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Knowable Future


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A description of the concept of the knowable future with examples.

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Knowable Future

  1. 1. The Knowable Future Paul Schumann UT Quest October 29, 2002
  2. 2. Topics <ul><li>Uncertain Present </li></ul><ul><li>Knowable Future </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting Methods </li></ul><ul><li>Future Forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Summary </li></ul>
  3. 3. Uncertain Present
  4. 4. Knowable Future <ul><li>Demographic </li></ul><ul><li>Sociopolitical </li></ul><ul><li>Technological </li></ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul>
  5. 5. Forecasting Methods <ul><li>Surveillance </li></ul><ul><li>Trend Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Expert Opinion </li></ul><ul><li>Integrative </li></ul>
  6. 6. Future Forecast <ul><li>First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860) </li></ul><ul><li>Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950) </li></ul><ul><li>Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020) </li></ul>
  7. 7. Economic Maturation of Technology <ul><li>Nonproductive (25 years) </li></ul><ul><li>Counter Productive (25 years) </li></ul><ul><li>Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years) </li></ul>
  8. 8. The Real Costs of Information Technology
  9. 9. Information Technology Source: Jeremy Greenwood, The Third Industrial Revolution
  10. 10. Demographic <ul><li>Population Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Generational Homogenuity </li></ul><ul><li>Multiculturalism </li></ul>
  11. 11. Population Growth
  12. 12. Age Distribution Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Education in America 2000 - 2020
  13. 13. Age and Violent Crime Source: OJJDB Statistical Briefing Book
  14. 14. Violent Crimes Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
  15. 15. US Population (2000)
  16. 16. US Population (2020)
  17. 17. US Population (2100)
  18. 18. Sociopolitical <ul><li>Openness </li></ul><ul><li>Gender Equity </li></ul><ul><li>Decentralization </li></ul><ul><li>Pluralism </li></ul><ul><li>Paradoxical </li></ul><ul><li>Non-Career Lives </li></ul>
  19. 19. Technological <ul><li>Information </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal Devices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless Digital </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Open Source Wars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New Software Applications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Embedded Computers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Genomics </li></ul><ul><li>Nanomachines </li></ul>
  20. 20. Economic <ul><li>Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Service Based </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual Integration </li></ul><ul><li>Glocality </li></ul><ul><li>Games </li></ul>
  21. 21. Real Gross Domestic Product
  22. 22. Nature of Work Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Education in America 2000 - 2020
  23. 23. Summary <ul><li>Strengths </li></ul><ul><li>Weaknesses </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Threats </li></ul>
  24. 24. Central Texas Chapter World Future Society <ul><li>Contribute to a reasoned awareness of the future and its impact on Central Texas with emphasis on the study of the future of Central Texas and assessment of findings, without advocating particular ideologies or engaging in political activities. </li></ul><ul><li>Advance serious and responsible investigation and assessment of the future. </li></ul><ul><li>Promote the development of methods for the study of the future. </li></ul><ul><li>Increase public understanding and assessment of future-oriented studies. </li></ul><ul><li>Facilitate communication and cooperation among organizations and individuals interested in studying or planning for the future. </li></ul><ul><li>Learn to become a better futurist. </li></ul><ul><li>Network with diverse people interested in the future. </li></ul>
  25. 25. Paul Schumann <ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>(512) 302-1935 </li></ul><ul><li>Glocal Vantage, Inc. </li></ul><ul><li>PO Box 26947 </li></ul><ul><li>Austin, TX 78755-0947 </li></ul>