Dr. Peter Aderhold: Tourism Demand

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Dr. Peter Aderhold: Tourism Demand

  1. 1. Dr. Peter Aderhold Büro TourismusForschung + Planung Main results from the German Reiseanalyse 2012 (RA 2012) and RA online 11/2011 regarding Tourism Demand on the German Market for Norway Dr. Peter Aderhold © Mai 2012 Dieses Dokument ist Teil einer Präsentation und ohne die mündlichen Erläuterungen unvollständig.Dr. Peter Aderhold
  2. 2. Content  Development of the German market in general  Market position of Norway 2012 Analysis of Noway’s market potential on the German market  Analysis of interested holiday maker for Noway  Selected aspects of potential holiday maker for Norway Main results of special analysis on „Nature holiday“Dr. Peter Aderhold
  3. 3. Reiseanalyse 2012: Methode  7.703 personal face-to-face interviews in Jan./Febr. 2012  about 1.500 sample-points  in private households  Random-Stichprobe  Representative for German speaking population of 14 years and older (70,33 Mio. = 100%)  since RA 2011 also including German speaking foreigners living in Germany  Length of interview: Ø 60 minutes  Supplemented by „RA online“ - 2.000 + 2.500 online-Interviews - in Mai + Nov. 2011 - 14 to 70 yearsDr. Peter Aderhold
  4. 4. Development of the German market in the view of Norwegian statistics Registrered nights and arrivals of German holiday maker (mio.) 2 1,74 1,661 1,69 1,68 1,632 1,586 1,595 1,5 1 0,514 0,527 0,544 0,496 0,527 0,629 0,621 0,5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Tyske gaestedoegn Tyske Ankomster Nights in commercial registrered hotels etc. 2011: 1,6 mio. Number of arrivals of German tourists 2011: 621 000 Stagnation auf dem deutschen Markt ? Attention: not covering all tourists and their accomodation !!!Dr. Peter Aderhold
  5. 5. Selected data on the Development of the German holiday market in generalDr. Peter Aderhold
  6. 6. Development of holiday propensity Share of Germans (14 years +) taking per year at least one holiday of at least 4 nights/5 days % 90 80 78 76,2 70 74,8 60 50 40 Stability – or stagnation – despite of 30 economic ups and downs 20 24 10 0 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 11Dr. Peter Aderhold
  7. 7. Development of number of holidays (in mio.) Since 1989 including East Germans, since 2011 also including German speaking foreigners living in Germany 80 Total holidays 69,51 m 70 up to 1989 western Germany only→ 60 Additional holidays 15,91 m 50 40 30 Main holidys 53,60 m 20 10 0 1971 1980 1995 Main holidays Additional holidaysDr. Peter Aderhold
  8. 8. Development of share of holiday abroad/in Germany % 100 Germany 85% 80 Abroad 69% 60 40 Germany 31% 20 Effect of Abroad 15% reunification 0 1954 1960 1990 2011 Balance achieved between travel abroad (70%) and in Germany (30%), but changes in between destinationsDr. Peter Aderhold
  9. 9. Development of frequency of travel % 100 18 13 32 80 44 25 60 36 36 40 32 62 20 46 24 32 0 1972 1982 1992 2011 frequent traveller occasional traveller infrequent traveller Increasing share of frequent travellers leads to stability of demandDr. Peter Aderhold
  10. 10. Holiday propensity and age % 100 80 60 2011 40 1989 20 1979 1970 0 14 - 19 20 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60 - 69 70+ Growth of demand during last 10 – 20 years result of increasing holiday activities of 60 + generation and increasing number of 60+Dr. Peter Aderhold
  11. 11. Holiday propensity and social strata Holiday propensity % 91% 100 80% 33 15 56% 50 8 58 65 48 0 Upper Medium Lower Main holiday Additional holiday (Increasing) Gape of society also with regard to travellingDr. Peter Aderhold
  12. 12. Norways market position on the German market in 2011 nearly unchangedDr. Peter Aderhold
  13. 13. Norway 2009-2011 with 2.9%markedshare ranking no 18 Spanien 24,6 Italien 16,8 Österreich 15 Türkei 13,3 Frankreich 8,2 Kroatien 6,5 Griechenland 6,4 Niederlande 6,2 Dänemark 5,5 Dänemark Nr. 9: 5,5% Polen 4,2 Schweiz 4,2 Ägypten 3,8 Tschech. Rep. 3,4 USA 3,3 Asien 3,2 Großbritannien 3,2 Ungarn 3,1 Norwegen 2,9 Norwegen Nr. 18: 2,9% Portugal 2,7 Schweden 2,4 Scheden Nr. 20: 2,4% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30Dr. Peter Aderhold
  14. 14. Norway 2012-2014 with 11% marked potential ranking no 12 … as in the years before Spanien 41,1 Italien 31,4 Türkei 26,5 Österreich 25,9 Ranking Frankreich 19,3 Griechenland 18,8 Potential no 12 Kroatien 15,9 Ungarn 15,2 Markedsshare no. 18 Dänemark 14 Dänemark Nr. 9: 14% Schweiz 13,1 Niederlande 11,8 Indication for Norwegen 11,5 Norwegen Nr. 12: 12% opportunities Polen 11,3 Portugal 11,3 Schweden 11,1 Scheden Nr. 15: 11% Ägypten 10,8 Asien 10,7 USA 8,7 Großbritannien 8,7 Tschech. Rep. 6,5 0 10 20 30 40 50Dr. Peter Aderhold
  15. 15. Market potential of holiday regions 2005/2012 Development of market potential from 2005-07 to 2012-14 (% ) +15% 2005-07 80 70 +5% +36% 2012-14 60 60 53 61 +13% 57 +16% +5% - 8% 40 34 29 39 24 22 30 20 26 25 21 0 d r n ee . a t-E a a la e p op op m l ch ie ro es el ur -Z r u ts Eu itt - /W -E -E rn eu .M d- d Fe st D el or Sü O -E itt er N M er nt ss ru Au ie H Northern Europe stagnating at about 20% market potentialDr. Peter Aderhold
  16. 16. Keyfigues Norway RA 2009/RA 2010/RA 2011 (m) 10 8,1 8 6,9 6 4 2 2 1,2 0,5 0 N last 3 years N last year N pot. Total N pot. Hard N pot. Soft RA 2010 (Mio.) RA 2011 (Mio.) RA 2012 (Mio.) N last 3 Norway N-pot N-pot N-pot years last year * total hard soft RA 2010 (m.) 2,1 (0,6) 8,56 1,2 7,3 RA 2011 (m.) 1,9 (0,6) 8,39 1,4 7,0 RA 2012 (m.) 2,0 (0,5) 8,1 1,2 6,9 2010/12 (m 2,0 (0,6) 8,2 1,2 7,0 •Last year figures statistical unsecure dataDr. Peter Aderhold
  17. 17. Interest for Norway 4 times as big as volume of holiday makers Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years 2,9% (2,0 mio.) 11,5% (8,1 million) of the German population took of the German population plan a at least one holiday in Norway holiday in Norway within the next during the last 3 years 3 years 2012-14 “relatively certain” or at least generally consider a holiday in Norway Interest for Norway 4 times as big as volume of holiday makers  Opportunities for marketing !Dr. Peter Aderhold
  18. 18. Soft potential 5 times as big as hard potential Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years 2,9% (2,0 mio.) 11,5% (8,1 million) of the German population took of the German population plan a at least one holiday in Norway holiday in Norway within the next during the last 3 years 3 years 2012-14 “relatively certain” or at least generally consider a holiday in Norway 15% (1,2 Mio.) 85% (6,9 Mio.) ‘Hard Norway potential” ‘Soft Norway potential” Plan relatively certain a holiday in Norway Consider a holiday in Norway 2012-2014 2012-2014Dr. Peter Aderhold
  19. 19. Large NEW potential opens market opportunities Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years 2,9% (2,0 mio.) 11,5% (8,1 million) of the German population took of the German population plan a at least one holiday in Norway holiday in Norway within the next during the last 3 years 3 years 2012-14 “relatively certain” or at least generally consider a holiday in Norway 13% (1,0 mio.) 87% (7.1 mio.) ‘Potential repeater of Norway” ‘NEW potential” “Interest YES + experience YES” “Interest YES + experience NO”Dr. Peter Aderhold
  20. 20. Knowledge of Norway from previous holidays (%) Holiday in Norway before Holiday in Norway 2009-2011 45 40 42 42 41 35 35 30 25 20 15 10 13 5 9 0 N 2009 N 2010 N 2011 Pot total hard pot soft pot About 40% of all actual Norway-tourists from Germany have had holiday before, abouot 60% are „unexperienced“ Norway-guests About 15% of all potential Norway-guests from Germany have been in Norway before, 85% no previous experience („new potential“)Dr. Peter Aderhold
  21. 21. Interest to take holiday in Norway 2012-14 (%) – hard and soft potential 120 100% 100 80 51% 50% 60 85 40 14 30 20 36 21 15 0 N 2009-2011 N 2011 N 2012-14 hard potential soft potential About 50% of all actual Norway-tourists from Germany have interest to visit Norway on a holiday again (potential repeater)Dr. Peter Aderhold
  22. 22. Desctiption of the market potential for Norway (aim group) Comparison Population total Norway holiday maker 2009-2011 Potential Norway holiday maker 2012-2014 (hard p.)Dr. Peter Aderhold
  23. 23. Structure in accordance to age, income and education (%) Zusammensetzung Bev. and Norway 2009-11 (%) 60 52 50 42 44 38 37 40 31 30 25 20 12 11 10 7 0 14-29 30-39 40-59 60+ u. EK m. EK o. EK Haupt Real Abi+ Population total Norway 2009-2011 80% over 40/no children in household - medium or high income - good educationDr. Peter Aderhold
  24. 24. Structure in accordance to life cycle More than 70% 40+ travelling 35 without children 31 30 26 25 20 15 12 10 8 7 7 8 5 3 0 . . 6 3 . . ch ch to -1 ch ch le no o 6 no o p ne d/ d /n up . / /n ou al o rie rie i ld ch ri ed ne + c + ar ar ch ith ar al o 60 60 nm /m .+ w m 60 9/ u 39 m ily 60 0- 3 u. fa fa m 0- 4 u. 4 Population Norway 2009-11Dr. Peter Aderhold
  25. 25. Structure in accordance to social strata 60 47 50 42 40 52 30 20 23 25 12 10 0 Upper Medium Lower Population Norw ay 2009-11 Norway holiday maker are belonging to upper (42%) and medium (47%) social strate (90%)Dr. Peter Aderhold
  26. 26. Structure in accordance to Nielsen-regions 45 42 40 35 30 25 28 19 18 20 22 14 21 15 16 10 14 7 5 0 N I SH, HH, NS, B N II NRW N IIIA H, RhPf N IIIB+IV BW, Bay, N V - VII gl.Øst-T., Saar Berlin Population Norway 2009-11Dr. Peter Aderhold
  27. 27. Description of actual and potential Norway holiday maker Interest in alternative holiday destinations General holiday motivation/expectation Interest in types of holidayDr. Peter Aderhold
  28. 28. Alternative holiday destinations of potential Norway tourists 2012-2014 (%) Norway 15 85 Germany 34 36 70% Sweden 6 58 66% Spain 19 45 64% Denmark 7 54 61% plan relatively certain Italy 14 41 55% consider 0 20 40 60 80 100Dr. Peter Aderhold
  29. 29. Bevölk . Norway Index General holiday motivation (top 10) Hard pot. % % % Relaxation, no stress 66 77 117 Recuperate 59 71 120 Enjoy nature (RA 2011: 55/79/140) 50 68 136 Escape from daily routine 65 66 102 Sun, warmth, good whether 67 59 88 Feel free 55 58 105 New impressions 41 62 151 Travel around, be on the move 36 52 144 Get to know other countries 33 55 166 New experiences 40 49 122 Healthy climate 43 49 113Dr. Peter Aderhold
  30. 30. Experience 2009 – 2011 with types of holiday (%) 60 56 Population 2009-11 50 45 Norway 2009-11 40 35 30 29 30 23 24 17 19 18 20 16 10 8 9 7 10 2 0 an w e p re ng se e ur tri av no t iv tu ui nt ki d ar rs Ac Na al Cr un ve C te W Ad p/ Ro in m W Ca Norway guests significant more interested in nature and active orientated holidaysDr. Peter Aderhold
  31. 31. Interest 2012 – 2014 with types of holiday (%) 70 Population 2012-14 59 60 51 Norway 2012-14 50 44 42 38 40 35 35 35 34 30 30 21 23 14 17 15 17 20 10 0 an w e p re ng se e ur tri no av t iv tu ui nt ki d ar rs Ac Na al Cr un ve C te W Ad p/ Ro in m W Ca Norway guests significant more interested in nature and active orientated holidaysDr. Peter Aderhold
  32. 32. Main results with regard to internet access and usage of internet on base of der RA 2012 face-to-face (n = 7703) und der RA online 11/2011 (n = 2016)Dr. Peter Aderhold
  33. 33. Access to internet and experience for information and booking in tourism Base: Population = 100% % Jan 01 +135% Jan 04 80 73 Jan 08 70 70 Jan 11 55 Jan 12 60 +236% 49 50 40 +725% 33 29 30 31 20 10 15 4 0 Access to internet Experience with info Experience with bookingDr. Peter Aderhold
  34. 34. Norway holiday makers experience with internet (RA 2012) Internet-Erfahrung Norwegen-Urlauber (in %) 2012 Populati Norway holiday Norway pot. on 2011 2012-14 % % % Access to internet 73 83 87 Related to population (total) Experience with information (population) 55 72 73 Experience with booking (population) 33 52 47 Related to people with access Experience with info (onliner) 75 87 84 Experience with booking (onliner) 45 63 54Dr. Peter Aderhold
  35. 35. Using the internet for getting information about … (all people using the internet/Norway 2009-11) Information in the internet about ... 90 82 80 all 71 70 70 Norway 2009-11 69 60 60 64 60 49 50 49 37 40 30 40 29 30 20 26 25 19 10 0 ce n ot er n io r tio n ht sp i ca f pr ai at of ig a Tr e tin l od of Fl or ta th en s at om on on de er R ris cc op y es a pa A id it i ur om ol iv To H ct C ADr. Peter Aderhold
  36. 36. Using the internet for booking of … (all people using the internet/Norway 2009-11) Using the internet for booking of ... 45 39 40 total 35 Norway 2009-11 30 27 25 33 24 25 21 20 23 17 21 15 19 10 13 10 5 0 n ur t r ke tio n ht ca to ai ig tic a Tr l od ge Fl ta ry en ka om t En R c cc Pa ADr. Peter Aderhold
  37. 37. Main results of special analysis of Nature holiday Expectations with regard to nature holiday on the base of RA 2012 face-to-face (n = 7703)Dr. Peter Aderhold
  38. 38. Expectation on nature holiday (Norway holiday maker ++) Must be fulfilled at nature holiday Population Norway 2009-11 Index % % Enjoy nature 47 62 132 Move around in free nature 40 59 148 Holiday in healthy climate 37 48 130 Good healthy meals 32 43 134 Experience untouched nature 24 31 130 Visit natural nature-attractions 18 26 144 Learn something about nature 13 24 185 Accomodation in the middle of nature 13 22 169 Ecological holiday, environmental 12 17 142 Mondey stays in the region 10 15 150 Meet people with interest in nature 11 15 136Dr. Peter Aderhold
  39. 39. Expectation on nature holiday (Norway holiday maker +) Must be fulfilled with nature holiday Population Norway 2009-11 Index % % Relaxation and recreation 45 54 120 Rest, do nothing 39 44 113 Observe animals in natural sourrounding 15 17 113 Nature parks 13 14 108 Natur attractions such as nature museums 9 9 100 Contact to animals 9 5 55 Don‘t make nature holiday 30 3 10Dr. Peter Aderhold
  40. 40. My holiday should be as ecological as possible and take consideration to natural resources and environment (agreement/disagreement in %) 50 41 40 37 42 30 22 31 20 25 10 0 completely neutral completely agree/agree disagree/agree Population Norway 2009-11Dr. Peter Aderhold
  41. 41. In case of questions to table and graphs: aderhold@aderhold.dkDr. Peter Aderhold
  42. 42. Dr. Peter Aderhold
  43. 43. Fundus not used chartsDr. Peter Aderhold
  44. 44. Analysis of actual and potential Norway holiday maker Norw Norw N 2012-14 N 2012-14 N 2012-14 2009-11 2011 Pot. total hard pot. soft pot. Person in mio. 2,0 0,45 8,1 1,20 6,9 % % % % % N 2009-2011 100 100 (12) 13 (32) 35 (9) 9 N 2012-14 NEW potential (88) 87 (68) 65 (91) 91 N 2012-14 Potential total (55) 51 (62) 50 100 100 100 N 2012-14 Hard potential (22) 21 (42) 36 (16) 15 N 2012-14 soft potential (32) 30 (19) 14 (84) 85 First time Norway (59) 58 Holiday in N before (41) 42 NEW potential = interest for N 2012-14, but no holiday in N 2009-2011; (RA 2011 data)Dr. Peter Aderhold
  45. 45. Structure in accordance to age, income and education (%) Zusammensetzung Bev./N 2009-11 und N 2012-14 hartes P. (%) 60 52 50 45 46 40 36 32 28 30 22 20 14 13 12 10 0 14-29 30-39 40-59 60+ u. EK m. EK o. EK Haupt Real Abi+ Population total Norway 2009-2011 Norway 2012-2014 hard pot.Dr. Peter Aderhold
  46. 46. Structure in accordance to social strata 60 50 50 47 42 41 52 40 30 20 23 25 12 9 10 0 Upper Medium Lower Population Norw ay 2009-11 Norw ay 2012-14 hard pot. Norway holiday maker are belonging to upper (40%) and medium (50%) social strate (90%)Dr. Peter Aderhold
  47. 47. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday Population. Norway Population. Norway Experience Experience Interest Interest 2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot % % % % Nature (2012-11) 22-30 43-56 29-38 51-59 Adventure 23 45 30 51 Active 17 35 21 44 Walking 9 18 17 35 Winter snow 7 16 15 35Dr. Peter Aderhold
  48. 48. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday Population. Norway Population. Norway Experience Experience Interest Interest 2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot % % % % Round trip 10 29 23 42 Cruise 2 19 14 35 Health 6 10 18 29 Culture 6 10 13 25Dr. Peter Aderhold
  49. 49. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday Population. Norway Population. Norway Experience Experience Interest Interest 2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot % % % % Holiday appartment 29 38 54 71 Holiday home 15 26 37 60 Camping total 8 24 17 34 Caravan 3 6 8 28 Mobile home 3 9 8 20 Tent 4 10 8 19 Coach 12 24 20 24Dr. Peter Aderhold
  50. 50. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday Population. Norway Population. Norway Experience Experience Interest Interest 2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot % % % % Nature (2012-11) 22-30 43-56 29-38 51-59 Adventure 23 45 30 51 Active 17 35 21 44 Walking 9 18 17 35 Winter snow 7 16 15 35Dr. Peter Aderhold
  51. 51. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday Population. Norway Population. Norway Experience Experience Interest Interest 2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot % % % % Round trip 10 29 23 42 Cruise 2 19 14 35 Health 6 10 18 29 Culture 6 10 13 25Dr. Peter Aderhold
  52. 52. Experience with + interest in special types of holiday Population. Norway Population. Norway Experience Experience Interest Interest 2009-2011 2009-11 2012-2014 Potenzial 2012-14 Pot % % % % Holiday appartment 29 38 54 71 Holiday home 15 26 37 60 Camping total 8 24 17 34 Caravan 3 6 8 28 Mobile home 3 9 8 20 Tent 4 10 8 19 Coach 12 24 20 24Dr. Peter Aderhold
  53. 53. Structure in accordance to life cycle More than 60% 40+ travelling 35 without children 30 28 25 23 20 15 15 9 9 10 7 5 5 5 0 . . 6 3 . . ch ch -1 ch ch le no no to o ne d/ up 6 /n /n o up al o d/ . ed ne co rie rie hi ld ch ri + + ar ar c ith ar al o 60 60 nm /m .+ w m 60 9/ u 39 m ily 60 0- 3 u. fa fa m 0- 4 u. 4 Population Norway 2009-11 Norway 2012-14 hard pot.Dr. Peter Aderhold
  54. 54. Structure in accordance to Nielsen-regions 45 40 38 35 30 25 28 20 18 18 17 22 21 15 16 10 10 14 5 0 N I SH, HH, NS, B N II NRW N IIIA H, RhPf N IIIB+IV BW, N V - VII gl.Øst-T., Bay, Saar Berlin Population Norway 2009-11 Norway 2012-14 hard pot.Dr. Peter Aderhold

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