Is Europe prepared for the German Energiewende Auke Lont

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German Norwegian Energy Forum
Conference 2012 in Berlin

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Is Europe prepared for the German Energiewende Auke Lont

  1. 1. Is Europe preparedfor the GermanEnergiewende?Berlin 23 October,Auke Lont, CEO Statnett SF
  2. 2. What is the Energiewende? Germanys future electricity mix after the nuclear phase outSource & illustration: The Energiewende – Germanys gamble (The Ofxord Institute for Energy Studies, Buchan (2012)) 
  3. 3. What have we seen so far?Source: http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/
  4. 4. What have we seen so far?Source: http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/
  5. 5. Interaction between political framework, technology and the market… Technology …drives progressMarket Political  framework
  6. 6. The future is uncertain…Source: EPIA (2011): "Solar Photovoltaics Competing in the Energy Sector", IEA (2010): Projected Costs of Generating Electricity – 2010 Edition, NREL (2012) ‐ IEA Wind Task 26: The Past And Future Cost Wind Energy. 
  7. 7. …but electric Electricitys share (%) of energy consumption in the EUSource and Illustration: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050
  8. 8. Therefore we need a stronger grid – and more interconnectors
  9. 9. But system stability and costs are already under pressure… Reduced quality of frequency … ....leads to increased system costs
  10. 10. …and costs may rise due to conflicting targets and means Grid investments and installed capacity under two policy scenarios in EU Energy Roadmap 2050 2500 2500 Euro billions total grid investment 2000 2000 GW installed capacity 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 Current policies High RES Network investments 2011 ‐ 2050 Installed power capacity 2050Source: EU Road Map 2050
  11. 11. The market is needed to realize theenergy and climate goals for 2050 Until new infrastructure  is in place, congestion  management, such as  price zones, will play an  important role New mechanisms may  undermine the market – e.g. national capacity  markets
  12. 12. The way forward Technology "Stay the course"  "Trust the market" "Technology neutrality"Market Political  framework
  13. 13. Europe – towards 2050
  14. 14. Security of supply in NorwayPower flows during the coldestday ‐ 6th January 2010
  15. 15. Energy transition in DenmarkElectricity consumption, generation og transmission to Norway 6th og 7th of October 2010 Electricty  consumption  Jutland Wind power  generation Jutland Transmission  Jutland ‐ Norway TV Coffee Heading for 50 % wind power in 2020
  16. 16. The European energycommunity towards 2050 - A possible scenario Demand side almost fully  electrified Considerable electricity  trade between countries Natural gas – supporting  renewables Oil – of less importance Germany in the driving seat

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