The Collaboration of Disruptive Technology


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Presented at InnoTech Oklahoma by David Smith on 11-3-2011. All rights reserved.

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The Collaboration of Disruptive Technology

  1. 1. 11/3/2011The Collaboration of DisruptiveTechnology The Future is about technology and a lot more. It is about how do we use emerging technologies such as new types of mobile platforms, html5, the Cloud redefined, the movement of social into the business world and the rapid fire introductions of new technology? Disruptive technologies will change the landscape even more. How can we ba a ce the ast balance t e fast pace o innovation with bot workforce a d ou o of o at o t both o o ce and our own life ba a ce e balance? This session will provide the audience with a future perspective, not only where technology is headed but how it will impact our businesses and the way we work. The line between all aspects of technology, business, and family is blurring as the trend to bring your own technology to work and connect it to the network accelerates. Where is this future heading? The Collaboration of Disruptive Technology David Smith CEO  HBMGInc. 1
  2. 2. 11/3/2011Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Challenges in the 21st century Information Safety & Explosion Knowledge Security Economy Accelerating Globalization Change International Partnerships Complex Technologies Finite Diverse Resources Workforce Sustainable Life-Long Development Learning Citizen Engagement 2
  3. 3. 11/3/2011Information and CommunicationTrends • Seamless Interoperability Between Heterogeneous Networks • M bili for All Mobility f • User Centered Content-Based Information Access • Agents Take Over Routine Work • “E” P “E”- Processes f B i for Business and Private Life d P i t Lif • Human Computer Interaction is Turning Into Human Computer Cooperation Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 3
  4. 4. 11/3/2011 The Limits of Technology Fundamental • The laws of physics • The laws of software • The challenge of algorithms • The difficulty of distribution • The problems of design • The importance of organization • The impact of economics • The influence of politics • The limits of human imagination HumanCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 4
  5. 5. 11/3/2011 The Growth Of Complexity Higher Technical Complexity DOD weapon Embedded system automotive Telecom switch National Air application Commercial Traffic Control compiler System Lower HigherManagement ManagementComplexity Large-scale simulation Complexity Small scientific Enterprise simulation Enterprise information application systems DOD management information system Business spreadsheet Lower Technical Complexity What use could this company make of an electrical toy? With those words, William Orton, president of Western Union, dismissed the newfangled gadget offered to him for $100,000 in 1876. Other leading lights echoed his skepticism. “An interesting novelty,” financier J.P. g y Morgan huffed. 5
  6. 6. 11/3/2011 Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity Economic & Financial Virtual Worlds Technology Acceleration Cyber WarfareRussia - China Intangible K-12 Science Capital & Math Crisis PandemicTerrorism Global Talent Explosion Offshore Competition p English as 2nd3 Billion New Demographics Capitalists Economic Unions Flat Wages Regional Economic End of Moore’s Law Dislocation Disruptors can be:  Technology  Regulatory  Economic  Civil  Natural Disasters … 6
  7. 7. 11/3/2011New Economic Superpowers in 2050? Innovation is Accelerating 7
  8. 8. 11/3/2011The “Fat Pipe”Broadband and Online Households 100% 90% dsPercentage of Household 80% Online 70% Households 60% Broadband 50% Households Broadband Access 2008 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc. 8
  9. 9. 11/3/2011 Growth of Broadband Users 4,000 3,500 3,000Millions of Users 2,500 Cellular Subscribers 2,000 World Broadband 20 1,500 Broadband Users 1,000 Internet 500 Users 005 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Historical Data Source: ITU Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc. Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 9
  10. 10. 11/3/2011 From Industry Trends Leading to Cloud Computing A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that has: • A user interface that makes the infrastructure underlying the service transparent to the user • Near-zero incremental management costs when additional IT resources are added • A service management platform 2010 2000 Cloud Computing 1998 Software as a Service1990 • Next-Generation Utility Computing • Network-based Internet computing Grid Computing • Offering computing subscriptions to • Solving large applications • Next-Generation resources as a problems with Data Centers metered service parallel computing • Gained momentum • Introduced in late in 2001 • Made mainstream by 1990s Globus Alliance Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 10
  11. 11. 11/3/2011 A Crisis of Complexity. The Need for Progress is Clear. 1.5x Explosion of information driving 54% growth in storage shipments every year. 70¢ per $1 70% on average is spent on maintaining current IT infrastructures versus adding new capabilities. 85% idle In distributed computing environments, environments up to 85% of computing capacity sits idle. 70%+ Never recover Of business never recover from a major Howard Levenson, IBM data disaster. Annual Operating Costs Are Out Of Control PhysicalSpending Server Installed Worldwide IT Spending on Servers, Power, Cooling Base (Millions) US$(B) and Management/Administration$250 50 Power and Cooling Costs 45 4 Server Mgt and Admin Costs$200 New Server Spending 40 35$150 30 25$100 20 15 $50 10 5 $0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 IDC 11
  12. 12. 11/3/2011 The “Cloud Pyramid” Build upon a foundation Layers equate structure Building blocks: Infrastructure, Platforms, Applications Breadth vs. NicheCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc The “Cloud Pyramid” Inversed 1000’s of Cloud Applications currently Handful of Cloud Platforms Elite group of Cloud Infrastructure providers # of Marketplace providers Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 12
  13. 13. 11/3/2011 Ubiquitous Connectivity010 © HBMG, Inc For the rest of the world, this is the Internet Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 13
  14. 14. 11/3/2011 Embeddedness The Invisible ComputerEmbeddednessDigital convergence technologies will “form the invisible technical infrastructure for human actionanalogous to the visible infrastructure provided by buildings and cities.”Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization, ubiquitous communication, and advanced materials and sensing devices. t i l d i d iIn 2000, 98% of computing devices sold are embedded in products and are not apparent to the product’s user. Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 14
  15. 15. 11/3/2011Exposures1. Increased Dependency on Complex Technologies and Business Processes2. Steep Decline of Barriers to Trade3. Speed of Transactions4. The Death of Distance5. The Adoption of Advanced Communications6. Consolidation/Transformation of Traditional Industries7. The Internet and the Abundance of Information8. Infrastructure9. Overcommitted Agencies10.Changing Social Constructs Threats and Vulnerabilities– What’s at Stake • Critical Infrastructures • Key Resources • New Resources– The Case for Action • Cyber Threats • Insider Threats • External Threats • Cyber Terrorism • Physical Attacks 30 15
  16. 16. 11/3/2011Risk Management And Needed Security High mpactBusiness defines im Unacceptable Risk Impact to business Risk management drives risk to an acceptable level Acceptable Risk Probability of exploit Low High Security engineering defines probability 16
  17. 17. 11/3/2011Common Infrastructure forDigital Information Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 17
  18. 18. 11/3/2011 Characteristics of Agents Agents dynamically adapt Agents coordinate to and learn about and negotiate to achieve their environment common goals SocialIntelligent Adaptive Cooperative Personality Information Agents Agents Autonomous Mobile Interoperate Agents are goal directed Agents interoperate Agents move and act on their with humans, other, to where they own performing legacy systems, and are needed tasks on your behalf information sources Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. Autonomic Networks Self-configuring : Adapt Self-healing: automatically to the Discover, diagnose, dynamically changing and react to environments of link and disruptions from node failures. Self- Self- Self- Self- catastrophes and attacks. Configuring Healing Self-optimizing: Monitor Self- Self- Self- Self- Self-protecting: and tune resources Anticipate, detect, automatically during an Optimizing Protecting identify, and protect attack to minimize its against attacks from attack during and in the anywhere (safety ) (safety.) aftermath. 18
  19. 19. 11/3/2011 Digital Convergence— Drivers for a New Technology Revolution• Business and Social Globalization• “Always-On” Generations y• Virtual Worlds• Universal Access and Exchange of Information• Digitalization• Real Time in Business and Personal• Sustainable• New Lifestyles Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. Convergence is…1. Interfacing of mission critical systems – Zero time provisioning & de-provisioning – Employees continue to use the tools that they’ve always used – Event correlation & forensics2. One card solutions for physical security and IT – Leverage investments – Reduced total cost of ownership3. Software controlled processes – User self-service web portals with e-mail notifications self service e mail – Automation with audit trails (e.g. – compliance ready) – Risk management 19
  20. 20. 11/3/2011 Convergence reduces costs and risks SecurityInformation & Systems Events Comprehensive Security & Compliance Identity & Access Privileges 20
  21. 21. 11/3/2011 The Good Old Days for PCFor a long time way back in “Ye Olde Days,” traditional IT management pretended that PCs didn’t exist. (Would you like some COBOL with your MVS system?)While they were in “denial,” people bought the PCs they wanted and “administered” them themselves.Productivity increased immensely, at least for a while y y,While that sometimes worked well, other times chaos reigned 41 The Modern EraTodays more closely managed “enterprise” model was the response to that anarchy.At some sites, standardized PC configurations are purchased and tightly locked down and are then centrally administered. 42 21
  22. 22. 11/3/2011 Does The Following Sound Familiar?Users find mobile devices useful.Some IT folks find mobile devices threatening, or easy to dismiss, or too expensive, or simply irrelevant.Users buy what they want and use them in innovate ways 43 Even as cloud take hold, the IT landscape is changing rapidly…Technology is rapidly beingcommoditizedBusinesses are morewilling and able to shop forIT servicesIn-house IT infrastructure isincreasingly seen ascomplex and rigid © Harvard Business Review Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 22
  23. 23. 11/3/2011 The Flip-Flop is Here!Most technology in the hands of consumers today –mobile phones, broadband networking, comp ters net orking computers and printers– all printers ll started out in business applications.• NOW, individual consumers will bring the technology back into the workplace. Motorola Atrix 4G There’s also a laptop dock for the Atrix 4G now… 46 23
  24. 24. 11/3/2011Company App Stores 24
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  27. 27. 11/3/2011 Hierarchy of Needs Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.Collaboration Technologies Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 27
  28. 28. 11/3/2011 Competing in a Global Business Environment Taylor’s Law Sarnoff’s Law Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law (1910 – 1950s) (1960 - 1980) (1980 - 2000) (2000 - Future) Scientific Management “Human Side” Management Quality Management Era E-Manufacturing Value Chain Value Shop Firm Infrastructure Firm Infrastructure Human Resources Management Human Resources Management Infrastructure Technology Development Support Technology Development Procurement Procurement Problem Finding Problem & Acquisition Solving After- Inbound Operations Outbound Marketing sales Simon’s Problem Solving Model Logistics Logistics & Sales Service Choice Control/ Execution EvaluationValue Created in the Assembly Value Created by Transforming Value Created by Providing Inputs Into Products Solutions, Not Services Value Created ByLine (Operations) Self Forming Groups Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Sarnoff’s Law –1960s to mid 1980s For one-way broadcast communication, the value of the network itself rises proportionally to N, the potential number of listeners. Value Chain Firm Infrastructure Human Resources Management Technology Development Value Procurement Inbound Operations Outbound Marketing After Logistics Logistics & Sales Sales- Service Sarnoff Value created by transforming inputs into products NCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 28
  29. 29. 11/3/2011 Internet Direction Mainframe Copyright @2008 HBMG Inc. Metcalfe’s Law — Mid 1980s to 2000s The value of a network increases exponentially with the number of nodes – N2. A network becomes more useful as more users are connected. Value Shop Firm Infrastructure Human Resources Management Infrastructure Technology Development Support Procurement Metcalfe Problem Value Problem Finding & Acquisition Solving Simon’s Problem Solving Model Choice Sarnoff V Control/ Execution Evaluation Value created by providing solutions, not services NCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 29
  30. 30. 11/3/2011 Internet Direction ServersCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Reed’s Law — 2001 and into the future Any system that lets users create and maintain groups creates a set of group-forming options that increase exponentially with the number of potential members. And as a function, 2N dominates N2 - which means that even if each individual group-forming option is worth much less than an individual connection, eventually the total set of group-forming options will have far more option value. Value Network  Mediating technology facilitates exchange relationships Firm Infrastructure Reed Human Resources Management Value Technology Development Procurement Network Promotion and Contract Management • Invite and select Service Provisioning customers to join Infrastructure network • Establish Establish, Operation • Initialize, maintain and terminate links • Maintain and Metcalfe run physical manage, and terminate contracts • Billing for value received and information network Sarnoff NCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 30
  31. 31. 11/3/2011 Internet DirectionCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Competing in a Global Business Environment Taylor’s Law Sarnoff’s Law Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law (1910 – 1950s) (1960 - 1980) (1980 - 2000) (2000 - Future) Scientific Management “Human Side” Management Quality Management Era E-Manufacturing Value Chain Value Shop Firm Infrastructure Firm Infrastructure Human Resources Management Human Resources Management Infrastructure Technology Development Support Technology Development Procurement Procurement Problem Finding Problem & Acquisition Solving After- Inbound Operations Outbound Marketing sales Logistics Logistics & Sales Service Simon’s Problem Solving Model Choice Control/ Execution EvaluationValue Created in the Assembly Value Created by Transforming Value Created by Providing Value Created ByLine (Operations) Inputs Into Products Solutions, Not Services Self Forming Groups •Standardization Parts •Stable Relationships •Lean Manufacturing •Consumer Centric and Processes Design and Delivery •Price Conscious •Shift to Horizontal Structure •Economies of Scale •Flat Corporate •Producer Led Design •Focus on Core Structures •Producer-Centric Competency •Global Companies Design, Mfg., and •Collaborative Virtual •Reliability and Durability y y Delivery •Regionalism Regionalism Networks •Producer Led Design •Vertical Orientation •Productivity •Mass Customization •Multinational Trade •Required inventory •Subsidiaries •Transparency buffers •Market Centric •Plant Replication by •Speed and Agility Design & Delivery •Locally Oriented Region •Global Orientation Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 31
  32. 32. 11/3/2011 S-Curve for Innovation, Development, and Product Life 100% se Percentage of Installed Bas 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% t∆ t∆ t∆ 0% Time Science & Product Product Life Research DevelopmentCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Research/Product Life Cycle Research Development Product Life Introduction Preliminary Active Mature Legacy Obsolete Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 32
  33. 33. 11/3/2011 Research/Product Life Cycle Research Development Product Life Product Product Concept Business & Product Test Generation Screening Development Marketing Development Marketing— Deployment & Testing Strategy —Alpha BetaCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Research/Product Life Cycle Research Development Product Life Basic Science Experimental Directed Applied Sand Box Discovery Science Research Research Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 33
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  37. 37. 11/3/2011 A New Regional Model Emerging Then…. Now…. Region D Region A Region B Manufacturing Region C Research Trials/Testing Services Region G Development Region E Region F Self-Contained Specialized, Networked Regional Clusters RegionsCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. From Austin to… Network Emergent Emergent Emergent networks Networks Networks of Emergent Companies Companies Companies Companies NetworksCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 37
  38. 38. 11/3/2011 Borg — a person who wears a Bluetooth enabled telephone headset, especially when not in use (a reference to the Star Trek aliens who generally have electronic devices on their headsCopyright @2010 HBMG Inc. In Parting: Be Paranoid “Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business world will change.”  Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel “Only the Paranoid Survive” Copyright @2008 HBMG Inc. 38
  39. 39. 11/3/2011In Parting: Be Paranoid “Sooner or later, somethingfundamental in your business world will change.”  Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel “Only the Paranoid Survive” Copyright @2008 HBMG Inc. 39