numerous partnerson small scale LNG in Indonesia8Cutting edge project investigatingsmall scale LNG based distributedpowerSmall scale LNG market study andopportunity identificationAssessment of LNG logistics chainin IndonesiaJoint industry project – Feasibilityassessment of the Southeast Asianmarket for LNG shipping anddistributionOpportunity assessment of theSoutheast Asian market for LNGshipping and distribution20102011Results of JIP identifying that LNG could increasingly be used to serve powerneeds in Eastern IndonesiaSources: DNVFigure 1: List of some of the JIP members
  9. 9. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Indonesia LNG Opportunities - Small Scale LNG1st & 2nd May 2013Small scale LNG is an option for supplying growing energy demand inEastern Indonesia LNG is a viable alternative to dieselpower in Eastern Indonesia9BONTANGLNG PlantTANGGUHLNG PlantDONGGI-SENOROLNG PlantMASELA/ABADILNG PlantFSRUNusantara Regas IFSRUPlanned87534261Small scale LNG import terminalsPhase 1 (2012)1. Tg. Batu, Samarinda, East Kalimantan (25 mmscfd)2. Batakan, Balikpapan, East Kalimantan (15 mmscdf)3. Pasanggaran, Bali (25-30 mmscfd)4. Pomala, Kendari, South Sulawesi (25 mmscfd)Phase 2 (2013)5. Mataram, West Nusa Tenggara (15 mmscfd)6. Banajarmasin, South Kalimantan (6 mmscfd)Phase 3 (2015)7. Gorontalo, North Sulawesi (6 mmscfd)8. Halmahera, North Maluku (60 mmscfd)Figure 3: LNG plants and import terminals/FSRUsSources: DNV analysis, Petrominer, Directorate General of Oil and Gas, Pendawa (2011) 8 small scale LNG terminals are setto be constructed by 2015 Currently there is 808 MW of dieselpower generation capacity in 33locations in Eastern Indonesia A small scale LNG milk run carriercould carry LNG cargoes from oneof the existing/planned LNGplants/FSRUsHoegh FSRUARUN LNGPlant
  10. 10. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Indonesia LNG Opportunities - Small Scale LNG1st & 2nd May 2013Cost-benefit analyses on two LNG supply chains in Eastern Indonesia1010Liquefaction plantPower PlantFLNGSmall-scale LNG ship(10,000 – 12,000 m3)LNG storage &regasification (Satelliteplant)LNG truckSmall-scale LNG terminal(Onshore or Offshore)Case Study 1NG pipelineSmall-scale LNG terminal(Onshore or Offshore)Case Study 2Small-scale LNG ship(10,000 – 12,000 m3)Supply chain options have no one size fits all – risks in each scenario varies and solutions have tobe customized to each locality
  11. 11. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Risks and Opportunities of Small Scale LNG Development in Indonesia5/10/2011Case study 1: LNG supplied along a milk-run by a combination ofsmall scale LNG carriers and trucks Milk run scenario: Originates from the Donggi Senoro LNGplant Delivered to 8 locations with small scaleLNG carriers, and/or trucks These power plants are currentlydiesel based and have capacities ofbetween 7 to 56 MW We assume in the future that: 70% coal (as base load), and 30% diesel or LNG (as peak load) Minimise LNG ship terminals, and useLNG trucks within ~100km radius11BitungLopanaWuawuaKendariKayu MerahPoasiaKendariKolakaLuwukGorontaloDonggi SenoroLNG plantLNG truck transfer route Small scale LNG shipping routeSmall scale LNG milk run distribution route from Donggi Senoro LNG plantSources: DNV analysis, Pendawa (2011), Google Earth Pro
  12. 12. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Risks and Opportunities of Small Scale LNG Development in Indonesia5/10/2011Case study 1: Unit costs of supplying LNG are driven by the volumesbeing handled by the receiving terminals The LNG supply costs are largely drivenby the volume going through the jetty &receiving terminal Current fuel costs (excl transport) are: Diesel: US$27.40/mmbtu LNG: ~US$15/mmbtu The trend is for the price difference tocontinue to increase IEA price projections At current prices this is an annualisedsavings of US$3.2 million per year for the6 profitable locations12Cost of supplying small scale LNG to locations in Eastern Indonesia05101520250 50 100 150 200Transportcost($/mmbtu)Volume through jetty (m3/day)Luwuk(no shipneeded)KayuMerahGorontaloKolaka,Poasia Kendari,Wuawua KendariLopana,BitungDifference betweendiesel and LNG (2011)
  13. 13. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in China1313LNG Sector in China:Current Situation and Future Developments
  14. 14. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in China141485 bcm of gas per year is produced from conventionalresources, 7% of which is turned into LNGSources: IEA, CNPC (2009), EIA, Platts, Black and Veatch (2011) China has more than 5950 bcm oftechnically recoverable reservesproducing approximately 85 bcm of gas ayear About 7% of total gas produced in China,mostly those obtained from marginal gasfields, is turned into LNG and transportedto major cities These small to mid scale LNG projectshave grown in the last 5 years, with atleast 13 small to mid scale LNG plantprojects initiatedFigure 1: Conventional gas resources in China
  15. 15. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in China1515China’s LNG imports rose 40% in 2011 from 2010and is expected to increase 3.5 fold from 2011 to 2020 China is expected to import 18.1 bcm ofLNG in 2011, up 40% from 12.8 bcm in 2010 Additionally, LNG demand is expected toincrease 3.5 fold from 2011 levels, reaching64 bcm in 2020 LNG procured through long term supplycontracts is expected to make up 90% oftotal LNG imports by 2015 with the rest metthrough spot purchasesSources: FACTS Global Energy, JP Morgan, BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2011), LNG Journal, Wood Mackenzie (2010)Figure 4: China’s LNG imports in 2010 by country (bcm)0123456bcmChinas LNG Imports in 2010 by Country
  16. 16. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in China161614 LNG terminals and 65 LNG carriers will be needed in Chinaby 2015 to support planned import growth 14 LNG receiving terminals areexpected to be operational by 2015 witha combined capacity sufficient to import>120 bcm of gas per annum There are more than 20 LNG receivingterminals in various phases ofdevelopment, with >90% owned by themajor NOCs (CNOOC, CNPC, Sinopec)or their subsidiaries It is estimated that >65 LNG carriers*will be needed by 2015 to supportplanned import growthSources: The California Energy Commission (2010), InterFax China (2008), China Shipbuilding Economic Research Centre (2011)Figure 5: Existing and planned** LNG import terminals* Refers to all LNG carriers importing LNG to China from overseassources. These carriers may not be made domestically in China.** Note that due to the rapid development of LNG terminals in China,not all planned import terminals may be represented
  17. 17. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in China17Gas-fired power generation capacity has increasedrapidly especially at key economic regions The share of natural gas used in powergeneration over total gas consumptionmore than tripled from 5% in 2005 to18% in 2010 and is expected to grow to21% by 2015 Gas-fired peak load power generation ismost prevalent in the Yangtze riverdelta economic zone and Southeastregion (led by Shanghai andGuangzhou respectively) This coincides with areas that have thehighest number of LNG import terminalsSource: CNPC (2010)Figure 6: Gas-fired power generation capacity by region in 2008
  18. 18. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in China18More than 750 000 road vehicles are already running onCNG or LNG and the shipping sector is looking to convert >750,000 NGVs including CNG- and LNG-fuelled cars, transit buses and taxis Shipping sector now looking to emulatewith the successful use of LNG-fuelledroad vehicles In 2010, a LNG-fuelled tugboat running on70% LNG and 30% diesel was testnavigated along the Yangtze River inHubei province 8 LNG-fuelled demonstration ships arebeing built and will be launchedsimultaneously in the Yangtze River,Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal and thePearl River By 2015, 55 LNG bunkering facilities areexpected to be set up along these threemajor river waterwaysSource: Fortune Oil, China Natural Gas (2010), NGV Journal, Kunlun Energy, Jovo (2011)Figure 7: Number of LNG bunkering facilities along major rivers
  19. 19. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in China1919Faster than expected development of unconventional gasresources may reduce demand for LNG imports beyond 2020Source: Bloomberg, EIA (2010) China’s unconventional and hard-to-extractgas deposits may account for 75% of China’stotal reserves Demand for LNG imports may go down ifcommercial unconventional gas productionexpands faster than expected beyond 2020 The rapid expansion of shale gas production inthe USA and the impact it had on LNGmarkets could repeat itself in China.Figure 8: Shale gas production in the U.S.
  20. 20. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in China20Chinese LNG-related companies have complementary needsto products and services offered by Norwegian companiesSource: DNV
  21. 21. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.Commercial and Strategic Opportunities for LNG in ChinaOpportunities for Norwegian LNG-related companies in China arecentred along two key areas1a) Regasification solutions1b) Small scale LNG distribution1c) LNG as marine fuel1d) LNG bunkering and ship to ship transfer2a) Maritime technologies2b) Rules, standards and regulations212LNGTransportationandDistributionEngineeringActivities andManagement1
  22. 22. >>> Back to indexOpportunities in Vietnam PetroVietnam has set the target to importthe first LNG cargo by: 2015 for Thi Vai 2018 for Son My The importation of LNG will diversify primaryenergy sources used for power production,reduce the dependance on coal and ensurenational energy security.22Source: DNV, 2012
  23. 23. >>> Back to index 23
  24. 24. >>> Back to indexCase Study Vietnam-Small scale LNG milk-route24 Once LNG developments mature in the South, a large scaleLNG receiving terminal facility could be considered for theNorth post 2020, opening up a second opportunity for anLNG FSRU Two LNG receiving terminals at both ends of the countrywould make supplying LNG to growing demand centres alongthe coast using small scale LNG vessels logistically possible In one example scenario, a small scale LNG vessel (20,000m3 – 50,000 m3) originating from the Southern facilitywould drop off LNG cargoes in a milk run fashion at smallscale LNG receiving facilities along the coast before calling atthe Northern facility After all cargoes have been dropped off, the vessel wouldthen call at the Northern facility, pick up fresh LNG cargoesand double back along the same routeSource: DNV, 2012
  25. 25. >>> Back to indexIndian Gas Scenario
  26. 26. >>> Back to index32%10%52%1%5%INDIAOilGasCoalNuclearHydroWorld vs. Indian energy scenario34%24%29%5%7%WORLDOilGasCoalNuclearHydroSource : BP Statistical Review, June 2010
  27. 27. >>> Back to indexLNG Prospects in India• India is the 4th largest Energy consumer after US, China & Russia.• Primary energy consumption of India has more than doubled between1990 and 2011.• The Indian gas market is projected to be one of the fastest growing in theworld over the next two decades: the IEA forecasts gas demand toincrease at 5.4% per annum over 2007-30 reaching 132 billion cubicmeters by 2030.• The power sector is the fastest growing area for energy demand,increasing from 23 percent to 38 percent of total energy consumptionbetween 1999 to 2009.• India and China represented a combined 12% LNG market share in 2012.• The growing appetite for LNG in India and China resulted in 7.7% &12.2% growth in LNG import in 2012• Natural gas currently contributes 8% of total energy consumption and isprojected to grow up to 20% by 2030 in India.Source:- International Energy Agency
  28. 28. >>> Back to indexLNG in India beginning andgrowth• India began importing liquefied natural gas from Qatar in2004 and increasingly relies on imports to meet domesticnatural gas demand gaps.• In 2011, India was the 6th largest LNG importer with over5.3% of the global imports.• Gas consumption has grown at an annual rate of 10 percentfrom 2001-2011• The power sector and fertilizer sector drives the Natural GasDemand in the country. The government has identifiedthese as priority sectors, which ensures that they receivelarger shares of any new gas supply.
  29. 29. >>> Back to indexLNG in India reserves andnetwork• According to the Oil & Gas Journal, India had 43.8 Trillioncubic feet of proved natural gas reserves at the end of2012. About 30 percent of these are onshore reserves, while70 percent are offshore reserves.• The two most important companies operating Indias largegas pipeline system are GAIL and RGTIL. GAIL is a stateowned gas transmission & marketing company having 8000km (Source:- CRISIL) gas transportation infrastructure.Reliance Gas Transportation Infrastructure (RGTIL) is thelargest private sector gas transmission structure.
  30. 30. >>> Back to indexEvolving Energy Mix- IncreaseShare of GASSource:- GAIL
  31. 31. >>> Back to indexDemand Supply Outlook of LNG• Domestic natural gas supply to grow at a CAGR of 5.6 per cent over FY13-15 while gas demand to grow at a CAGR of 17-18 per cent thus aggravatingthe deficit situation.• LNG imports are expected to increase at a CAGR of 19 per cent over FY13-15 but will only partially meet the shortfall, despite huge LNG re-gasificationcapacity additions planned in the next 5 years.• India’s Gas demand supply gap projection necessitating import of LNG.Year 2015 2020 2030Gap indemandand supplyMMTPA14.175 22.05 40.95
  32. 32. >>> Back to indexIndia’s gas infrastructure
  33. 33. >>> Back to indexExisting & Projected LNG Regas Capacity
  34. 34. >>> Back to indexExisting LNG Terminals in IndiaTerminal Partners Capacity Supply source Start updateDahej Petronet LNG (GAIL,ONGC, IndianOil and BPLC (each12.5%), GDFSuez (10%), ADB(5.2%) and privateshareholders (34.8%))10 mtpa Qatar – longterm (7.5mtpa)March2004Hazira Shell (operator, 74%),Total (26%)3.5 mtpa MerchantmodelApril2005Dabhol NTPC, GAIL, Indianbanks15 (28.3%each) and theMaharashtra stateElectricity Board(15%).5 mtpa(1 mtpainitially)Possible:Algeria, Qatar,Australia,Oman and AbuDhabi2010Total 18.5 mtpa
  35. 35. >>> Back to indexUnder Construction LNG Terminalin IndiaTerminal Partners Capacity Supply source Start updateKochi PetronetLNG2.5 mtpa 1.5 mtpa for 20 years fromGorgon, Australia (2014-15). Possibly Qatar, PapuaNew Guinea2012
  36. 36. >>> Back to indexPlanned LNG TerminalsTerminal Partners Capacity Start up dateDahej exp Petronet LNG 2.5 mtpa March 2014Hazira exp Shell, Total 6.5 mtpa TBNKochi exp Petronet LNG 2.5 mtpa 2014Mundra Port GSPC (75%),Adani Group(25%)6.5 mtpa 2012Mangalore ONGC & IOC 5 mtpa 2012Total 23 mtpa
  37. 37. >>> Back to indexPlanned LNG TerminalsTerminal Partners Capacity Start updatePipapav Port Essar Group,Swan Energy,possiblyGSPC GujaratPipavav PortLtd.Intends tobecome apartner5 mtpa 2013Ennore TIDCO, IOC 5 mtpa 2017Haldia Spice Energy 2.5 mtpa 2011Total 12.5 mtpa 37
  38. 38. >>> Back to indexScope for Small LNG Tankers &FSRUs• Demand for natural gas across the country insectors such as town gas and transportation inaddition to Industrial use and imported LNG canbe an important source.• Existing gas grid does not cover the entirecountry, particularly the coastal regions.• Delays in expansion of gas grid owing to right ofway problems & difficult terrain.• Large coastline of about 7500 kms offersopportunity for small LNG carriers and FSRUs.• Construction of small LNG Terminals at Andamanand Sri Lanka under consideration.38
  39. 39. >>> Back to indexOpportunities in India India plans to double its use of natural gas (LNG andCNG) over the next 10 years. Currently, India has two LNG terminals and another twounder construction. Small scale distribution will reduce the need of bigreceiving terminals. Beneficial in regions without any pipeline grids.39
  40. 40. >>> Back to index 40Norwegian LNG-related companies aredistributed across the LNG value chainSource: DNV
  41. 41. >>> Back to index41Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as fuel for shipsNorwegian experienceThe first LNG ferry Glutra 2000Two Supply Vessels 2003 (Dual Fuel)Two supply vessels 2009 (Dual Fuel)Two supply vessels on orderFive LNG car ferries 2007Three LNG car ferries 2009Three LNG car ferries 2010Seven new LNG ferries on orderThree military vessels in operation 2009
  42. 42. MARINTEK 42The LNG ferry at berth
  43. 43. Höegh LNG – a fully integrated floating LNG service providerProduction Shipping Regasification DistributionExplorationLNG carriers LNG regasification vesselsFLNGLNG: Liquefied Natural GasSRV: Shuttle and Regasification VesselFSRU: Floating Storage and Regasification Unit Proprietary FLNG design Principle approval for a FLNGproject in Papua New Guinea Pre-feed agreement for an FLNGat Tamar field in Israel 5 standard carriers in operation 1 carrier acquired with delivery2Q 2012 (“LNG Libra”) Purchase option for 1 carrier withdelivery 2H2013(“STX Frontier”) 2 regasification vessels in operation 3 regasification vessels on order, of which 2 with long-term employmentsecured Options for additional regasification vessels 1 conversion candidate (“LNG Libra”)
  44. 44. Advantages of FSRU’s Can be located near to key offtake loads (powerstations, heavy industry) Scalable – add more vessel based storage withoutregas capacity Does not require large land tracts to be set aside Shallow or deep water options available, allproven mooring solutions Significant savings in time and money Simpler permitting Moveable – can be used to build up market andthen move to new location Base for small scale LNG distribution, nomodifications necessary
  45. 45. Advantages of using FSRU for small scale LNG New FSRU projects are being specified to includesmall scale capability Simple in operational terms Requires minor modification / upgrade to theFSRU FSRU ideal as LNG distribution centre: Offshore (typically) Easy access for small scale vessels Either for point to point or milk run distribution
  46. 46. GasPartners
  47. 47. >>> Back to index* Combined cycle electric power generation plant located on side units(Illust: Typically 220MW on each side unit)* For delivery of both gas and electric power to shore* Range of capacities: e.g. from 5 MW single units – to 2,000 MW gas powerstations w/ several modules47Regas & Power Generation Terminal
  48. 48. >>> Back to indexBergen Group Fosen ShipyardLNG Fuelled Ferry for Fjordline48
  49. 49. >>> Back to index 49Concluding remarks• Norway has demonstrated that small scale LNG production anddistribution is competitive as fuel for ships• LNG is available world vide and can be further distributed to asmall scale market (industry, maritime)• LNG is considered to be the main alternative fuel to fuel oils.• Asia will be the new large market for Small Scale distributionand Use of LNG.
  50. 50. >>> Back to index50Thank you for your attentionEgil Rensvik@Innovationnorway.noSingapore