Oil Factor


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Oil Factor

  1. 1. oil 2009/02/19-Shawn, Edward
  2. 2. geographic location sulfur content API gravity( measure density) ex: West Texas , Brent , or Oman If its API gravity is greater than 10 , it is lighter and floats on water; if less than 10, it will sink. Light: API>31.1 Medium:22.3<API<31.1 Heavy : API<22.3 , 40-45 higher price L>H Sweet: relative less sulfur Sour: more sulfur Sweet >Sou r
  3. 3. known as Texas Light Sweet , is a type of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing and the underlying commodity of New York Mercantile Exchange 's oil futures contracts . NYMX CL=WTI? a very high-quality, sweet, light oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma for North American oil Delivery F.O.B. seller's facility, Cushing, Oklahoma,
  4. 4. comprising 15 oils from fields in the Brent and Ninian systems in the East Shetland Basin of the North Sea . The oil is landed at Sullom Voe terminal in the Shetlands . Oil production from Europe, Africa and Middle Eastern oil flowing West tends to be priced off the price of this oil, which forms a benchmark ICE Brent >Wti
  5. 6. Production & Consumption <ul><li>Production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil deposit in Mideast </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Laherrere </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US Petroleum production prediction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hubbert’s peak </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Consumption </li></ul>
  6. 7. Hubbertpeak.com <ul><li>Hubbert’s law -Hubbert’s curve -Hubbert’s peak </li></ul><ul><ul><li>According to this model, the rate of oil production is determined by the rate of new oil well discovery. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The relative steepness of the projected rate of decline of the production curve is the main cause for concern about the economic and social impact of Peak Oil. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This is because a steep drop in the production curve implies that global oil production will decline so rapidly that the world will not have enough time to develop sources of energy to replace the energy now used from oil. ---wiki </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>His prediction in 1956 that U.S.oil production would peak in about 1970 and decline thereafter was scoffed at then but his analysis has since proved to be remarkably accurate </li></ul></ul>
  7. 8. US prediction <ul><li>Hubbert, in his 1956 paper, [3]  presented two scenarios for US conventional oil production (crude oil + condensate): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>most likely estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equal to 6%, an ultimate resource equal to 150 Giga-barrels (Gb) and a peak in 1965. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>upper-bound estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equal to 6% and ultimate resource equal to 200 Giga-barrels and a peak in 1970 . </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A post-hoc analysis of peaked oil wells, fields, regions and nations found that Hubbert's model was the &quot; most widely useful &quot;(providing the best fit to the data), though many areas studied had a sharper &quot;peak&quot; than predicted. [6] </li></ul>
  8. 9. US prediction Hubbert's upper-bound estimate, which he regarded as optimistic, accurately predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970. Forty years later , the upper-bound estimate has also proven to be very accurate in terms of cumulative production, less so in terms of annual production. For 2005, the upper-bound Hubbert model predicts 178.2 Gb cumulative and 1.17 Gb current production; actual US production was 176.4 Gb cumulative crude oil + condensate ( 1% lower than the upper bound estimate ), with annual production of 1.55 Gb (32% higher than the upper bound estimate).
  9. 10. Widespread application It also used for the predictions of Natural gas , Coal , Fissionable materials, Metals, Phosphorus , Peak water , Fisheries . Norway's oil production and a Hubbert curve approximating it.‎
  10. 11. Oil deposit in Mideast - No answered question <ul><li>The End of Cheap Oil;  March 1998; Scientific American Magazine; by Campbell, Laherrere; 6 Page(s) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In 1973 and 1979 a pair of sudden price increases rudely awakened the industrial world to its dependence on cheap crude oil. Prices first tripled in response to an Arab embargo and then nearly doubled again when Iran dethroned its Shah, sending the major economies sputtering into recession. Many analysts warned that these crises proved that the world would soon run out of oil. Yet they were wrong. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Their dire predictions were emotional and political reactions; even at the time, oil experts knew that they had no scientific basis. Just a few years earlier oil explorers had discovered enormous new oil provinces on the north slope of Alaska and below the North Sea off the coast of Europe. By 1973 the world had consumed, according to many experts best estimates, only about one eighth of its endowment of readily accessible crude oil (so-called conventional oil). The five Middle Eastern members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) were able to hike prices not because oil was growing scarce but because they had managed to corner 36 percent of the market. Later, when demand sagged, and the flow of fresh Alaskan and North Sea oil weakened OPEC’s economic stranglehold, prices collapsed. </li></ul></ul>
  11. 12. Production(thousand barrels/day) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html
  12. 13. Consumption -http://www.bp.com