Forecasting Technological Change (4)

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Part four of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers the integrative techniques.

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Forecasting Technological Change (4)

  1. 1. Forecasting Technological Change Session 4: Integrative Techniques Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09
  2. 2. Sessions <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Trend Analysis Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Expert Opinion Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Integrative Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Closing </li></ul>06/07/09
  3. 3. Sessions <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Trend Analysis Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Expert Opinion Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Integrative Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Closing </li></ul>06/07/09
  4. 4. 4. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Market Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical Models </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Map </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Road Maps </li></ul>06/07/09
  5. 5. 4. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Market Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical Models </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Map </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Road Maps </li></ul>06/07/09
  6. 6. SWOT <ul><li>Internal </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strengths </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Weaknesses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>External </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Threats </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
  7. 7. SWOT (cont.) <ul><li>Primarily a way to collect and display information to make a strategic decision </li></ul><ul><li>Can be used in </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Groups </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Survey </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interview </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Individual </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
  8. 8. SWOT (cont.) <ul><li>Scaleable </li></ul><ul><li>Simplicity </li></ul><ul><li>Low cost </li></ul><ul><li>Flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborative </li></ul><ul><li>Quickness </li></ul><ul><li>Integratable </li></ul>06/07/09
  9. 9. SWOT Suggestions <ul><li>Be comprehensive </li></ul><ul><li>Manage group dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Keep the thinking straight </li></ul><ul><li>Fight for clarity </li></ul>06/07/09
  10. 10. 4. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Market Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical Models </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Map </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Road Maps </li></ul>06/07/09
  11. 11. Strategic Market Analysis <ul><li>A logical way to structure a forecast program and integrate the results of individual forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Provides a way to examine interactions </li></ul><ul><li>Can be used as a tool to facilitate groups, surveys or interviews; or a tool to manage a forecasting effort </li></ul>06/07/09
  12. 12. A Market 06/07/09 Customers Competitors Technologies Sociopolitical Economic Demographic Scientific Opportunity Threat
  13. 13. Customers <ul><li>Present </li></ul><ul><li>Potential </li></ul><ul><li>Possible </li></ul>06/07/09
  14. 14. Competitors <ul><li>Direct </li></ul><ul><li>Indirect </li></ul><ul><li>Structural </li></ul>06/07/09
  15. 15. Technologies <ul><li>Embedded </li></ul><ul><li>Supportive </li></ul><ul><li>Enabling </li></ul>06/07/09
  16. 16. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Basics </li></ul><ul><li>Driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Customer needs </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive responses </li></ul><ul><li>Technological capabilities </li></ul>06/07/09
  17. 17. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Basics </li></ul><ul><li>Driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Customer needs </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive responses </li></ul><ul><li>Technological capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Identify and define the market </li></ul><ul><li>Select a time frame </li></ul><ul><li>Identify and describe questions to be answered or decisions to be made </li></ul>06/07/09
  18. 18. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Basics </li></ul><ul><li>Driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Customer needs </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive responses </li></ul><ul><li>Technological capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Identify and describe the driving forces for change </li></ul><ul><li>Look for positive or negative interactions </li></ul>06/07/09
  19. 19. Driving Forces 06/07/09 Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic
  20. 20. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Basics </li></ul><ul><li>Driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Customer needs </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive responses </li></ul><ul><li>Technological capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Identify and describe customers </li></ul><ul><li>Determine present needs </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast future needs </li></ul>06/07/09
  21. 21. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Basics </li></ul><ul><li>Driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Customer needs </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive responses </li></ul><ul><li>Technological capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Identify and describe competitors </li></ul><ul><li>Describe present strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast future strategies </li></ul>06/07/09
  22. 22. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Basics </li></ul><ul><li>Driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Customer needs </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive responses </li></ul><ul><li>Technological capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Identify and describe technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Describer present capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast future capabilities </li></ul>06/07/09
  23. 23. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Interaction with driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Interaction with each other </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesis </li></ul>06/07/09
  24. 24. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Interaction with driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Interaction with each other </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesis </li></ul><ul><li>Examine and describe the interactions of the driving forces with forecasted customer needs, competitive responses and technological capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Revise forecast as indicated </li></ul>06/07/09
  25. 25. Impacts of Driving Forces 06/07/09 Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Customer Needs Competitive Strategies Technological Capabilities
  26. 26. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Interaction with driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Interaction with each other </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesis </li></ul><ul><li>Examine and describe the interactions among forecasted customer needs, competitive responses and technological capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Revise the forecast as indicated </li></ul>06/07/09
  27. 27. Cross Impacts 06/07/09 Customer Needs Competitive Responses Technological Capabilities Customer Needs Competitive Strategies Technological Capabilities
  28. 28. Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology <ul><li>Interaction with driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Interaction with each other </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesis </li></ul><ul><li>Combine the results of all of the forecasts and analyses into a strategic market analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Executive summary </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Detail analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
  29. 29. 4. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Market Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical Models </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Map </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Road Maps </li></ul>06/07/09
  30. 30. Cross Impact Analysis <ul><li>Provides a way to incorporate interacting forces in a forecast </li></ul><ul><li>>16 different types in use </li></ul><ul><li>Separate and explicit account is taken of the causal connections among a series of forecasted events and/or trends </li></ul><ul><li>Systematic means of combining forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Interative use of a cross impact matrix </li></ul>06/07/09
  31. 31. Cross Impact (cont.) <ul><li>Effective technique for examining the probability that an advance in technology will be affected by external forces </li></ul><ul><li>Useful for identify key technologies (technology that has a strong relationship with other technologies) </li></ul><ul><li>Qualitative or quantitative </li></ul><ul><li>Time dimension can be added through the use of Markov chains </li></ul>06/07/09
  32. 32. Cross Impact Matrix 06/07/09 If this Event Occurs The Probability of This Event Becomes
  33. 33. Cross Impact Example 06/07/09 Fax Product Source: Porter, et al
  34. 34. 4. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Market Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical Models </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Map </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Road Maps </li></ul>06/07/09
  35. 35. Mathematical Models <ul><li>Usually custom developed </li></ul><ul><li>Application specific </li></ul><ul><li>Structure and dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Ways to integrate and relate a number of variables </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Goal is to be predictive </li></ul>06/07/09
  36. 36. Mathematical Model Example 06/07/09 Source: Allan, 1999
  37. 37. 4. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Market Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical Models </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Map </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Road Maps </li></ul>06/07/09
  38. 38. Types of Innovation <ul><li>Nature </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Product </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Procedure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Class </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Incremental </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distinctive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Breakthrough </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
  39. 39. The S-Curve and Innovation 06/07/09 Incremental Time Productivity Incremental Incremental Incremental Distinctive Distinctive Breakthrough
  40. 40. Innovation Map 06/07/09 Product Process Procedure Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough
  41. 41. Automotive History <ul><li>Experimenters & Hobbyists (1820s - 1900s) </li></ul><ul><li>Search & Learn (1900s - 1908) </li></ul><ul><li>A Car for Everyone (1908 - 1927) </li></ul><ul><li>Living Room on Wheels (1920s - 1950s) </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesizing Market Demands (1950s - 1980s) </li></ul><ul><li>Life Style on Wheels (1980s - 2000s) </li></ul>06/07/09
  42. 42. Experimenters & Hobbyists 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  43. 43. Search & Learn 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  44. 44. A Car for Everyone 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  45. 45. Living Room on Wheels 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  46. 46. Synthesizing Market Demands 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  47. 47. Life Style on Wheels 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  48. 48. Innovation Mapping <ul><li>Way to integrate and display a lot of information </li></ul><ul><li>Can be predictive </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analogy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Historical trends </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat Analysis </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
  49. 49. Forecast Example 06/07/09
  50. 50. 4. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Market Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical Models </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Map </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Road Maps </li></ul>06/07/09
  51. 51. Scenarios <ul><li>Narrative descriptions of possible futures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Alternative future characteristics of a technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Alternative environments into which future technology must evolve </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Effective way to integrate and communicate </li></ul><ul><li>Useful as stand-alone forecasts if time series data, expertise or models are lacking </li></ul><ul><li>Normative or projective </li></ul>06/07/09
  52. 52. Scenarios (cont.) <ul><li>Full richness of a future can be incorporated into imaginative descriptions </li></ul><ul><li>Can provide rich, complex portraits of possible futures </li></ul><ul><li>Can incorporate a wide range of quantitative and qualitative information produced by other forecasting techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Effective way of communicating forecasts to a wide variety of people </li></ul>06/07/09
  53. 53. Scenarios (cont.) <ul><li>Strategy development tool </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple scenarios usually required </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Decision space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Drivers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Minimum of four scenarios </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
  54. 54. AF 2025 (1995-96) <ul><li>Most important drivers </li></ul><ul><ul><li> TeK: differential in the rate of economic growth & proliferation of technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World Power Grid: generation, transmission & distribution and control of power, political, economic and military, throughout the world </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>American World View: US perspective of the world; its willingness & capability to interact with the rest of the world </li></ul></ul>06/07/09 Source:www.au.af.mil/au/2025/monographs/E-S/e-s.htm
  55. 55. AF 2025 (cont.) 06/07/09
  56. 56. AF 2025 (cont.) <ul><li>Global Information Management System </li></ul><ul><li>Sanctuary Base </li></ul><ul><li>Global Surveillance, Reconnaissance & Targeting System </li></ul><ul><li>Global Area Strike System </li></ul><ul><li>Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicle </li></ul><ul><li>Space-Based High Energy Laser System </li></ul><ul><li>Solar-Powered High Energy Laser System </li></ul><ul><li>Uninhabited Reconnaissance Aerial Vehicle </li></ul><ul><li>Attack Microbots </li></ul><ul><li>Piloted Single-Stage-to-Orbit Transatmospheric Vehicle </li></ul>06/07/09
  57. 57. 4. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Market Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical Models </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Map </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Road Maps </li></ul>06/07/09
  58. 58. Road Maps <ul><li>Projection of major technological elements of product design and manufacturing together with strategies for reaching desirable milestones efficiently </li></ul><ul><li>Roadmaps typically run several technology or product generations (2 to 10 years) </li></ul><ul><li>A science and technology roadmap provides a consensus view of the future science and technology environment available for decision makers </li></ul>06/07/09
  59. 59. Road Maps (cont.) <ul><li>Predictive elements are supplemented with targeted normative elements </li></ul><ul><li>Goal is to be more actionable </li></ul><ul><li>Avoids objectionable terms like “strategic planning” and “forecasting” </li></ul><ul><li>Industry associations and consortia have embraced </li></ul><ul><li>Corporations are using to help direct R&D efforts </li></ul>06/07/09
  60. 60. ITRS Roadmap 06/07/09 Source: http://public.itrs. net/Files/2001ITRS/Home.htm
  61. 61. ITRS Roadmap (cont.) <ul><li>Front end processes </li></ul><ul><li>Lithography </li></ul><ul><li>Interconnect </li></ul><ul><li>System drivers </li></ul><ul><li>Design </li></ul><ul><li>Factory integration </li></ul><ul><li>Assembly & packaging </li></ul><ul><li>Test & test equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Environment, safety & health </li></ul><ul><li>Yield enhancement </li></ul><ul><li>Metrology </li></ul><ul><li>Process integration, devices & structures </li></ul><ul><li>Modeling & simulation </li></ul>06/07/09
  62. 62. ITRS Roadmap (cont.) 06/07/09
  63. 63. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Market Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical Models </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Map </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Road Maps </li></ul>06/07/09 Potential Future Reality Data, Insight Surveillance Material Change Trend Analysis Formal Application Productive Expert Opinion Purpose Final Integrative Techniques
  64. 64. Glocal Vantage, Inc. <ul><li>PO Box 161475 </li></ul><ul><li>Austin, TX 78716 </li></ul><ul><li>(512) 632-6586 </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>www.glocalvantage.com </li></ul><ul><li>http://incollaboration.com </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: innovant2003 </li></ul>Glocal Vantage, Inc.
  65. 65. Paul Schumann <ul><li>Futurist and innovation consultant </li></ul><ul><li>Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 tools & technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes </li></ul><ul><li>Broad perspectives on the future </li></ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic market research & technology forecasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligence systems consulting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seminars, webinars & presentations </li></ul></ul>Glocal Vantage, Inc.
  66. 66. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.

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