This document provides an overview of foresight methods and lessons learned from international foresight exercises. It discusses how foresight can contribute to the entire policy cycle from agenda setting to evaluation. It emphasizes that foresight designs must always be customized and that foresight tools should not be the first step, but should engage stakeholders. Key methods discussed include scenarios, roadmaps, and integrating different foresight techniques. Case studies from Chile and the IMS 2020 project are also summarized.
Foresight Methods and Practice: Lessons Learned from International Foresight Exercises
1. Foresight Methods and Practice
Lessons Learned from International Foresight Exercises
Dr. Totti Könnölä, CEO
Insight Foresight Institute
Foresight Methodology Workshop
Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis Project
Organised by La Palma Research Centre
Date: 10-11 May/2017
Las Palmas, Gran Canaria, Spain
2. KEY MESSAGES
1. Foresight – for the whole policy cycle
2. Foresight designs – always customised
3. Foresight tools – never the first step
4. To conclude – engage the 'clients'
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3. Innovative Entrepreneurial
AdaptiveDirectional
Climate change &
circular economy
Digitalisation, industry
4.0, AI, bio-nano-info-
cogno convergence
Inequility & platform
economy
Social media &
collaborative economy
Conflicts & post-truth
politics
Volatility, uncertainty, complexity &
ambiguity (VUCA)
Our mission
INNOVATION ECOSYSTEM
A RESPONSE TO ‘VUCA WORLD’
“We orchestrate the expertise in
entrepreneurial innovation ecosystems to
spark and drive structural changes, enhance
resilience and direct society towards social,
economic and environmental sustainability.”
8. CHILE – ANTOFAGASTA
MAIN OBJECTIVES OF COOPERATION
Principal objective of cooperation between VTT and CICITEM is to
improve the human capacities in CICITEM as a facilitator of the
regional innovation activities, especially in terms of knowledge and
technology management.
The project proposal consists of three main objectives of cooperation:
1. Capacity building in the field of
institutional leadership and
knowledge management, innovation
culture, and innovation capabilities.
2. Self-sustained innovation capacity at
CICITEM
3. Capability to create strategic vision
the regional innovation activities and
facilitate joint innovation activities in
the mining cluster
10. VTT MINERAL ECONOMY INNOVATION
PROGRAMME
Towards Circular Mineral Economy
• Multi-technology competences enabling new innovations– e.g.
hydrometallurgy + powder metallurgy + life cycle assessment +
business models and foresight together
• Sustainable design for closing the loop with material efficient and
low energy solutions: valuable element recovery, residue utilization,
critical raw materials substitution, 3 D manufacturing (powder
based materials), remanufacturing, reuse and recycling, we
develop new solutions from secondary raw materials (out of
waste).
• Digital materials and processes (the systemic modelling factory
approach), new business models of mineral based materials. 10
16. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future
Analysis of Issues
Mean-oriented analysis
Relevance > Novelty >
Probability (means)
Variance-oriented analysis
Novelty > Relevance >
Probability (variance)
Rare event oriented analysis
Inverse probability > Novelty >
Relevance (means)
ü 100% issues score best independent of the used criteria preferences
ü 50% issues that score well, but are sensitive to criteria preferences
17. The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform
Project design
CASE: Web 2.0 for foresight
18. CASE: Challenge of global foresight: lessons from
IMS scenario and roadmapping process
19. Policy and regulation (aligned and coordinated)
Decisions (bottom-up and long-term)
Collaboration (global multi-level cooperation)
Values & Behaviours (collective)
Partnerships (high connectivity (proactive & vertical or with diverse stakeholders) and long-
term)
Product & Services Life Cycle and Performance: design, production, delivery and disposal
(breakthrough innovations & high performance)
Technology (breakthrough technologies)
Localisation (cooperation across value chain globally)
Markets (new)
Standardisation, Safety, Quality and Ethics (CSR)
(voluntary and beyond law applied to products, services & processes)
Knowledge Generation and Management
(tools and systems to transform tacit knowledge into explicit and organisational)
Education (flexible, provided by different actors and fostered by firms)
Curricula (personalised)
Competence and Skills (new)
Learning (modern and flexible)
Energy (renewable; intelligent)
Natural Resources & Materials (e.g. raw materials and water)
(new or alternative and efficient use & management (i.e. recycle, reuse, etc)
Environmental Footprint (positive)
DRIVERS IMS 2020
Política
Gobernanza
Industrial
Internacional
Co-operación de I+D+i
Conocimiento
Sociedad
22. § Rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing which leads to
customised and 'eternal' life cycle solutions
§ Highly flexible and self-organising value chains which enable for
different ways of organising production systems, including related
infrastructures, and reduces the time between engaging with end
users and delivering a solution
§ Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of
individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of
rules and a proper regulatory framework co-designed between
governments, industries and societies
IMS 2020 Vision
24. 3. FORESIGHT TOOLS
– NEVER THE FIRST STEP
The following tools provide
examples of methods and
software IFI applies in its
assignments.
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25. IFI TECHNOLOGY MAPS
Technology Map can be customized from broad market landscapes to
microscopic detail, helping you to make the right claims. It augments
traditional cognitive IPR and technology mapping processes with powerful
statistical, visual and On-Line tools.
How it works
Client defines strategic objectives and technologies for mapping
Explore visualization the landscape and your position therein, and receive our analysis
of the nature of innovation dynamics
Access result on-line from anywhere to refine results and for ready analytics and graph
For Who and Why
Start-Ups. Convince potential investors and collaborators what you’re innovation and IPR
is really worth.
R&D Management. Foresight that you’re investment and R&D programme is not heading
for an dead end, and optimize patenting effort.
Large Companies. Align your business lines with your patents, and start monitoring that
you’re new inventions match strategic priorities.
R&D Funding Bodies. Idenfity most potential and best strategies for R&D&I programming
and instruments or evaluate what’s accomplished
M&A. Document, match and visualize rapidly how IPR portfolios overlap or augment
each other.
Investors and Finance. Analyse industry trends and firm potential.
Technology Map’s are always tailored per client specification, and they are
delivered with with SaaS On-Line tools.
25In partnership with Tecmine.
26. IFI FORESIGHT PLATFORM
IFI Foresight Platform provides a robust online
platform for a structured stakeholder and
expert online engagement in foresight projects.
User interface
Submission, commenting and assessment of emerging
issues, innovation ideas, challenges etc.
Backend
Advanced filtering of inputs and graphical presentation
and interactive analysis of results.
The SaaS platform is always customised to the
client needs.
In partnership with Orchidea.
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27. IFI RPM SCREENING
Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM) Tools
managed by the IFI experts allow
interactive analysis of the multi-criteria
assessed issues.
Such analysis help identify issues that
are interesting not only with respect to
one but many criteria, for instance:
Relevance
Novelty
Feasibility
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Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
28. IFI ONLINE SURVEYS
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IFI Online Surveys practice relies on the commercial
solutions of online survey providers.
The robust solutions allow intuitive user-friendly
surveys and their efficient management, incl.
flexible exportation of results for further analysis.
The IFI has extensive experience in the design and
architecture of surveys to reach the optimal
balance between user experience and research
insights for strategy work.
31. KEY MESSAGES
1. Foresight – for the whole policy cycle
2. Foresight designs – always customised
3. Foresight tools – never the first step
4. To conclude – engage the 'client'
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33. MANAGING DIRECTOR
Totti Könnölä
Background: Impetu Solutions, EIT, UP
Comillas, IE Business School, JCR-IPTS, VTT
DIRECTOR OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
David Cano
Background: TECOPY, IDOM
DIRECTOR OF FINANCE & OPERATIONS
Miguel Maté
Background: Telekom Austria
WE CONNECT OUR COMMUNITY WITH THE
ECOSYSTEM TO SPARK TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE
High-level Advisory Board
•Renowned global leaders and thinkers
Innovation Council
•Recognised senior experts and mentors
Expert Network
•Experts engaged in projects
Strategic Alliances
•Strategic partner organisations
OPEN COMMUNITYLEADERSHIP
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34. Ben Martin (UK)
•SPRU, Univ. of Sussex
•(University of Cambridge)
Charles W. Wessner (US)
•Georgetown Univ.
•(National Academy of Sciences)
Dan Breznitz (CA)
•University of Toronto, Munk School of
Global Affairs
•(Georgia Tech, MIT)
Dirk Pilat (NL/FR)
• OECD Directorate for Science,
Technology and Innovation
• (OECD Committee on Industry,
Innovation and Entrepreneurship)
Emma Fernández (ES)
•Advisor, Corporate Leader
•(Indra)
Gonzalo León (ES)
•Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
•(Ministry of Education and Culture,
Science and Technology Ministry)
Göran Roos (SE/AU)
•Value Add and Ind. Growth, Econ. Dev.
Board in Adelaide
•(Innovation Performance Australia,VTT)
John Kao (US)
•Institute for Large Scale Innovation
•(Global Advisory Council on Innovation
of WEF, Harvard Business School)
Ken Guy (UK)
•Wise Guys, Ltd
•(OECD, EC JRC-IPTS, Technopolis)
Kurt Deketelaere (BE)
•LERU
•(Flemish Gov., Univ. Of Leuven)
Maria Bejuméa (ES)
•Startup Spain (South Summit)
•(Serial entrepreneur)
Mariana Mazzucato (IT/US)
•SPRU, Univ. Of Sussex
•(INNOGEN, The Open University)
Ray Garcia (US)
•Buoyant Capital
•(University of Pisa, MIT Media Lab,
University of Arizona)
Riel Milller (CA/FR)
•UNESCO
•(xperidox, OECD)
Ron Johnston (AU)
•Australian Centre of Innovation
•(Australian Commission for the Future)
HIGH LEVEL ADVISORY BOARD THRIVES OUR
STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT AND PARTNERSHIPS
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