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The future of the future: The technological singularity

José Luis Cordeiro explica que deparará el futuro en el Global Innovation Day 2016.

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The future of the future: The technological singularity

  1. 1. José Luis Cordeiro, MBA, PhD (www.cordeiro.org) Singularity University NASA, Silicon Valley, California The Millennium Project, Director Institute of Developing Economies, Japan Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Russia The Future of the Future: The Technological Singularity
  2. 2. The Millennium Project Global futurist think-tank with many nodes around the world
  3. 3. Singularity University
  4. 4. Ray Kurzweil (MIT): The Singularity is Near • www.singularity.com • Bill Gates
  5. 5. 14
  6. 6. 15
  7. 7. 16
  8. 8. Sequencing the genome: cost and time Year Cost (US$) Time 2003 1,000,000.000 13 years 2007 100,000,000 4 years 2008 1,000,000 2 months 2010 10,000 4 weeks 2015 1,000 5 days 2020 100 1 hour 2025 10 1 min
  9. 9. Stress & Opportunity
  10. 10. -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th Economy: the growth of growth Malthusian “trap”
  11. 11. ¿Qué es el futuro? ¡El futuro ya no es lo que era antes! Mafalda
  12. 12. From manufacturing to mindfacturing
  13. 13. We need to add value
  14. 14. •Passive (ostrich) Suffer the future •Reactive (fire fighter) Respond •Preactive (insurer) Prepare •Proactive (builder) Create Attitudes towards the future
  15. 15. Sir Arthur C. Clarke and Space Odyssey 2001
  16. 16. The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke • First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. • Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible. • Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
  17. 17. Technologies of the “past” • 30 years ago Personal computers • 20 years ago Cell phones • 10 years ago Google • What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years? Immortal (ageless) cells!
  18. 18. Aging as a disease? And curable?
  19. 19. Life extension results: today, now! x 3 times x 4 times x 6 times
  20. 20. Physical Immortality: Death of Death 1. Germinal cells (good) 2. Cancer cells (bad)
  21. 21. NBIC (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno) National Science Foundation Department of Commerce
  22. 22. Neurons Cogno Singularity Bio Info Cells Technological Convergence NBIC Nano Bits Atoms
  23. 23. 1. Nano (NBIC)
  24. 24. Nanotechnology: www.nano.gov
  25. 25. 2. Bio (NBIC)
  26. 26. The glo-fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)
  27. 27. De-extinction
  28. 28. Dolly: the clone
  29. 29. Singapore: Biopolis
  30. 30. Russia: cloning???
  31. 31. Synthetic biology is born • Variola virus (smallpox) Genes: 197 Base pairs: 185,000 • Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria) Genes: 485 Base pairs: 580,000 • Homo sapiens sapiens Genes: ~25,000 Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000
  32. 32. 3. Info (NBIC)
  33. 33. Global brain?
  34. 34. BMW forecasts
  35. 35. 64
  36. 36. IBM´s Watson won in Jeopardy! February 14-16, 2011
  37. 37. 4. Cogno (NBIC)
  38. 38. The brain: the final frontier!
  39. 39. Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
  40. 40. The triune brain: Paul MacLean, 1973 • Reptilian (primitive): Instincts • Limbic (paleomammalian): Emotions • Neo-cortex (neomammalian): Intelligence • New Exo-cortex: Super-Intelligence
  41. 41. • 1 brain • 1011 neurones • 1014 synapsis • 1017 computations (per second) • And the mind? • And the spirit? • And the soul? What is a brain?
  42. 42. External brain implants
  43. 43. Asimo (Honda) evolution
  44. 44. Robots are good in Japan
  45. 45. Humans or machines! Humans AND machines?
  46. 46. Oscar Pistorius: “Blade runner” in London 2012 Olympic Games
  47. 47. Football World Cup in Brazil: 2014
  48. 48. Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations Are humans trans-monkeys?
  49. 49. Transhumanism, yes... but carefully Homo sapiens sapiens
  50. 50. Superman? Christopher Reeve (paraplegic)
  51. 51. Stephen Hawking
  52. 52. Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future
  53. 53. Ronald Reagan: Alzheimer’s
  54. 54. Yin-yang 阴阳 (and more yin-yang)
  55. 55. Light up the world
  56. 56. Guru Cordeiro meditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)
  57. 57. ¡Muchas gracias! José Luis Cordeiro, MBA, PhD (www.cordeiro.org)

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