The future of publishing June 2010

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The future of publishing 2010

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The future of publishing June 2010

  1. 1. the future of publishing
  2. 2. NOBODY CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE
  3. 3. THE END
  4. 4. NOT REALLY…
  5. 5. BUT PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS TRICKY…
  6. 6. “With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market.” - Business Week, 1958
  7. 7. “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” - Western Union, internal memo, 1876
  8. 8. “Theoretically, television may be feasible, but I consider it an impossibility – a development which we should waste little time dreaming about.” - Lee de Forest, inventor of the cathode ray tube, 1926
  9. 9. there are 710,000 results to choose from
  10. 10. …here’s 10
  11. 11. 1. people will pay for what they value - but not for things they are forced to pay for
  12. 12. 2. winning publishers will be flexible and agile, embracing emerging platforms
  13. 13. …and methodology of distribution will be more vital than presentation of destination
  14. 14. 3. open, de-centralised publishers will win
  15. 15. …closed, silo’d publishers will lose
  16. 16. 4. the definition of 'print' will change
  17. 17. …just as the process of watching TV, listening to radio and reading news is changing has changed
  18. 18. 5. citizen journalism will fundamentally affect the publishing industry
  19. 19. 6. harnessing the wisdom of the crowds will be proven as a competitive advantage
  20. 20. 7. multiple business models will exist, with no single ‘solution’ winning
  21. 21. …crossing over industry types to aggregate revenue streams
  22. 22. 8. consumption will be markedly different between alternative machines and screens
  23. 23. …people won't be forced into unsuitable experiences 
  24. 24. 9. differentiation of publisher offering will be from lateral innovation rather than solely improving content
  25. 25. 10. the ease of discovering, sharing and purchasing will determine success as much as the content itself
  26. 26. jonathan macdonald me@jonathanmacdonald.com jonathanmacdonald.com linkedin.com/in/jonathanmacdonald @jmacdonald thank you

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