2013 skc lecture richard brown

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2013 skc lecture richard brown

  1. 1. Transport and Sustainable City Growth Sir Kenneth Cork Management Lecture CMI City of London Branch November 11th 2013 Richard Brown
  2. 2. Agenda • • • • • • Recent travel and population growth in London Transport's environmental impact Transport's growth impact Future growth forecasts How can this be accommodated? Conclusions
  3. 3. Recent Population Growth London South East England & Wales Source: O.N.S. 1983 -2012 +23%(+1.6m) +19%(+1.4m) +14%(+6m) 2002 - 2012 +12% (+0.9m) +8% (+0.7m) +7% (+4m)
  4. 4. Growth in peak central London commuting Rail Tube Bus Car Cycle 1996 – 2008 +111,000 +28% +72,000 +22% +37,000 +68% -73,000 -51% +13,000 +160% Total +163,000 Source: UK Transport Statistics +16%
  5. 5. The car - a mode on the decline
  6. 6. Growing in popularity – the Underground
  7. 7. Modal share of central London commuting Rail Tube Bus Car Cycle 1996 40% 33% 9% 14% 2% 2008 44% 35% 11% 6% 3%
  8. 8. Environmental performance UK Rail London Underground London Bus Average hybrid car Average petrol car
  9. 9. Looks a busy road… …but when you strip back the metal not many people are moved! Visual proof that buses are a solution to traffic congestion
  10. 10. Modal performance
  11. 11. How has travel growth been accommodated? • More trains: 36% (1997-2011) • Tube upgrades: • Victoria Line = +21% capacity • Northern Line = +20% • Jubilee Line = +20% • London Overground/Orbital • Javelin High Speed Service on HS1 • More buses: +50% (1996 -2012)
  12. 12. Impact of Eurostar and HS1 on growth • 3.8m French tourists in 2012 – No. 1 origin country! • 350,000 French nationals in London – France’s 6th city • Regeneration of Kings Cross, Stratford and N. Kent • Estimated £10bn of wider economic benefits • £5.8bn cost
  13. 13. Forecasts for London growth to 2033 • Population: +1m (+13%) ….or 50,000 people p.a. • Jobs • Households +600,000 +500,000 Source: London Plan
  14. 14. But other forecasts point to faster growth • ONS forecast 16% or + 9.0 million growth in England and Wales to 2035 • If London growth continues as before this would imply +26% growth over next 20 years or + 100,000 people each year • Other commentators, eg Lord Adonis and London Assembly Transport Committee, agree
  15. 15. Crossrail • £14.8 bn cost. Completion 2018. • Adds 10% to London rail capacity, 4.5% to total transport capacity.
  16. 16. Thameslink • £6.0 bn cost. Completion 2018. • Adds c.6.5% to London rail capacity, 3.0% to total transport capacity.
  17. 17. Future transport capacity increases Additional capacity Thameslink Crossrail Longer trains + electrification HS2 phase 1 HS2 phase 2 Crossrail 2 Cost Completion Date +3% +4.5% +3-5% +2% ? £6.0 bn £14.8bn £12.2 bn £17.2bn £17.0bn ? 2012-18 2018 2019 2026 2032 early 2030s? • Total capacity increase of 12.5 – 14.5%
  18. 18. Conclusions • Growth and transport inextricability linked • Transport facilitates and drives growth • Continuing investment is essential

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