Adrian Kemp, NERA - Western Australian Electricity Market Trends – Implications for Market and Regulatory Reform

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Adrian Kemp, Director, NERA Economic Consulting delivered this presentation at the 8th Annual WA Power & Gas Conference 2014.

The conference represents a timely meeting for the industry to hear about the current changes affecting the WA energy and electricity market.

For more information, visit http://www.informa.com.au/wapowerconf14

Published in: News & Politics
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Adrian Kemp, NERA - Western Australian Electricity Market Trends – Implications for Market and Regulatory Reform

  1. 1. WA Electricity Market Trends Implications for Market and Regulatory Reform Perth 12 March 2014 Adrian Kemp Director
  2. 2. 1 Electricity costs in WA have increased significantly
  3. 3. 2 Similar electricity cost increases have occurred in other states New South Wales South Australia
  4. 4. 3 Forecasting demand in the SWIS has been challenging MW Maximum Demand – 50% POE
  5. 5. 4 Total consumption has increased in the SWIS MWh
  6. 6. 5 The rapid growth in Solar PV is unprecedented
  7. 7. 6 The way we generate and consume electricity is changing 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 NEM commenced operation Today Air-con 1.8 million households Air-con 5.4 million households PV 2.8 GW PV 0.1 GW ? ? ?
  8. 8. 7 Demand is also difficult to forecast in the NEM MW Maximum Demand NSW – 50% POE
  9. 9. 8 SWIS demand by month
  10. 10. 9 NEM demand by month
  11. 11. 10 Reserve capacity requirement has outpaced actual demand MW WA Reserve Capacity Requirement
  12. 12. 11 Capacity and maximum demand has become disconnected - New South Wales
  13. 13. 12 Capacity and maximum demand has become disconnected – South Australia
  14. 14. 13 Thermal generators are exiting and wind farms are entering
  15. 15. 14 Capacity has entered to meet the reserve capacity requirement MW
  16. 16. 15 Different wholesale price outcomes in WA and SA Western Australia South Australia
  17. 17. 16 PVs can change the load profile – South Australia 2010 41 MW 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 MW 2010
  18. 18. 17 PVs can change the load profile – South Australia 2010 to 2011 41 MW 172 MW 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 MW 2010 2011
  19. 19. 18 PVs can change the load profile – South Australia 2010 to 2012 41 MW 172 MW 319 MW 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 MW 2010 2011 2012
  20. 20. 19 PVs can change the load profile – South Australia 2010 to 2013 41 MW 172 MW 319 MW 435 MW 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 MW 2010 2011 2012 2013
  21. 21. Contact Us © Copyright 2013 NERA Australia Pty Ltd All rights reserved. Adrian Kemp Director NERA—Sydney 0406 753 352 adrian.kemp@nera.com

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