WHAT DRIVES THE ROLE OF RAILWAYS IN URBAN TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT? Dr. Andreas Kopp World Bank, GP Transport and ICT

1. URBAN TRANSPORT,
SUSTAINABILITY AND THE ECONOMY
WHAT DRIVES THE ROLE OF RAILWAYS
IN URBAN TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT?
Dr. Andreas Kopp
World Bank, GP Transport and ICT
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2. Overview
1. The richer countries are, the greater are differences in
transport energy use
2. Sustainability from a transport perspective:
Without modal shift transport will continue to have high
oil demand
3. Top ranking energy efficient countries have high shares
of public transport and high shares of rail in cities.
4. The role of urban rail:
High population density pays off high fixed costs
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3. Figure 1. Countries have a choice: energy
consumption in road transport can be low at high
per capita incomes
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4. SUSTAINABILITY FROM A TRANSPORT PERSPECTIVE:
TRANSPORT WITHOUT MODAL SHIFT IS NOT TO CONTRIBUTE
TO FALLING OIL PRICES
• Focus on car policies in global energy policies
• Scenarios of transport futures without modal shift do not
offer the perspective of decreasing global fossil fuel
demand
• Both regulatory and pricing scenarios do not achieve a
deep reduction in fuel use in transport
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5. WITHOUT POLICY CHANGE:
TRANSPORT DEMAND FOR OIL WILL GROW
Without policy action the sector will become the dominant
consumer of fossil fuels
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Oil consumption increases in the medium term… and in the long
Source: IEA (2009). Source: Clarke (2007).

6. OPTIMISTIC REGULATORY SCENARIO
FOR CAR TECHNOLOGY TO STABILIZE GHG CONCENTRATION
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7. CARBON PRICING TO STABILIZE GHG CONCENTRATIONS
WILL LEAD TO STEEPLY INCREASING FUEL PRICES
Carbon price paths depend on biofuels and CCS
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8. STABILIZING CARBON PRICES WILL NOT AVOID
INCREASING OIL DEMAND UNTIL 2050
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Source: Clarke and Calvin (2008).

9. REASONS FOR SUSTAINED EXPANSION IN OIL DEMAND
• Limited substitution opportunities of fossil fuels in
individual mobility
• Strong increase in motorization without appropriate
measures to induce modal shift
• Neglect of policies and investment to change the modal
composition of demand
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10. COSTS FOR INDIVIDUAL TRANSPORT
SHAPE CITIES’ SIZE AND DENSITY
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Transport costs, city size and land rent gradient
land rent
distance from center
higher urban transport costs,
high aggl. economies
lower urban transport costs

11. DENSITY AND COMPETITIVE POSITION OF MODES
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Removal of fuel subsidies, and implementation of fiscal signals on external costs move
cutting points for bus and rail to the left, because of their higher social costs.
r a i l
bus
car
average costs
Intensity of use

12. Local External Costs Dominate Individual Mobility
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13. DENSITY AND SHARE OF URBAN RAIL
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Share of trips to work by public rail (%)

14. NATIONAL ENERGY INTENSITIES ARE REFLECTED
IN HIGH PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND RAIL SHARES
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15. SUMMARY
• Countries have a policy choice:
Differences in energy efficiency are large in high income
countries
• Energy efficiency is achieved by a high share of public
transport in cities, and a high share of rail passenger
transport
• Energy efficiency generates health benefits (reduced
local air pollution and accidents) and substantial fiscal
surplus
• Rail transport relies on intense demand of large and
dense cities to justify the high fixed investment
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16. Thank you!
Please send questions or suggestions to
akopp@worldbank.org
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