New trends in analytical methods foroptimising the supply chainsGOVERNMENT AND COMMERCIAL SERVICESGaurav Singh | Research ...
CSIRO: positive impact | Presentation title | Presenter name62% of our people holduniversity degrees2000 doctorates500 mas...
Our business unitsCSIRO: positive impact | Presentation title | Presenter name12Research Divisions11National Research Flag...
Our focus on industryCSIRO: positive impact | Presentation title | Presenter name› 1,600AUSTRALIANCOMPANIES› 350+MULTI-NAT...
China Australia Alliance forNew Energy VehicleInnovationGlobal connections: impact partnershipsCSIRO: positive impact | Pr...
Our track record: top inventionsCSIRO: positive impact | Presentation title | Presenter name4. EXTENDEDWEAR CONTACTS2. POL...
•About CSIRO•Optimisation•Case studies• Planning and Scheduling•Current Research•Learning PointsPresentation Outline
Analysis of Transport Systems &Supply ChainsTypical questions requiring analysis: How can such a complex system be unders...
OptimisationWhat: A process to assist in decision-making by applying tools likemathematics, computers and algorithms to co...
Important questions to ask• Are there decisions which are being made repeatedly?• Are there assets/resources which are bei...
Optimisation and SimulationOptimisation Chooses best optionsSimulation Shows results of different optionsIdeally Optimi...
Examples: UPS• Problem: Air and ground express delivery services with a fleetof 88,000 trucks. Too much time spent by the ...
Typical Optimisation ArchitectureDemandForecastingCalculate KPI’s. Planned versus actual.Combine known demands with past e...
Optimising Capacity in ExistingInfrastructureHVCCC, Rio Tinto Pit-to-portBuilding new transport infrastructure isexpensiv...
ObjectivesContract complianceSafety and operating rulesMaximise revenueEquitySpeed of SolutionRepeatability
BenefitsCreate rail schedules fasterWhat-if and iterationRecreate schedulesKnowledge baseDemonstrate equity
Tactical Rail Planning• Why Medium Term Plans (2 weeks to 2 years)• Identify bottlenecks• Maintenance alignment• Maximise ...
Tactical Rail Planning: Rio Tinto Iron Ore• Rio Tinto Iron Ore (RTIO) operations• Pilbara, Western Australia, 12 mines and...
Planning Tool for Rio Tinto Iron OreObjective: Simplify the planning process Reduce the current planning time Allow for...
CSIRO. Smarter Information UseResults0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Number of Trains#trainsP1P2P3P4P6P5Plan S1 S2...
Major Impacts: Planning Tool for Rio Tinto IronOreSince September 2011, RTIO has stopped themanual process and uses only o...
Hunter Valley Coal Chain –World’s Largest Coal Operation
Hunter Valley Coal Chain Coordinator
Hunter Valley Coal Chain Coordinator Responsible for planning and scheduling of all coal exports from theHunter Valley su...
Hunter Valley Rail Scheduling ExampleOperational planning of train trips in Hunter Valley Coal Chain~ 2 day horizonInputs:...
Recent Results44 trains~100 components300 / 250 forward / return paths32 loadpoints2 provisioning pointsFinal Result:50 tr...
Other optimisation models for HVCCC andRTIOMaintenance Alignment When to schedule planned maintenance to minimise lost ca...
CSIRO. Smarter Information UseCollaborative SchedulingTwo or more scheduling sub-systems interacting under anegotiation pr...
Design of wagonsDischarge of 50mm lumps of coal from a rail wagon. Coloursrepresent initial height layers of coal prior to...
Modelling of dustDust generated by coal/mineral particles travelling through aconveyor transfer chute.CSIRO. Smarter Infor...
Take home messages:Many analytical tools available for analysing and improvingtransport infrastructure. Data Analysis, Si...
Thank youDigital Productivity and Services FlagshipGaurav SinghResearch Stream Leadert +61 3 9545 8467e Gaurav.Singh@csiro...
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New trends in analytical methods for optimising the supply chains

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Dr Gaurav Singh, Commercial Services Research Stream Leader Digital Productivity and Services Flagship CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics at CSIRO delivered this presentation at the 8th annual Russia Coal Summit 2013. For more information about this event, please visit the event website: http://www.immevents.com/mining-conference/ciscoal

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New trends in analytical methods for optimising the supply chains

  1. 1. New trends in analytical methods foroptimising the supply chainsGOVERNMENT AND COMMERCIAL SERVICESGaurav Singh | Research Stream Leader
  2. 2. CSIRO: positive impact | Presentation title | Presenter name62% of our people holduniversity degrees2000 doctorates500 mastersWith our universitypartners, we develop650 postgraduateresearch studentsTop 1% of global researchinstitutions in 14 of 22 researchfieldsTop 0.1% in 4 research fieldsDarwinAlice SpringsGeraldton2 sitesAthertonTownsville2 sitesRockhamptonToowoombaGattonMyall ValeNarrabriMopraParkesGriffithBelmontGeelongHobartSandy BayWodongaNewcastleArmidale2 sitesPerth3 sitesAdelaide2 sites Sydney 5 sitesCanberra 7 sitesMurchisonCairnsIrympleMelbourne 5 sitesWho we areWerribee 2 sitesBrisbane6 sitesBribieIslandPeopleDivisionsLocationsFlagshipsBudget6500125811$1B+
  3. 3. Our business unitsCSIRO: positive impact | Presentation title | Presenter name12Research Divisions11National Research Flagships+National Research Facilitiesand CollectionsFOOD, HEALTH& LIFE SCIENCEINDUSTRIESENVIRONMENT MANUFACTURING,MATERIALS &MINERALSENERGY INFORMATION &COMMUNICATIONS+TransformationalCapability Platforms
  4. 4. Our focus on industryCSIRO: positive impact | Presentation title | Presenter name› 1,600AUSTRALIANCOMPANIES› 350+MULTI-NATIONALS› 80 NEW LICENSES› BIG AUSTRALIANS & SMEs› 150+ SPINOUTSINTERESTS IN 34› 34 =› $1BILLION› $120MILLION› 300+
  5. 5. China Australia Alliance forNew Energy VehicleInnovationGlobal connections: impact partnershipsCSIRO: positive impact | Presentation title | Presenter name80+countries
  6. 6. Our track record: top inventionsCSIRO: positive impact | Presentation title | Presenter name4. EXTENDEDWEAR CONTACTS2. POLYMERBANKNOTES3. RELENZAFLU TREATMENT1. FAST WLANWireless LocalArea Network5. AEROGARD 6. TOTALWELLBEING DIET7. RAFTPOLYMERISATION8. BARLEYMAX 9. SELF TWISTINGYARN10. SOFTLYWASHING LIQUID
  7. 7. •About CSIRO•Optimisation•Case studies• Planning and Scheduling•Current Research•Learning PointsPresentation Outline
  8. 8. Analysis of Transport Systems &Supply ChainsTypical questions requiring analysis: How can such a complex system be understood? What is the best way to increase capacity? How can the efficiency of the system be improved?Why are these questions difficult to answer?Nominal vs Effective capacity of components – trains, tracks, loadingpoints etc Nominal = theoretical or peak capacity of system component Effective = average performance actually achievable in practiceVariability and Uncertainty Variability = changing but predictable aspects Uncertainty = unpredictable at planning timeThe whole is not the sum of the parts – system interactions.Many different aspects of the system could be changed
  9. 9. OptimisationWhat: A process to assist in decision-making by applying tools likemathematics, computers and algorithms to convert data intoinformation.Why: to gain competitive advantage; make decisions faster; betterasset utilisation; being able to make decision with whole of systemview; what-if analysis.
  10. 10. Important questions to ask• Are there decisions which are being made repeatedly?• Are there assets/resources which are being under utilised?• The type of data available?• What is the meaning of “best” within your operations?• Where is the variability and uncertainty in the system?• How good is our forecast?
  11. 11. Optimisation and SimulationOptimisation Chooses best optionsSimulation Shows results of different optionsIdeally Optimisation first Simulation to refine andillustrate
  12. 12. Examples: UPS• Problem: Air and ground express delivery services with a fleetof 88,000 trucks. Too much time spent by the trucks idling whilewaiting to make a left-had turns• Solution: An optimisation routing software that favoured righthand turns and developed routes that balanced directness withminimal left hand turns.• Outcome: In 2005, the software eliminated 464,000 drivingmiles in Washington DC saving 51,000 gallons of fuel.
  13. 13. Typical Optimisation ArchitectureDemandForecastingCalculate KPI’s. Planned versus actual.Combine known demands with past experience to create anaccurate forecastCapacity and investment planning; pricingResource utilisationNext day, next week planningStrategicPlanningTacticalPlanningOperationsDisruptionmanagementPerformanceMonitoringReplanning and rescheduling on the day
  14. 14. Optimising Capacity in ExistingInfrastructureHVCCC, Rio Tinto Pit-to-portBuilding new transport infrastructure isexpensive in Money TimeThe fastest and cheapest way to reactto changes in transport requirementsis through optimisation of existinginfrastructure Tactical Planning – periods of weeks ormonths Operational Scheduling – periods of a days
  15. 15. ObjectivesContract complianceSafety and operating rulesMaximise revenueEquitySpeed of SolutionRepeatability
  16. 16. BenefitsCreate rail schedules fasterWhat-if and iterationRecreate schedulesKnowledge baseDemonstrate equity
  17. 17. Tactical Rail Planning• Why Medium Term Plans (2 weeks to 2 years)• Identify bottlenecks• Maintenance alignment• Maximise throughput• Efficient use of trains/resources• Maximise product quality
  18. 18. Tactical Rail Planning: Rio Tinto Iron Ore• Rio Tinto Iron Ore (RTIO) operations• Pilbara, Western Australia, 12 mines and 3 ports• 240 Mt Operation and ~1500 km distances• Mining• Production plans• Loading capacities• Live/bulk stockpiles• Maintenances• Rail• Fleet of trains: capacity, cycle time• Network capacity• Ports• Car dumpers: capacity, maintenances• Live/Bulk stockpilesPhotos courtesy of Rio TintoCSIRO. Smarter Information Use
  19. 19. Planning Tool for Rio Tinto Iron OreObjective: Simplify the planning process Reduce the current planning time Allow for “what-if” analysisOptimal number of trains needed to maximisethroughput while observing Port and rail maintenance requirements Production plans at various mines Fleet capacities Dumping and loading capacities available atports and mines Grade quality at ports and minesPhotos courtesy of Rio TintoCSIRO. Smarter Information UseValue forcustomer
  20. 20. CSIRO. Smarter Information UseResults0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Number of Trains#trainsP1P2P3P4P6P5Plan S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000Shipped TonnesPort1Port2Port3ktShippedPlan S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6-500050010001500200025003000350040001 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47Net Remaining Train HoursPlanTool-1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47Tool Tool
  21. 21. Major Impacts: Planning Tool for Rio Tinto IronOreSince September 2011, RTIO has stopped themanual process and uses only our tool to createplans for its 240mt pa operation.“A comparison between our tool and the previousmanual approach demonstrated that, over an 18month planning horizon, the optimiser scheduledover 500 kilotonnes of iron ore more than the planobtained manually. Moreover, the scheduling toolhas been consistently producing plans with higheriron ore throughput than the manual approach, tothe extent that the company’s planners now relysolely on the software developed by CSIRO.”,-IFORS News 2012
  22. 22. Hunter Valley Coal Chain –World’s Largest Coal Operation
  23. 23. Hunter Valley Coal Chain Coordinator
  24. 24. Hunter Valley Coal Chain Coordinator Responsible for planning and scheduling of all coal exports from theHunter Valley supply chain Independent body accountable to all of the major players in the supplychain (mining companies, ports etc)Planning Horizons: Strategic: Capacity expansion and changes to business rules looking at 2-10 year horizons Tactical: Maintenance planning, capacity allocation (to differentcompanies), etc looking at periods of up to 1 year Operational: Managing ship queue, stockpile allocations, train schedulingetc for 1 day to maximum 2 weeks out Live run: day of operations disruption management
  25. 25. Hunter Valley Rail Scheduling ExampleOperational planning of train trips in Hunter Valley Coal Chain~ 2 day horizonInputs: Demand for railing Availability of trains, track,load points etc Train paths Maintenance requirements (Un)loading ratesAim: Maximise throughput Match railing to shippingpriorities Maximise train utilisationOutput: Schedule for trainsOngoing enhancements
  26. 26. Recent Results44 trains~100 components300 / 250 forward / return paths32 loadpoints2 provisioning pointsFinal Result:50 train trips scheduled380,000 tonnes deliveredRegulardeliverySmall Gap
  27. 27. Other optimisation models for HVCCC andRTIOMaintenance Alignment When to schedule planned maintenance to minimise lost capacity forthe whole system?Stockpile Planning Optimisation Where to locate stockpiles in the stockyardContract Alignment Optimisation Medium term planning to ensure all users (mining companies) get theirfair share of the capacity while maximising throughputMajor Outage Recovery Optimisation How to bring the system back to it’s normal state of operating after amajor outage.Annual capacity planning model
  28. 28. CSIRO. Smarter Information UseCollaborative SchedulingTwo or more scheduling sub-systems interacting under anegotiation protocol in order to find a feasible,mutually-acceptable and near-optimal schedules foractivitiesWhy Collaborative Scheduling: supply chains haveindependent players with several shared resourcesIndustrial problems often yield planning schedulingproblems which is simply too large and/or complexNatural boundaries within the problem bring localised: Ownership of data, and access to data Ownership of decisions Synchronisation of planning processes Resolutions/precision in plans and schedulesSkillsFacilitiesGoods andMaterialsServicesDemand
  29. 29. Design of wagonsDischarge of 50mm lumps of coal from a rail wagon. Coloursrepresent initial height layers of coal prior to unloading.CSIRO. Smarter Information Use
  30. 30. Modelling of dustDust generated by coal/mineral particles travelling through aconveyor transfer chute.CSIRO. Smarter Information Use
  31. 31. Take home messages:Many analytical tools available for analysing and improvingtransport infrastructure. Data Analysis, Simulation, Capacity Expansion Optimisation, StochasticOptimisationTo select the right one, think about: What questions are to be answered? Data available On what timescale are decisions being made? How important are uncertainty and variability in the system? Effort into analysis commensurate with potential investmentOptimisation tools can move beyond analysing infrastructurecapacity to providing guidance on a way forward.Can improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing transportinfrastructure through tools for optimised planning & scheduling
  32. 32. Thank youDigital Productivity and Services FlagshipGaurav SinghResearch Stream Leadert +61 3 9545 8467e Gaurav.Singh@csiro.auw www.cmis.csiro.au/Gaurav.SinghGOVERNMENT AND COMMERCIAL SERVICES

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