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C. Humair - Les crises du XIXe siècle: années 1840 et Grande dépression

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C. Humair - Les crises du XIXe siècle: années 1840 et Grande dépression

  1. 1. Les crises du 19e siècle: années 1840 et Grande dépression SSHES Journée annuelle 2010 Cédric Humair Université de Lausanne
  2. 2. Plan de la présentation ! Rapide parcours historiographique ! La crise des années 1840: «Terra incognita» ! La Grande dépression: jalons chronologiques ! Conséquences économiques, sociales et politiques ! Perspectives de recherche
  3. 3. Rapide parcours historiographique
  4. 4. Historiographie ! 1964!: BÖHI Hans, «Hauptzüge einer schweizerischen Konjunkturgeschichte», in Ein Jahrhundert schweizerischer Wirtschaftsentwicklung, hrsg. von der schweizerischen Gesellschaft für Statistik und Volkswirtschaft, Bern, 1964, pp.71-105. ! 1978: BAIROCH Paul, «Le volume des exportations de la Suisse de 1851 à 1975», in Revue Suisse d!Histoire, 28, 1978, pp.29-50. ! 1984!: BERGIER Jean-François, Histoire économique de la Suisse, Lausanne, 1984
  5. 5. Crise de la seconde moitié des années 1970 —> Ecole de Zurich ! 1978!: SIEGENTHALER Hansjörg, Kapitalbildung und sozialer Wandel in der Schweiz 1850 bis 1914, in Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 193, 1978, pp.1-29. ! 1981 SCHWARZ Jutta, Bruttoanlageinvestitionen in der Schweiz von 1850 bis 1914. Eine empirische Untersuchung zur Kapitalbildung, Bern, 1981. ! 1983 BECK Ulrich, Lange Wellen wirtschaftlichen Wachstums in der Schweiz 1814-1913. Eine Untersuchung der Hochbauinvestitionen und ihrer Bestimmungsgründe, Bern/Stuttgart, 1983. ! 1983!: BERNEGGER Michael, Die schweizer Wirtschaft 1850 bis 1913: Wachstum, Strukturwandel und Konjunkturzyklen, Lizentiatsarbeit, Universität Zürich, 1983.
  6. 6. La Statistique historique de la Suisse et son exploitation ! 1996!: RITZMANN-BLICKENSTORFER Heiner (éd.), Statistique historique de la Suisse, Zürich, 1996. ! 2004: HUMAIR Cédric, Développement économique et Etat central 1815-1914. Un siècle de politique douanière suisse au service des élites, Berne/New York: Peter Lang, 2004.
  7. 7. La crise des années 1840: «Terra incognita»
  8. 8. Historiographie !1914: SCHEURER Frédéric, Les crises de l'industrie horlogère dans le canton de Neuchâtel, Neuveville, 1914. !1987!: DUDZIK Peter, Innovation und Investition. Technische Entwicklung und Unternehmerentscheide in der schweizerischen Baumwollspinnerei, 1800 bis 1916, Zürich, 1987. !1953!: BABEL Anthony, «La crise économique du milieu du XIXe siècle à Genève et l"avènement du régime de James Fazy», Annales Fribourgeoises, 41, 1953, pp.!22-26. !1978!: SALZMANN Martin, Die Wirtschaftskrise im Kanton Zürich 1845 bis 1848, Bern/Frankfurt am Main/Las Vegas, 1978.
  9. 9. Durée et ampleur de de la crise - 46%
  10. 10. Crise d’Ancien Régime et crise moderne
  11. 11. Valeur ajoutée perd 53% entre 1836 et 1849
  12. 12. Forte différenciation géographique de la crise ! Suisse orientale rapidement et fortement touchée (industries de la soie et du coton, artisanat, viticulture) ! Suisse occidentale touchée tardivement et moins violemment : < horlogerie, rubanerie = marchés plus diversifiés ! Suisse centrale peu touchée (?) Indice des prix des produits du bétail stable
  13. 13. Conséquences sociales et politiques ! Pauvreté à Zurich: explosion du nombre de personnes à l"assistance sociale entre 1838 et 1847 (Salzmann) ! Emigration outre-mer : forte augmentation entre 1839 et 1854 (Ritzmann) ! Impulsions aux changements politiques ! Fondation du Schweizerischer Gewerbsverein en 1843 ! Appel à une intervention de la Confédération: programme de centralisation économique
  14. 14. La Grande dépression: jalons chronologiques
  15. 15. Quelques apports historiographiques plus spécifiques: ! 1983!: SIEGENTHALER Hansjörg, Konsens, Erwartungen und Entschlusskraft: Erfahrungen der Schweiz in der Überwindung der Grossen Depression vor hundert Jahren, in ZSV, 119, 1983, pp.213-235 ! 1992: WIDMER Tomas, Die Schweiz in der Wachstumskrise der 1880er Jahre, Zürich, 1992. ! 1994!: ERNST Andreas et al. (Hg.), Kontinuität und Krise. Sozialer Wandel als Lernprozess. Beiträge zur Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte der Schweiz, Festschrift für Hansjörg Siegenthaler, Zürich, 1994. ! 2003: DAVID Thomas, «Croissance économique et mondialisation. Le cas de la Suisse 1870-1914», in GILOMEN Hans Jörg et al. (éds), La globalisation — chances et risques. La Suisse dans l!économie mondiale 18e-20e siècles, Zürich, 2003.
  16. 16. 1875 (sommet) à 1879 (plancher) = - 14% Retour au niveau de 1875 en 1885
  17. 17. Comparaison internationale Europe (Gilles) E-U (Gilles) CH: PIB réel Investissements Export (Bairoch) Début 1873 1873 1876 1876 1873 Plancher 1878 1879 1879 1879 1877 Essor 1878-82 1879-83 1880-82 1880 1878-82 Récession 1882-85 1883-86 1883 1881-85 1883-85 Essor 1885-90 1886-90 1884-90 1886–> 1886 Récession 1890-95 1893-97 1891/94 1887/92 1887-92 Entrée en crise retardée de 1873 à 1876 Sortie de crise rapide (dès 1884) Récession du début des années 1890 faible en Suisse
  18. 18. 1873 = 135 —> 1895 = 79.8 (- 41%)
  19. 19. Conséquences économiques, sociales et politiques
  20. 20. Industrie : crise violente (baisse de 28% entre 1875 et 1879) Retour au niveau de 1875 en 1890
  21. 21. Reconfiguration de la grande industrie (selon la valeur ajoutée) sommet plancher perte max sommet 2 1913/sommet 1870 1890 1913 Coton 1872 1895 46% 35 ans perte 47% 1 2 5 Horlogerie 1873 1879 68% 23 ans 75% 2 3 3 Soie 1872 1894 65% perte 22% 3 4 6 Alimentation 1875 1878 30% 5 ans 66% 4 1 4 Broderie 1875 1878 43% 6 ans 220% 5 5 2 Métaux/machines 1875 1878 56% 13 ans 376% 6 6 1 Rapide transition aux technologies de la 2ème révolution industrielle: chimie, électrotechnique, électrochimie, etc.
  22. 22. Coton en 1913: 1,5 millions de broches et 27"000 métiers à tisser à l"étranger = supérieur à l"appareil de production en Suisse
  23. 23. Passage du capitalisme manchestérien à un capitalisme organisé ! Associations patronales à l"échelle nationale ! Organisation des marchés (cartels) ! Intervention accrue de l"Etat ! Politique commerciale de combat (1891) ! Rachat des chemins de fer (1898) ! Création de la BNS (1907)
  24. 24. Conséquences sur le salariat
  25. 25. Crise agricole est structurelle: mondialisation des échanges Valeur ajoutée revient au niveau de 1876 en 1898
  26. 26. 1880-1888: 12% des actifs disparaissent
  27. 27. Conséquences sociales et politiques ! Emigration outre-mer (Ritzmann) : vague des années 1880 ! Transition économique possible qu"avec l"aide de l"Etat: débuts de la politique agricole de la Confédération (1884) ! Début de la dépendance du secteur agricole vis-à-vis de l"Etat: favorise trois évolutions politiques —> processus d"intégration des élites catholiques- conservatrices au sein de l"Etat fédéral: 1891 Zemp au Conseil fédéral —> organisation du monde agricole : USP (1897) —> bloc bourgeois: USP + USCI + USAM (1902)
  28. 28. Perspectives de recherche
  29. 29. ! Systématiser les recherches à l"échelle cantonale (1ère moitié du 19e siècle) —> créer des outils statistiques permettant de mieux comprendre cette période (rôle des différentes activités économiques dans la croissance) ! Intégrer la dimension financière à l"analyse des crises du 19e siècle: banques déterminent en large mesure les investissements ! Investiguer de manière plus systématique les relations entre conjoncture économique et évolution politique : niveaux municipal, cantonal et fédéral
  30. 30. Références des graphiques 1) Indice des investissements dans le bâtiment 1833-1853 (1913 = 100) (Source: RITZMANN-BLICKENSTORFER Heiner (éd.), Statistique historique de la Suisse, Zürich, 1996, 889) 2) Indice des prix de gros 1833-1853 (1914 = 100) (Source: SHS, 485) 3) Filature mécanique de coton: valeur ajoutée (mios de frs: échelle de gauche) et bénéfice brut (cts/kg: échelle de droite) (Source: SHS, 620) 4) Evolution du PIB nominal et réel en Suisse 1851-1913 en mios de frs (Source: SHS, 866) 5) Indice des prix de gros en Suisse 1860-1914 (1914 = 100) (Source: SHS, 485) 6) Valeur ajoutée dans les trois secteurs en mios de frs (Source: SHS: 867) 7) Investissements directs de l"industrie suisse à l"étranger (stock en milliers de frs) (Source: SHS en ligne http://www.fsw.uzh.ch/hstat/nls/ls_files.php?chapter_var=./q) 8) Indice des salaires réels 1870-1913 (1913 = 100) (Source: SHS, en ligne http://www.fsw.uzh.ch/hstat/nls/ls_files.php?chapter_var=./g) 9) Nombre de grèves en Suisse 1880-1986 (Source: SHS, 1007-1009) 10) Valeur ajoutée dans les trois secteurs en mios de frs (Source: SHS: 867) 11) Population active des secteurs primaire, secondaire et tertiaire (en milliers) (Source: SHS, 410-411) 12) Valeur ajoutée des branches agricoles en mios de frs (Source: SHS, 867)

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