“Good models are more than screen deep”
Newmont Boddington Gold Case Study
Bulk Materials Handling 2014 conference
01-05
3...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
1
•  CAPEX Optimsation
2
•  Plant...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
TSG and NBG | study timeline
The ...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
Model animations
Page 4
INT-MKT-P...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
Detailed truck and shovel model i...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
NBG mining operation | animation
...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
Process model was updated from pr...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
NBG processing plant | animation
...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
Summary of results
Page 9
INT-MKT...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
CAPEX Optimisation | summary
Opti...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
Plant commissioning performance e...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
Operating & maintenance optimisat...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
NBG expertise
Significant expansi...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
NBG assigned significant resourci...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
•  System response testing
•  Sys...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 -1
0
1
33
34
35
3...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
Questions
The end
Page 17
INT-MKT...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
Appendix | DES general descriptio...
© 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved
Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning
Dynamic Modelling
•  Predicts how...
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Simon Collins, TSG Consulting, Good Models are More Than Screen Deep: The Case of Newmont Mining’s Boddington Gold expansion

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Simon Collins delivered the presentation at 2014 Bulk Materials Handling Conference.

The 11th annual Bulk Materials Handling Conference is an expert led forum focusing on the engineering behind the latest expansions and upgrades of bulk materials facilities. This conference will evaluate the latest engineering feats that are creating record levels of throughput whilst minimising downtime.

For more information about the event, please visit: http://www.informa.com.au/bulkmaterials14

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Simon Collins, TSG Consulting, Good Models are More Than Screen Deep: The Case of Newmont Mining’s Boddington Gold expansion

  1. 1. “Good models are more than screen deep” Newmont Boddington Gold Case Study Bulk Materials Handling 2014 conference 01-05 30th April 2014
  2. 2. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning 1 •  CAPEX Optimsation 2 •  Plant commissioning performance evaluation 3 •  Operating & maintenance optimisation Three recent & succesful NBG studies Developing confidence in the NBG DES model Site knowledge NBG Model integrity TSG Cross functional study team System response System insights Iterative learning Introduction Page 2 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  3. 3. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning TSG and NBG | study timeline The following represents the different studies that have been conducted over the past 14 years at the start date of the study. Page 3 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx Timeline 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Preliminary study carried out to evaluate initial flow sheet. Plant only model Model updated to represent new flow sheet Model expanded to include mining to undertake trucking evaluation Mine interface study Contribution to financial modeling Model update and additional scenario analysis Expanded works study Optimization study Mine plant interface study with revised equipment and operating strategy Bottleneck analysis, upgrade options and variability evaluation Operations modeling
  4. 4. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning Model animations Page 4 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  5. 5. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning Detailed truck and shovel model implemented during the latest studies Enabled understanding of crusher utilisation and variability in supply of material – proper understanding of coarse ore stockpile sizing and the impact on system productivity NBG mining operation | animation Page 5 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  6. 6. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning NBG mining operation | animation Page 6 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  7. 7. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning Process model was updated from previous work – major capital options testing required the largest model updates Significant effort to insert detailed bin level controls, up-to-date failure data, smart screen splits, conveyor capacity limits NBG processing plant | animation Page 7 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  8. 8. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning NBG processing plant | animation Page 8 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  9. 9. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning Summary of results Page 9 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  10. 10. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning CAPEX Optimisation | summary Option 1: Minor CAPEX process improvement options Option 2: Large CAPEX possibilities allowing higher mill production rates Iterative process to arrive at a final set of cases – increasing levels of system response insights and new improvement ideas Page 10 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx Process improvements capital options at varying mill rate assumptions
  11. 11. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning Plant commissioning performance evaluation | summary Detailed mining model development enabled rehandle approaches to be tested Confirmation and optimisation of truck and shovel strategies supplying the processing facility Page 11 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx Mining truck and shovels optimisation Effect of equipment upgrades with and without an operating mine
  12. 12. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning Operating & maintenance optimisation | summary Testing of maintenance strategies to minimise system disturbances and maximise production More than 15 maintenance schedules tested Minor upgrade timing effects Page 12 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx Planned maintenance scenarios testing Timing of equipment upgrades
  13. 13. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning NBG expertise Significant expansion project management and site management experience. This is a key element to a successful study outcome Data extraction and preparation: NBG team members excelled during this phase of the project and enabled model validation Documentation trail for internal critique Understanding of the decision making processes whether they be automated or manual decisions. One team member had significant control engineering experience on site Understanding how the supply chain should respond to change. Very knowledgeable team members with substantial operations experience. This enabled detailed validation work TSG expertise TSG has conducted more than 500 supply chain studies in almost 3 decades and is the company’s core business. Successful studies require a high level of attention to detail for both modelling and reporting of pertinent insights Optimal input of data into the DES model and highlighting areas where data quality is key to a successful outcome Data and logic document implemented for the model Iterative and collaborative work with the NBG team to ensure model functionality and model output tools were accurately reflecting the real system Assisting with the development and implementation of sensitivity cases . Displaying meaningful outputs to allow system level assessment DES model performance | developing confidence Collaborative effort to arrive at a quality study outcome Page 13 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  14. 14. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning NBG assigned significant resourcing to validate model against known plant performance Detailed checking of sensitivity case model outputs built confidence in expansion option case results DES model performance | example outputs Page 14 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx •  System component KPI’s •  Annual production •  Equipment states •  Average equipment rates or truck cycle times •  Equipment output time series & distributions Conveyor rate limit 3, 2, 1 & 0 units offlineMajor planned outage No feed to conveyor 03 Average ball mill performance for a “1-year” model run
  15. 15. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning •  System response testing •  System productivity with increasing mill rates (see right) •  System productivity with increasing truck numbers •  System productivity with increasing COS size •  Highlight point at which upgrades are no longer cost effective •  For the system as defined •  Other model changes could shift the point of cost effectiveness •  Combinations of upgrades are often effective •  Use of detailed outputs to assess where bottleneck predominates – then propose changes to equipment upgrades or control strategies DES model performance | system response System response evaluation provides another layer of confidence that model is performing as expected “Good models are more than screen deep” Page 15 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Mean  Mill  Rate  -­‐ 300 Mean  Mill  Rate  -­‐ 200 Mean  Mill  Rate  -­‐ 100 Mean  Mill  Rate Mean  Mill  Rate  +   100 Mean  Mill  Rate  +   200 Mean  Mill  Rate  +   300 Mean  Mill  Rate  +   400 Mean  Mill  Rate  +   500 Mill  Rate  Sensitivity Mtpa Expected diminishing system return from increasing mill rate
  16. 16. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 -1 0 1 33 34 35 36 37 38 Throughput(Mtpa) •  DES modelling a powerful tool to understand supply chains •  NBG and TSG efforts resulted in a robust supply chain model •  Provides confidence for capital upgrade decision making •  Directly supplies financial analysis (IRR determination) •  Study process generates improvement ideas •  Facilitates a system level understanding •  Can highlight shortfalls in data collection systems •  Can highlight areas where higher system level control strategies can be improved Conclusions | “Good models are more than screen deep” Page 16 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx Design of Experiments: efficient system response understanding
  17. 17. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning Questions The end Page 17 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  18. 18. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning Appendix | DES general description Page 18 INT-MKT-PRE-BMH2014ConferencePresentation-01-05.pptx
  19. 19. © 2012 TSG Consulting All Rights Reserved Simulation | Optimisation | Strategic Planning Dynamic Modelling •  Predicts how a system performance will vary with time. •  1 minute time steps typically (525,600 minutes = 1 year) Monte Carlo Simulation (random numbers) •  Variability is incorporated in events such as breakdowns and failures, grade fluctuations, load sizes. •  Combining the randomness of each operation through modelling enables us to quantify the expected variation of the physical system and to predict performance with a level of confidence. Discrete Entities and Processes •  Each physical item (truck, mill, pump, ship) is modelled as a discrete element with its own uniquely defined set of properties or attributes (speed, operating rate, reliability, carrying capacity). •  Rules are defined to describe the interaction of the entities in the system. •  The models are animated. Discrete event simulation (DES) | general description DES promotes system understanding and is inclusive of system input variability – results fall on a distribution DES has three defining elements: Sub Process Sub Process Sub Process Sub Process Sub Process Data Model Boundary Sub Process Sub Process Queu e Surge Pile Delay ? Operational Decisions Dependent Processes Logic Understanding Inputs Feedback Variation Performance

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